Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known in the betting circles as "Jones Knows"—offers his detailed analysis and wagering ideas for this weekend's Premier League fixtures. One of the most intriguing match‑ups this round features two managers who favour a quick, vertical style of play. Under Matthias Jaissle, Anthony Elanga has transformed into a markedly different striker.
His confidence is soaring, and when he hits his stride he becomes a lethal weapon for any side that relies on direct balls, as his recent goals against Liverpool and Tottenham have shown. While he may not be the most consistent finisher, he is capable of producing scoring bursts, making the 100/30 price offered by Sky Bet for another goal a tempting proposition. Turning to Brentford, the club has arguably been the surprise package of the Premier League after just two games. Their performances—a convincing win over Tottenham and a hard‑fought draw at Leeds—suggest a significant improvement in their overall process compared with last season.
The first hour against Leeds was particularly telling: Brentford dominated possession, created 15 shots, and recorded 31 touches inside the opposition box, the highest any visiting side has managed at Elland Road in the opening 60 minutes since the start of the previous campaign. In contrast, Sunderland’s away form remains difficult to justify.
Their expected‑goals differential per 90 minutes sits at –0.8 since last season, a figure that even relegated sides West Ham and Wolves have outperformed. This statistical weakness makes it hard to build a compelling case for backing them on the road.
For those looking to stream Sky Sports more flexibly, the NOW platform offers a personal video feed via the Sky Sports app, ensuring you never miss the action. Back to Brentford: the Bees have found the net six times before halftime across their three matches in all competitions this season, leading at the break in each encounter. This pattern supports a 6/4 Sky Bet price for Brentford to be ahead at both half‑time and full‑time, a bet that aligns well with their current momentum. Brighton may be missing several key players—Yankuba Minteh, Jack Hinshelwood, Kaoru Mitoma, Georginio Rutter and Mats Wieffer—making their squad look thin in the betting markets ahead of their upcoming game.
The absence of these talents could explain why odds on Brighton have softened. Leeds, under Daniel Farke, switched to a back‑three formation in December and have since become comfortable defending away from home, often adopting a very cautious approach in the first half.
Their recent away fixtures have been low‑scoring affairs, with five of the last six matches ending 0‑0 at halftime. A 7/4 price for another goalless first half appears to be a solid value bet.
Overall, this encounter is rife with volatility from a prediction standpoint, as both managers are eager to kick‑start their campaigns and secure early points. Crystal Palace have lost the defensive solidity that defined their success under Oliver Glasner, while their attacking improvements have yet to become consistent. Meanwhile, Fulham supporters are already expressing frustration with Alvaro Arbeola after a timid display at Sunderland, suggesting a low‑scoring draw could be the most likely outcome. Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, continue to operate like a well‑oiled machine in these types of fixtures.
Victories over newly promoted sides are usually achieved with minimal drama, meaning bettors seeking a City win for their accumulator can do so with relative confidence. Rayan Cherki, priced at 5/6 with Sky Bet for another assist, is a popular pick.
The French playmaker is averaging 0.45 assists per 90 minutes since the start of last season—a rate hotter than Bruno Fernandes. In a match where City are expected to net three goals, backing Cherki for an assist offers a smarter, higher‑value angle on a pro‑City wager.
It must be agonising for Tottenham fans. Despite a sizable summer spend, the team continues to underperform. They were more competitive in the recent loss to Newcastle but still appeared vulnerable defensively, and a lingering sense remains that the squad is weighed down by past disappointments. Tottenham have attempted a massive tactical and personnel overhaul, whereas Nottingham Forest enjoy greater continuity and have begun to implement Glasner’s style.
Forest looked more like a Glasner‑inspired side at Anfield—well‑organised without the ball and dangerous when pressing high, often resembling a front five with advancing full‑backs. Morgan Gibbs‑White is expected to flourish under the new manager, having already opened his account at Anfield. He has recorded at least one shot on target in each of his last four starts against Tottenham and averages 1.05 shots on target per game since the start of last season.
Combining his shooting threat with Forest’s propensity to avoid defeat makes a 10/11 Sky Bet price an attractive wager. Hull City have won their first two league games and remain unbeaten at the back, yet they have lost the expected‑goals battle in both matches. From a data‑driven perspective, there is a strong chance the Tigers will encounter a wall in their form soon, and that wall could appear in their upcoming clash with Aston Villa. Unai Emery is expected to reignite Aston Villa’s attacking sharpness quickly.
September is historically his favourite month; his Premier League record in September features just one defeat in 18 matches, with 11 wins. Moreover, Emery has never lost a league game with Villa against a promoted side—winning 15 of 21 such encounters. In their last nine away games versus newly promoted opponents, Villa have scored 23 goals. The 17/20 odds for an away win offered by Sky Bet represent one of the weekend’s best value bets.
Everton endured a disastrous deadline‑day, yet their starting eleven may actually be stronger than the market assumes. Hosting Manchester United could provide the perfect platform for a pragmatic, siege‑mental approach typical of David Moyes, with fans likely to back a disciplined, result‑oriented performance. It’s the club hierarchy that has been under fire, not the players or Moyes himself.
Ipswich held United to a respectable level until a controversial goal by Harry Maguire shifted momentum, allowing Michael Carrick’s side to exploit space. Everton present a very different challenge; they will make life difficult for United.
Is the market giving Arsenal enough credit? A home win at 4/6 with Sky Bet should attract many punters. Arsenal are likely to deliver a classic performance—controlling transitions, defending with meticulous organisation, and capitalising on key moments. They should be confident in neutralising Chelsea’s front three, who have shown flashes of brilliance but are not yet a fully formed threat.
Arsenal have kept only one clean sheet in their last 18 league games, yet within that same stretch they have recorded ten clean sheets overall. Their defensive record at home is even more impressive: 11 clean sheets in the last 14 home matches, conceding just three goals across the previous 13 home fixtures in all competitions.
There’s no need to over‑complicate matters. Betting on an Arsenal win combined with under 3.5 goals has hit the mark in ten of the last fourteen games at the Emirates, making it an even‑money proposition this weekend. Finally, don’t forget the Super 6 promotion—enter for free for a chance to win £1 million!