Kimi Antonelli's remarkable triumph at the Italian Grand Prix felt like a watershed moment in this season's title fight, delivering a psychological blow to his rivals by climbing from 19th on the grid to the top step of the podium. The victory catapulted Antonelli into a commanding position: he now leads George Russell by 66 points, Lewis Hamilton by 76 points and Lando Norris by 96 points, with ten races still on the calendar.
Undeniably, the Italian driver has become the favourite to claim the championship, and if he succeeds he will also become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history. Yet the campaign is far from decided, and a number of variables could reshuffle the standings before the season concludes.
Monza's ultra‑long straights place a premium on raw engine power, and Mercedes have traditionally set the benchmark in that department. Although the FIA confirmed earlier in the year that Red Bull's power unit is technically the most efficient, Mercedes have managed to extract more performance from the electrical side of their hybrid system, a factor that was not directly measured by the governing body.
This advantage helped them dominate the high‑speed sections of the circuit. Few upcoming venues will demand the same extreme power‑unit output as Monza. Baku, with its lengthy full‑throttle stretch, and the brand‑new Las Vegas street circuit in November also feature long straights, but both tracks contain a significantly higher number of corners, which reduces the overall emphasis on sheer horsepower.
Consequently, teams that excel in cornering and aerodynamic efficiency may find better opportunities later in the year. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff reflected on the Monza result, noting, "I'm quite happy, first of all, that we were able to perform in Monza like we did, because we weren't sure.
Ferrari brought an engine upgrade and others on the chassis side, and this is a development race. But we have to consider the fact that Monza is an outlier on the track.
It's on one end, and then there is Monaco on the other." The next round, a brand‑new race in Madrid, is a complete mystery. The circuit layout appears highly twisty, favouring cars that are strong in the medium‑speed corners – a characteristic that should benefit both McLaren and Ferrari. After Madrid, the calendar moves to Azerbaijan, a venue notorious for chaotic races, followed by more traditional tracks such as Sepang in Malaysia, Austin in the United States and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico. Those circuits are expected to produce tighter battles, especially if teams can introduce meaningful upgrades.
McLaren entered the season with a car capable of winning, as demonstrated by Lando Norris's superb drives to victory in Hungary and the Netherlands. However, the majority of teams have seen noticeable performance gains after fitting new aerodynamic and mechanical components.
Mercedes, by contrast, have announced that they will not bring any fresh parts until the Malaysian Grand Prix at the start of next month. Wolff cautioned against complacency: "We must not get ahead of ourselves now, thinking, 'well, we can wait for the upgrade until Malaysia'.
We know that it's going to be a big fight in Madrid. Our car hasn't got the performance levels that it has in Monza for the next race in Madrid. We know that our upgrades would help a lot in Madrid but we haven't got them. So we just need to do our best and that could mean that some of the race weekends, not winning, but just scoring points." McLaren boss Andrea Stella outlined a realistic goal for his team: to be consistently in the mix for wins right up to the final race.
"I think our tracks will be more the likes of Malaysia, Austin, Brazil. I think where we have some long corners, the car seems to express its potential well," Stella said. He added that while the team has new upgrades slated for Baku, circuits with many short, precise corners – such as Baku and Madrid – may not play to the car's strengths.
"Yet we have to say that in Zandvoort and Hungary we were in a position to win races and in Monza while we were not, we know that it's a special race. The drag will be less important in Madrid, there's a much higher density of corners, so we will definitely give it a go, but from a championship point of view I think we have to remain very realistic, don't get conditioned by looking at the classification, just focus on one race at a time." Antonelli, now only 20 years old and in his second full season, has shown a level of speed that many seasoned drivers have yet to achieve. His rapid rise has not been accompanied by the typical rookie mistakes that often plague young talents.
Nonetheless, the remaining races will inevitably test his composure, whether through tighter competition, unpredictable weather, or the occasional mechanical failure. "Definitely it's been a very strong year so far, but still many races left and so, still anything can happen," Antonelli remarked. "And we've seen how things can swing very quickly. So, on my side, as I said many times, just take it race by race, focus on things that I can control and just maximise every opportunity I get.
In Monza we were fastest, but we never know. We might go to another track and all of a sudden, McLaren is the fastest, or Ferrari is up there, or even Red Bull, with Max." If McLaren or Ferrari find themselves with the fastest car over several consecutive rounds and Antonelli fails to finish on the podium, his rivals – Hamilton, Norris or even Russell – could seize double‑digit points hauls, intensifying the pressure on the young Italian.
Russell's situation appears more precarious; he shares the same machinery as Antonelli but has struggled to match his teammate's pace, and there is no clear indication that this gap will close. Wolff summed up the state of the championship succinctly: "It's motor racing.
It's a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen and that's why we have to do our best job for both drivers. Continue to bring our best game." The Formula 1 circus now heads to the newly built Madring circuit for the Spanish Grand Prix, with every session broadcast live on Sky Sports F1.
Fans can stream the coverage via NOW, with no long‑term contract required and the freedom to cancel at any time. The next ten races promise a blend of high‑speed power‑unit battles, technical corner‑heavy challenges, and the ever‑present possibility of surprise results that could reshape the title picture before the final checkered flag.