Kimi Antonelli's remarkable win at the Italian Grand Prix felt like a turning point in this season's title fight. Starting from the back of the grid in 19th place, he surged to victory and dealt a psychological blow to his rivals.
After that performance Antonelli now sits 66 points ahead of George Russell, 76 points clear of Lewis Hamilton and 96 points ahead of Lando Norris, with ten races still to run. There is no doubt that the Italian driver is the current favourite to claim the championship. If he succeeds, he will become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history.
Yet the calendar still holds several circuits that could reshuffle the standings. Monza is famous for its long straights, which put a premium on raw engine power. Mercedes has traditionally been the benchmark in that department, even though the FIA declared earlier in the year that Red Bull's power unit was technically the best. What set Mercedes apart at Monza was the way they exploited the electrical component of their hybrid system – a factor that the FIA does not measure directly.
By extracting more energy from the ERS, they were able to produce higher top‑speed figures and dominate the high‑speed sections. Few upcoming venues demand the same level of pure power as Monza. Baku and the new Las Vegas street circuit will feature long full‑throttle zones, but both tracks also contain a larger number of corners, which reduces the overall emphasis on straight‑line speed.
The next race in Madrid, for example, is expected to be a twisty, technical layout that will reward cars with strong cornering performance – a characteristic that should suit McLaren and Ferrari more than a pure‑power machine. Following Madrid, the calendar moves to Azerbaijan, a race that often produces chaos due to its mixed‑character nature, then to more conventional venues such as Sepang in Malaysia, Austin in the United States and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico. Those circuits tend to bring the field closer together, especially if teams introduce upgrades that narrow the performance gap.
In the two races before Monza, McLaren demonstrated that it could fight for victory. Lando Norris delivered masterful drives to win in Hungary and the Netherlands, proving that the chassis was capable of beating the top teams when the conditions were right. Most teams have already harvested significant performance gains from recent component updates, but Mercedes has announced that it will not bring a new package until the Malaysian round next month.
"We must not get ahead of ourselves and assume we can wait for the Malaysia upgrade," Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff said. "We know Madrid will be a tough fight.
Our car simply does not have the Monza‑level performance for the next race. Upgrades will help, but until then we have to focus on extracting the maximum points we can, even if that means settling for solid finishes rather than wins." McLaren boss Andrea Stella echoed a similarly cautious outlook. He explained that the team’s realistic aim is to stay consistently in the hunt for podiums and occasional victories right up to the final race. "Tracks like Malaysia, Austin and Brazil play to our strengths – the long, flowing corners let the car show its potential," Stella noted.
"We have new parts that we will bring to Baku, but circuits such as Baku and Madrid demand very precise line‑taking and short‑radius corners, which are not our strongest suit. Still, we were competitive in Zandvoort and Hungary, and Monza proved that we can win when the circumstances line up." Stella added that drag will be less critical in Madrid because the circuit features a dense array of corners, so the team will concentrate on handling and traction. From a championship perspective, he stressed the importance of staying realistic and not getting carried away by the current classification. "One race at a time," he said, "that's the only way to keep the title hopes alive." Antonelli, only 20 years old and in his second full season, has already shown a level of speed that many more experienced drivers have not yet matched.
He has avoided the typical rookie mistakes that often cost points, but the remaining ten races will inevitably test his composure. Whether it is a tightly packed field, a sudden change in weather, or a technical failure, any of those variables could turn a strong performance into a costly error. "It has been a very strong year so far, but there are still many races left and anything can happen," Antonelli said after his Monza triumph. "We have seen how quickly the situation can change.
My approach is to take each race as it comes, focus on the things I can control and make the most of every opportunity. In Monza we were the fastest, but you never know what the next circuit will bring – maybe McLaren, Ferrari or even Red Bull with Max Verstappen will take the lead." If McLaren or Ferrari find a rhythm and produce a car that outperforms the competition for several rounds, Antonelli could see his rivals – Hamilton or Norris – close the points gap dramatically.
A double‑digit swing in a single Grand Prix could increase the pressure on the young Italian driver. Russell, who shares the same machinery as Antonelli, appears to be in a more precarious position because he has not been able to match his teammate's pace. Without a clear improvement in his performance, his championship hopes look dimmer.
Wolff summed up the overall situation succinctly: "Motor racing is a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen, and that’s why we have to do our best for both drivers and keep bringing our best game to every weekend." The season now heads to the new Madring circuit for the Spanish Grand Prix.
All sessions will be broadcast live on Sky Sports F1, with streaming available through NOW – no long‑term contract required and the option to cancel at any time. The upcoming races will determine whether Antonelli can maintain his lead or if the title battle will tighten once more, keeping fans on the edge of their seats until the very last lap.