Kimi Antonelli's astonishing win at the Italian Grand Prix felt like a watershed moment in this season's title fight, delivering a psychological hammer blow to his rivals by climbing from 19th on the grid to the top step of the podium. After that performance Antonelli now sits 66 points ahead of George Russell, 76 points clear of Lewis Hamilton and enjoys a 96‑point cushion over Lando Norris, with ten races still on the calendar. Undoubtedly the Italian driver is the current favourite to lift the championship trophy, and if he succeeds he will become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history.
Yet the campaign is far from settled, and several factors could still reshape the standings. Monza's ultra‑long straights place a premium on raw engine power, and historically Mercedes has set the benchmark in that department, even though the FIA declared earlier in the year that Red Bull possesses the most powerful unit overall. What really distinguished Mercedes at Monza was the way the team exploited the electrical component of their power unit – a facet not directly measured by the FIA – allowing them to extract extra thrust on the high‑speed sections.
Few circuits demand as much pure power as Monza. While Baku later this month and the Las Vegas street race in November also feature lengthy full‑throttle zones, both venues contain considerably more corners than the Italian track, meaning outright engine output will not be the sole deciding factor. "I'm quite happy, first of all, that we were able to perform in Monza like we did, because we weren't sure. Ferrari brought an engine upgrade and others on the chassis side, and this is a development race," said Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff.
"But we have to consider the fact that Monza is an outlier on the track. It's on one end, and then there is Monaco on the other." The upcoming race in Madrid is a brand‑new event, and its layout appears highly twisty. Cars that excel in cornering – a strength traditionally associated with McLaren and Ferrari – should find themselves well‑placed to challenge for top positions.
After Madrid the calendar heads to Azerbaijan, a venue known for its chaotic, changeable races, followed by the more conventional circuits of Sepang in Malaysia, Austin in the United States and the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico. Those tracks should compress the field, especially as teams continue to introduce upgrades.
In the two rounds before Monza McLaren demonstrated that they possessed a race‑winning package, with Lando Norris delivering superb drives to claim victories in Hungary and the Netherlands. Most teams have already harvested significant performance gains from newly fitted components, whereas Mercedes has announced that its next major upgrade will not arrive until the Malaysian Grand Prix at the start of next month. "We must not get ahead of ourselves now, thinking, 'well, we can wait for the upgrade until Malaysia'. We know that it's going to be a big fight in Madrid.
Our car hasn't got the performance levels that it has in Monza for the next race in Madrid," Wolff warned. "We know that our upgrades would help a lot in Madrid but we haven't got them. So we just need to do our best and that could mean that some of the race weekends, not winning, but just scoring points." McLaren boss Andrea Stella echoed a realistic outlook, stating that the team's aim is to be consistently in contention for victories right up to the final race.
"I think our tracks will be more the likes of Malaysia, Austin, Brazil. I think where we have some long corners, the car seems to express its potential well," he explained.
"We have some new upgrades that we will take to Baku, but we still think that tracks like Baku and Madrid where you have to be very precise with the trajectory, short corners, maybe they don't play to the best of our car. Yet we have to say that in Zandvoort and Hungary we were in a position to win races and in Monza while we were not, we know that it's a special race. "The drag will be less important in Madrid, there's a much higher density of corners, so we will definitely give it a go, but from a championship point of view I think we have to remain very realistic, don't get conditioned by looking at the classification, just focus on one race at a time." Antonelli, meanwhile, remains a generational talent whose sheer speed has been the decisive factor this year.
At just 20 years old and only in his second season, many drivers would still be prone to costly errors, yet Antonelli has shown remarkable composure. He will inevitably be tested in the remaining events, whether by a tightly packed field, a sudden rain shower or the pressure of defending his lead.
"Definitely it's been a very strong year so far, but still many races left and so, still anything can happen," Antonelli said. "And we've seen how things can swing very quickly.
So, on my side, as I said many times, just take it race by race, focus on things that I can control and just maximise every opportunity I get. "In Monza we were fastest, but we never know.
We might go to another track and all of a sudden, McLaren is the fastest, or Ferrari is up there, or even Red Bull, with Max." If McLaren or Ferrari were to find a sustained performance edge over the next ten rounds and Antonelli were to miss the podium, rivals such as Hamilton or Norris could reap double‑digit points hauls, intensifying the pressure on the young Italian. The outlook for Russell appears even more challenging; he shares the same machinery as Antonelli but lacks the raw pace to match his teammate, and it is unclear how that gap could be closed.
Wolff summed up the state of the championship succinctly: "It's motor racing. It's a technical sport. Things can break, accidents can happen and that's why we have to do our best job for both drivers.
Continue to bring our best game." With the Spanish Grand Prix at the brand‑new Madring circuit on the horizon, every session will be broadcast live on Sky Sports F1, and fans can stream the coverage via NOW with no long‑term contract required.