Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known in the betting world as "Jones Knows"—offers a thorough breakdown of the upcoming Premier League fixtures and the betting angles that accompany them. First, let’s examine Oliver Glasner’s remarkable head‑to‑head record against Unai Emery. Glasner has never lost in seven meetings with the Spanish manager, winning five of those encounters. What makes this statistic particularly compelling is the quality of the performances: in the last five league clashes, Glasner’s sides have generated an average of 2.47 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes.
This suggests that Glasner has identified a systematic way to dismantle Emery’s tactical blueprint. His teams tend to sit back, invite the opponent to dominate possession, and then explode into quick, incisive attacks when the opposition overcommits. The market has not fully priced this advantage, which is why a draw‑no‑bet on Forest at 5/4 from Sky Bet appears overly generous.
Turning to Brentford, the betting public has been buzzing about the club after a promising start under Keith Andrews. However, a 1‑1 draw with Sunderland exposed some lingering frailties. While the sample size is still limited, Brentford’s aggression and pressing intensity have risen noticeably. Their high‑turnover rate has increased by 3.1 per 90 minutes, and they are now committing roughly 6.2 more fouls per game than they did last season.
Vitaly Janelt has been a catalyst for this shift, racking up ten fouls in just four matches and receiving a booking in each of the three Premier League games he has played. When he faces a midfielder like Adam Scott—who averages more than two fouls per match—and a forward such as Justin Kluivert, who was fouled three times in a recent Newcastle game, Janelt is likely to be in the thick of the action. The market’s 7/4 price for him to be penalised with two or more fouls offers solid value. Hull City arrive at Stamford Bridge with a surprisingly strong defensive record: seven points from three games and three consecutive clean sheets.
Their adaptation to top‑flight football has been nothing short of spectacular, and it is clear that this is not a fluke typical of newly promoted sides. Hull’s defensive system is highly disciplined, and while their xG figures suggest they have benefited from a degree of luck, the underlying organization cannot be ignored. Over their last 16 league matches in which they have possessed the ball less than 45% of the time and started as underdogs (odds greater than 2/1), they have conceded only nine goals, lost just twice, and seen an average of just 1.7 goals per game.
Remarkably, only two of those goals have come in the first half, underscoring their ability to start strongly and keep opponents at bay. The upcoming clash with Chelsea pits Hull’s compact, low‑block approach against a Chelsea side that, on paper, boasts a formidable attacking pedigree. Betting markets currently anticipate a high‑scoring encounter, with the expected‑goals line hovering around 3.25.
Given Hull’s proven capacity to frustrate opponents and limit scoring opportunities, we believe the market is overestimating Chelsea’s firepower. A more cautious wager—such as taking Hull at 11/1 for an away win—may undervalue their chances, while a draw‑no‑bet on Hull could be a shrewd move.
Additionally, using the BuildABet tool to secure even odds on both under 1.5 first‑half goals and under 3.5 total goals aligns well with Hull’s track record of low‑scoring, defensively solid games. In the lower‑tier matchups, Ipswich’s 2‑1 loss to Liverpool may conceal a surprisingly respectable performance, leaving manager Gary O’Neil upbeat about his side’s progress. Conversely, Crystal Palace’s victory at Fulham was accompanied by a dominant performance in most statistical categories, yet the team’s defensive shape under Glasner remains a concern.
Conceding eight goals in three games is unsustainable, which makes the 10/11 odds for a home win appear tempting. However, whether Ipswich can be trusted as a reliable betting proposition remains an open question; a draw at 23/10 could be the safer option.
Fulham’s defensive setup under Alvaro Arbeloa has become erratic, lacking the stability that Marco Silva once provided. The resulting open spaces are likely to benefit Liverpool’s quick‑transition style, setting the stage for a goal‑rich encounter.
Offensively, Fulham have been impressive, registering the highest number of touches inside the opposition box across the league. Josh King has emerged as a key figure, drawing attention from the England set‑up after a strong start. His ability to influence play from a free‑role makes him an attractive betting option; Sky Bet offers 9/2 on King to find the net. Turning to Tottenham, the team’s attacking output has been anemic; they have yet to score a league goal this season, enduring 317 minutes without a breakthrough since their last goal against Everton in May.
Historically, Spurs have opened the scoring in each of their first four league games, suggesting that this drought could be an anomaly that soon ends. Everton’s attack, however, mirrors Tottenham’s in terms of chance quality over the first three fixtures, hinting at a low‑scoring affair.
A bet on under 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Sky Bet seems well‑placed. Arsenal are being priced as overwhelming favourites at 4/9, but the real intrigue lies in Sunderland’s defensive resilience at home and Arsenal’s congested schedule, which includes midweek Champions League commitments. A controlled Arsenal win rather than a blowout is more realistic, and the market appears to have overlooked this nuance. One player prop worth noting is Bukayo Saka, who has already won ten fouls in three Premier League appearances—second most in the division.
His opponent, Reinildo Mandava, committed five fouls against Saka last season, indicating a high likelihood of further fouls. Sky Bet’s 7/4 price for Saka to win three or more fouls offers decent value.
Coventry’s three‑game losing streak should not cause panic. Historically, only one of the twelve promoted clubs that began a Premier League campaign with three defeats managed to avoid relegation. If the pattern continues, the 2/1 odds from Sky Bet on Coventry finishing bottom could become a popular wager. Brighton currently lead the league in expected goals, open‑play crosses, and big‑chance creation.
The 17/20 odds for an away win from Sky Bet are expected to attract significant action. Manchester United’s long‑term outlook under Michael Carrick remains uncertain due to concerning defensive metrics. Nevertheless, Carrick has demonstrated a knack for extracting strong performances against top‑tier opposition. In eight matches against the traditional "big six" plus Aston Villa, United have secured seven wins and one draw, averaging 2.25 goals scored per 90 minutes—a figure the market is undervaluing.
With Sky Bet offering 21/10 for a United win (implying a 33% probability), the odds appear generous given United’s home advantage and Carrick’s record. A home win bet is advisable. Newcastle’s recent 2‑2 draw with Bournemouth highlighted the volatility of Matthias Jaissle’s rebuilding project. The team has netted six goals despite an expected‑goals tally of just three and has faced the highest number of shots of any side this season, suggesting an overperformance that could be unsustainable.
Leeds United remain a dependable betting option. Under Daniel Farke, they have avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches, combining solid defensive organization with an assertive attack.
Sky Bet’s 11/8 odds for a Leeds win reflect this consistency. A secondary angle involves Matías Fernández‑Pardo, who could earn his first start for Newcastle after two substitute appearances. The £51 million signing was a key player for Lille last season, accumulating 15 yellow cards in just over 3,000 minutes—a respectable rate.
Conversely, Ethan Ampadu’s propensity for bookings (10 cards last season) makes the 3/1 price for him to receive a card an attractive proposition. Finally, remember to enter the Super 6 competition for a chance at a £1 million prize—entry is free.