The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time after finishing seventh this season. For almost two years—some fans would argue even longer—analysts, commentators and supporters have been dissecting the causes of this decline.
The next twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers inside the four walls finally recognise that their trajectory has been heading downhill. The famous question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—has become a convenient metaphor for sport. In the context of the Saints, we must ask: can a tiny, seemingly insignificant change trigger a cascade of consequences that ultimately reshapes a complex system like a professional rugby league club? If the 2026 slump is the tornado, what was the initial wing‑flap that set it in motion?
To answer that, we need to rewind to 2019, the year St Helens reclaimed the Super League crown after a five‑year drought. Mid‑season 2017 found the club languishing mid‑table, prompting the board to part ways with head coach Keiron Cunningham and appoint Justin Holbrook. After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017—courtesy of a Luke Gale drop‑goal—and a disappointing 2018 campaign despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a turning point. The Saints dominated, losing only three games and cruising to the top of the ladder.
Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented their return to the summit. That squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports in their prime: Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote were all in their mid‑to‑late twenties, playing at the peak of their abilities. The club then faced a coaching change, bringing in Kristian Woolf.
Woolf later claimed that the COVID‑19 shutdown actually saved his job, as the season was halted just after a loss to Huddersfield Giants and Castleford Tigers. When play resumed, Woolf consulted his players about expectations and style, forging a partnership between a disciplined coach and an ambitious group.
The result was a spectacular Grand Final try by Jack Welsby in 2020, followed by two more league titles, a Challenge Cup, and a League Leaders’ Shield. The momentum continued into 2023 when St Helens travelled to Australia for the World Club Challenge. Few believed they could topple the Penrith Panthers, yet a golden‑point drop‑goal from Lewis Dodd became one of the most iconic moments in British rugby league. Paul Wellens, a club legend who had moved from captain to assistant coach, was promoted to head coach after a decade on the coaching staff.
Under his guidance, the Saints appeared unstoppable. So what came next? Should the club begin a transition, rely on the same core group, or pursue a hybrid approach? The answer was option B: retain the star players while rewarding them with upgraded contracts.
In a salary‑capped competition, this strategy is fraught with risk. Players such as Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata’utia were now entering their thirties, and their contracts reflected their achievements.
However, each contract upgrade ate further into the £2.1 million cap, leaving less room for new signings or for younger talent to earn competitive wages. Over the following three seasons, Wellens made just eleven additions to replace departing stalwarts like Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Dodd and Mata’utia. The newcomers—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely acquired on a shoestring budget, some becoming available only because Salford Red Devils faced financial collapse. Critics argue that these signings have not matched the quality of the players they replaced, leaving gaps in key positions.
Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment policy as “Moneyball”, borrowing the term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics’ data‑driven approach. In theory, you identify undervalued skills—high tackle counts, metres gained, work‑rate—and sign players who excel in those metrics while staying under the cap. In practice, Rush admitted the club often gets it wrong, taking risks on overseas talent without a clear picture of their true salary‑cap value.
He noted that Waqa Blake’s NRL Grand Final experience did not automatically make him a great fit for St Helens; he was signed because he fit the cap constraints and the club’s perceived needs. The result was a squad that, while still containing elite talent, was not a like‑for‑like replacement of the previous generation. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin called the recruitment “shocking” and “terrible”, accusing the club of short‑term, convenient choices that failed to preserve the team’s durability.
Young players were thrust into the Super League before they were ready, and the ageing core suffered injuries and a natural decline in performance. Compounding the problem, other clubs have closed the wage gap.
Wigan, Wakefield, York, Leigh and several others now have the financial muscle to outbid St Helens for top talent. As the quality of signings fell, senior players such as Lomax and Percival managed only 14 games between them in 2026, offering far less impact than in their prime.
Meanwhile, key staff—including Wellens, Roby and Rush—departed within a short period, stripping the club of institutional memory dating back to the 1990s. Injuries further hampered the Saints.
Captain Matty Lees missed large portions of the season, and enforcer Morgan Knowles left for the NRL, weakening the team’s physical edge. Under Wellens, the Saints finished third, sixth and fifth in successive seasons, reaching the play‑off semi‑finals twice but failing to recapture the dominance of earlier years.
The board deemed those results unacceptable and hired Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to reverse the trend. Rowley lasted less than a season before being dismissed ahead of the Round 20 clash with rivals Wigan Warriors. It is impossible to know how the season would have unfolded under Rowley, given the injury list and the apparent mis‑fit of his systems with the club’s DNA. What is clear is that St Helens ended the campaign in seventh place, missing the play‑offs for the first time in a decade.
In response, the club turned to Australian head coach Kevin Walters, hoping his reputation for fostering strong team cultures and his willingness to splash cash on marquee signings will restore the Saints to the top. Former player James Graham even sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the mantra “Never write off the Saints” still resonates. So, what was the original “wing‑flap” that sparked the 2026 tornado?
In hindsight, it appears the club spent four years refusing to flap its wings at all—opting for stability and incremental contract upgrades rather than bold recruitment or strategic renewal. In a sport where evolution is essential, stagnation became a self‑fulfilling prophecy. The decision to pursue option B—maintaining the status quo while the salary cap eroded—set the stage for the decline. The Saints’ story illustrates that even the most successful organisations must continuously adapt; otherwise, the smallest oversight can snowball into a full‑blown crisis.
The regular Super League season will conclude with Round 27 on Thursday, 10 September, live on Sky Sports.