The dust has finally settled on the fact that St Helens missed the Super League play‑offs for the first time since their seventh‑place finish, ending a long run of post‑season appearances. Over the past two years, fans and pundits have been dissecting the causes, with some supporters claiming the analysis has stretched even longer. The coming twelve months will reveal whether the club’s decision‑makers finally recognise that their trajectory has begun to dip. The classic question posed by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1970s—"Can the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?"—offers a useful metaphor for sport.
Can a seemingly trivial change trigger a cascade of consequences in a complex system? If the Saints' recent slump is the tornado, what was the original wing‑flap that set it in motion? To answer that, we must rewind to 2019, the year St Helens captured their first Super League title in five years. Earlier, in mid‑2017, the club sat around the middle of the table and made a bold move, parting ways with head coach Keiron Cunningham and appointing Justin Holbrook.
After a heartbreaking semi‑final loss in 2017—thanks to a Luke Gale drop‑goal—and a disappointing 2018 season despite Ben Barba’s brilliance, 2019 arrived as a watershed. The Saints dominated the competition, losing only three games and cruising to the summit of the league. Their 23‑6 Grand Final victory over Salford Red Devils cemented their return to the top.
That squad was a blend of home‑grown talent and Australian imports in their prime: Jonny Lomax, Tommy Makinson, Alex Walmsley and Lachlan Coote were all in their mid‑to‑late twenties, playing at the peak of their abilities. The next challenge was a change of head coach. Kristian Woolf stepped in and, in his own words, the COVID‑induced shutdown may have saved his job. When the season was halted, Woolf used the pause to discuss expectations with his players, forging a partnership between a disciplined coach and a hungry group.
The result was a spectacular 2020 Grand Final try by Jack Welsby, followed by a Challenge Cup, a League Leaders’ Shield and another league title. The momentum seemed unstoppable until the 2023 World Club Challenge in Australia, where St Helens shocked many by defeating the Penrith Panthers. Paul Wellens, a club legend who moved from captain to assistant coach, took the top job after a decade on the coaching staff. A golden‑point drop‑goal from Lewis Dodd became an iconic moment, and the Saints appeared to have scaled the highest peak.
At that point the club faced a strategic crossroads: should they begin a transition, rely on the same core group, or adopt a hybrid approach? They chose option B—rewarding veteran players with upgraded contracts while remaining within the constraints of a salary‑capped league. Stars such as Makinson, Lomax, Walmsley, Mark Percival, Louis McCarthy‑Scarsbrook and Sione Mata'utia were now in their thirties, and their contracts reflected the success they had delivered. However, each raise ate into the £2.1 million cap, leaving less room for marquee signings or lucrative deals for emerging talent.
Under Wellens, the club made only eleven new signings over three seasons to replace departing stalwarts like Regan Grace, James Roby, Will Hopoate, Makinson, Dodd and Mata'utia. The arrivals—Tee Ritson, Wesley Bruines, Daryl Clark, Waqa Blake, Kyle Feldt, Tristan Sailor, Lewis Murphy, Moses Mbye, Matt Whitley, Shane Wright and Deon Cross—were largely forced by circumstance, with Wright and Cross becoming available after Salford’s financial collapse. Critics argue that many of these recruits have not matched the quality of those they replaced. Former CEO Mike Rush described the recruitment model as "Moneyball", borrowing the term from Michael Lewis’s book about the Oakland Athletics.
The idea is to identify undervalued players who excel in specific metrics—tackles, metres gained, defensive work rate—while staying within budget. Rush admitted that the approach involves risk: "We're always going to get stuff wrong because whether it's an overseas player or not, you take risks and you gamble." In practice, the Saints’ gamble has not paid off uniformly. Sky Sports analyst Jon Wilkin labelled the recruitment as "shocking" and "terrible", noting that short‑term, convenient signings failed to replace the departed talent on a like‑for‑like basis. Young players were thrust into roles they were not yet ready for, exposing a lack of depth and durability in the squad.
Compounding the issue, other clubs have become more financially competitive. While Wigan remains affluent, teams such as Wakefield, York and Leigh have increased their wage offers, eroding St Helens’ traditional advantage as a big‑spending club. As senior players aged, suffered injuries and saw their performance dip—Lomax and Percival combined for just fourteen games in 2026—the gap widened.
The exodus of key figures—Wellens, Roby and Rush—all left within a short period, stripping the club of institutional memory dating back to the 1990s. Injuries to captain Matty Lees and enforcer Morgan Knowles further weakened the on‑field leadership.
Under Wellens, the Saints finished third, sixth and fifth in successive seasons, securing semi‑final play‑off spots but failing to capture the glory they were accustomed to. Dissatisfied with those results, the board appointed Paul Rowley on a three‑year contract to rejuvenate the club. Rowley’s tenure lasted less than a season; he was dismissed ahead of the Round 20 clash with rivals Wigan Warriors in July. It remains speculative how the season might have unfolded under his guidance, especially given the injury crisis and the difficulty of imprinting his systems on a club with a distinct DNA.
What is clear is that the Saints ended the year in seventh place. In a bid to reverse fortunes, St Helens have turned to Australian head coach Kevin Walters. Legend James Graham revealed on his podcast that he sent Walters a compilation of the club’s greatest victories to illustrate why the mantra "Never write off the Saints" endures.
Walters, known for fostering strong team cultures and advocating for his players, has already hinted at major signings, suggesting a renewed willingness to spend. The overarching question remains: what was the initial "wing flap" that precipitated the 2026 tornado?
In hindsight, the answer appears to be a prolonged period of inertia—four years of standing still, avoiding disruptive changes, and relying on aging contracts. In sport, stagnation inevitably leads to decline. The decision to pursue option B—maintaining the status quo rather than proactively reshaping the roster—set the stage for the downturn. Looking ahead, the regular Super League season will conclude with Round 27 on Thursday, September 10, live on Sky Sports.
Whether the Saints can rediscover the momentum that once made them a dynasty will depend on how quickly they can adapt, invest wisely and re‑ignite the small but decisive wing‑flaps that drive lasting success.