Kimi Antonelli's remarkable victory at the Italian Grand Prix seemed to mark a turning point in this year's Formula One championship. By climbing from 19th on the grid to the top step of the podium, he delivered a psychological blow to his rivals and solidified his position at the summit of the standings. After the race Antonelli leads George Russell by 66 points, Lewis Hamilton by 76 points and Lando Norris by 96 points, with ten more rounds still to be contested.
There is little doubt that the Italian driver is now the favourite to claim the title. If he succeeds, he will become the youngest world champion in the sport's history. Yet, despite the size of his lead, the season is far from decided.
Monza's ultra‑long straights place an extraordinary demand on engine power, and Mercedes have traditionally been the benchmark in that area. Although the FIA confirmed earlier in the year that Red Bull's power unit is technically the best, it was Mercedes' clever exploitation of the electrical component of their hybrid system that gave them the edge at Monza. The team managed to extract more performance from the ERS without breaching any regulations, allowing them to dominate the high‑speed sections. No other circuit on the calendar will test the power unit to the same extreme as Monza, although both Baku later this month and the upcoming Las Vegas street race feature lengthy full‑throttle zones.
Those tracks, however, contain far more corners than Monza, meaning overall car balance and aerodynamic efficiency will play a larger role. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff reflected on the result: "I'm quite happy that we could deliver the performance we showed at Monza, especially after Ferrari introduced an engine upgrade and other teams made chassis developments. This is a development race, but we have to remember that Monza is an outlier – it sits at one extreme of the calendar, with Monaco representing the opposite end." The next event, a brand‑new race in Madrid, is a complete mystery. Early layouts suggest a very twisty circuit where cornering speed will be crucial.
That should favour teams such as McLaren and Ferrari, whose cars excel in the medium‑speed sections. Following Madrid, the season will head to Azerbaijan, a race that can turn chaotic very quickly, then to the more traditional venues of Sepang in Malaysia, the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico.
Those tracks are expected to bring the field closer together, especially as teams continue to roll out upgrades. McLaren entered the two races before Monza with a car capable of winning. Lando Norris demonstrated that by taking victories in Hungary and the Netherlands, showing that the team can compete at the front when the circuit suits their strengths. Most teams have already harvested significant performance gains from new parts, yet Mercedes have announced that they will not bring any upgrades until the Malaysian Grand Prix at the start of next month.
Wolff cautioned against complacency: "We must not get ahead of ourselves thinking we can wait until Malaysia for an upgrade. We know Madrid will be a tough fight. Our car does not have the same performance level we displayed at Monza, so we have to make the most of what we have. Even if we don't win every race, scoring solid points will be vital for the championship." McLaren boss Andrea Stella outlined a realistic goal for his squad: to stay consistently in the hunt for wins right up to the final race.
"Our best tracks are likely to be Malaysia, Austin and Brazil, where we have long corners that allow the car to show its potential," he said. "We have some new upgrades that we will bring to Baku, but circuits like Baku and Madrid require extremely precise line selection and short, tight corners, which may not play to the strengths of our package. Still, we proved in Zandvoort and Hungary that we can fight for victory, and Monza, while unique, showed us what a special race looks like." Stella added that drag will be less of a factor in Madrid due to the higher density of corners, and the team will certainly give it their all. "From a championship perspective we have to stay realistic, not let the classification dictate our mindset, and focus on one race at a time," he emphasized.
Antonelli, only 20 years old and in his second season, is already being described as a generational talent. His raw speed has been the decisive factor all year, and he has avoided the typical rookie mistakes that often plague young drivers. Nonetheless, the remaining races will test his composure, whether through tighter competition, unpredictable weather, or the occasional mechanical gremlin. "It has been a very strong year so far, but there are still many races left, so anything can happen," Antonelli remarked.
"We have seen how quickly things can swing. My approach is to take each race one at a time, focus on what I can control, and maximise every opportunity. In Monza we were the fastest, but you never know what the next circuit will bring – maybe McLaren, maybe Ferrari, maybe Red Bull with Max Verstappen." If McLaren or Ferrari find a performance edge in the upcoming events and Antonelli fails to reach the podium, rivals such as Hamilton or Norris could reap double‑digit points gains in a single Grand Prix, increasing the pressure on the young Italian.
The situation looks even more challenging for George Russell, who drives the same machinery as Antonelli but has struggled to match his teammate's pace. It is difficult to envision a rapid turnaround for Russell, especially if McLaren or Ferrari dominate the final ten rounds. Wolff summed up the state of the championship succinctly: "It's motor racing.
It's a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen, and that's why we have to do our best for both drivers and keep bringing our best game." Formula 1 now heads to the new Madring circuit for the Spanish Grand Prix, with every session broadcast live on Sky Sports F1. Viewers can stream the coverage via NOW – no long‑term contract required and cancellation at any time.