The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh in the league. For almost two years—some fans would argue even longer—analysts, supporters and pundits have been dissecting the reasons behind this decline. The coming twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers, confined within the four walls of the organisation, finally recognise that their trajectory has been heading downhill. The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport.
In complex systems, a tiny alteration can trigger massive, unforeseen consequences. If the Saints' recent slump is the metaphorical tornado, what was the minute wing‑flap that set it in motion? To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens lifted their first Super League trophy in five years.
The story begins in mid‑2017 when the club, then languishing around mid‑table, dismissed head coach Keiron Cunningham and appointed Justin Holbrook. After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017—courtesy of a Luke Gale drop‑goal—and a disappointing 2018 season despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a redemption year. The Saints dominated, losing only three games all season and cruising to the top of the table. Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented the belief that St Helens were back on top.
That squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and imported Australian stars, featuring Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote—all in their mid‑to‑late twenties and at the peak of their powers. When Holbrook departed, Kristian Woolf took the reins and, according to Woolf himself, the COVID‑19 shutdown may have saved his job. The season was halted after losses to Huddersfield Giants and Castleford Tigers, giving Woolf time to discuss expectations with his players.
The result was a partnership between a demanding coach and a group hungry for success, which produced one of the most memorable Grand Final tries ever scored by Jack Welsby in 2020, as well as a Challenge Cup, a League Leaders' Shield and another league title. The momentum seemed unstoppable until the World Club Challenge in 2023, when the Saints travelled to Australia to face the Penrith Panthers.
Few gave them a chance, yet a golden‑point drop‑goal from Lewis Dodd became an iconic moment, and St Helens returned home with the world title, planting their flag on the highest summit. Having achieved everything imaginable, the club faced a pivotal question: what comes next?
Should they begin a transition, rely on the same core, or attempt a hybrid approach? The answer was “Option B.” Option B meant rewarding the senior players—Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata'utia—with upgraded contracts as they entered their thirties. In a salary‑capped competition, each raise reduces the space available for new signings, younger talent and even the ability to retain existing stars at previous levels.
A £2.1 million cap is a finite resource; if the club continually inflates contracts, the margin for fresh acquisitions shrinks dramatically. Either the club must become ruthlessly pragmatic, or it must convince veteran players to accept lower wages than they earned in their prime—a difficult proposition.
Over the next three seasons under Paul Wellens—who moved from captain to assistant coach and then, after a decade on the coaching staff, to head coach—the Saints made only eleven signings to replace departing stalwarts such as Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Tommy Makinson, Lewis Dodd and Sione Mata'utia. The new arrivals—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were a mix of experienced imports and promising prospects.
Wright and Cross were only available because Salford Red Devils collapsed financially. Critics argue that the incoming players have not matched the quality of those they replaced.
Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment policy as "Moneyball," borrowing a term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics. In theory, Moneyball means identifying undervalued skills—high tackle counts, metres gained, defensive work rate—and signing players who excel in those areas despite lacking star power. Rush admitted that the club often gets it wrong, taking risks on overseas talent without a clear picture of salary‑cap value.
He cited Waqa Blake, a Grand Final NRL participant, as an example of a player whose résumé alone did not guarantee success, but who was signed because he fit the club’s cap constraints. The reality, however, is that the Saints did not replace like‑for‑like. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin labelled the recruitment “shocking” and “terrible,” accusing the club of making short‑term, convenient choices that left the squad fragile. Young players were thrust into Super League before they were ready, a symptom of an ageing core that could not endure a full season without injury.
The financial landscape had also shifted: clubs such as Wigan, Wakefield, York and Leigh have increased their wage offers, meaning St Helens can no longer dominate the market as they once did. The consequences became evident in 2026. Veteran forwards Jonny Lomax and Mark Percival combined for just fourteen games, offering far less impact than in their prime.
Long‑time figures Paul Wellens, James Roby and Mike Rush all departed within a short span, eroding institutional memory that had guided the club since the 1990s. Early‑season injuries to captain Matty Lees and enforcer Morgan Knowles further weakened the team’s spine. Under Wellens, the Saints finished third, sixth and fifth in successive seasons, scraping semi‑final play‑off spots but failing to recapture the dominance of the previous decade.
The board deemed those results insufficient given the resources on hand and appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to reverse the slide. Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed ahead of the high‑profile clash with Wigan Warriors in Round 20, leaving fans to wonder how the season might have unfolded had injuries not plagued the squad and his tactical ideas not clashed with the club’s ingrained DNA.
The Saints now look to Australian head coach Kevin Walters for a fresh start. Former Saint James Graham even sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the motto "Never write off the Saints" still resonates. Walters, known for fostering strong team cultures and advocating for his players, has hinted at significant signings and a willingness to invest heavily to restore on‑field quality. In summary, the tiny "wing‑flap" that triggered the 2026 tornado was not a single transfer or a single injury but a series of incremental decisions: the choice to reward an ageing core with ever‑larger contracts, the adoption of a Moneyball‑style recruitment that failed to replace talent on a like‑for‑like basis, and the reluctance to inject fresh, high‑impact players when the salary cap began to tighten.
By opting for "Option B"—to stand still rather than continue evolving—the club inadvertently set the stage for a dramatic decline. Sport, like any complex system, rewards continual adaptation. St Helens’ recent history demonstrates that when evolution stalls, regression follows.
The next chapter will hinge on whether the new leadership can re‑ignite that metaphorical wing, generate positive turbulence, and steer the Saints back toward the summit of the Super League. The regular season will close with Round 27 on Thursday, 10 September, live on Sky Sports, offering a final opportunity to gauge whether the club has learned from its past missteps.