Our chief tipster, Lewis Jones—better known in the betting world as "Jones Knows"—offers his expert breakdown and wagering perspectives on the upcoming Premier League fixtures. Liverpool are on the brink of setting an unprecedented record: they could be the first side ever to field three players each worth over £100 million simultaneously.
That staggering figure is part of the narrative behind Sky Bet’s odds, which currently list Liverpool at 1/2 to end a six‑match winless streak that has spanned two seasons. The Reds boast a squad brimming with quality, yet there are signs they are struggling to adapt to Andoni Iraola’s tactical blueprint.
Last weekend, Nottingham Forest generated 2.3 expected goals at Anfield, the third‑highest total recorded in any of the past 77 Premier League home games. Such a performance makes Forest uncomfortable favourites for the Friday night encounter. From a betting standpoint, all eyes should be on Leif Davis, priced at 4/1 by Sky Bet to either find the net or set one up. Davis operates almost as a left‑winger in Iraola’s system, having already scored against Manchester United and added two goals during the pre‑season.
His creative output is equally impressive: with a left foot that seems to have a magic wand, he delivered 21 assists across the last two Championship campaigns. For those looking to stream the match, a Chrome browser offers the most reliable video player experience. The clash promises to be a thrilling affair between two managers who favour quick, vertical football. Anthony Elanga, under Matthias Jaissle, appears transformed; his confidence is soaring and when he hits his stride, he becomes a potent weapon for a side that thrives on direct passes, as demonstrated by his goals against Liverpool and Tottenham.
While Elanga can be inconsistent in front of goal, his recent scoring bursts suggest that Sky Bet’s 100/30 odds for another strike are worth considering. If you prefer a flexible way to watch Sky Sports, the NOW platform provides a personal video feed via the Sky Sports app.
Brentford have arguably emerged as the most impressive Premier League outfit after just two matches. Their dominant win over Tottenham followed by a draw at Leeds indicates a marked improvement in their overall process compared with last season.
In the first hour against Leeds, Brentford were outstanding, creating 15 shots and registering 31 touches inside the opposition’s box—both records for any visiting side at Elland Road since the start of last season. Sunderland, on the other hand, struggle to make a compelling case, especially away from home where their expected‑goals differential sits at –0.8 per 90 minutes—a figure worse than that of relegated West Ham and Wolves. To enhance the value of a Brentford win, note that they have scored six first‑half goals across three games in all competitions this season and have led at the break in each of those matches.
Backing Brentford to be ahead at half‑time and to secure the full‑time result at 6/4 with Sky Bet appears a solid proposition. Brighton may be missing several key players—Yankuba Minteh, Jack Hinshelwood, Kaoru Mitoma, Georginio Rutter, and Mats Wieffer—contributing to their frailty in the betting markets ahead of their next fixture. Since Daniel Farke switched Leeds to a back‑three in December, the team has become comfortable defending on the road and adopts a cautious approach in the first half. This strategy has yielded five 0‑0 half‑time scores in their last six away matches, making Sky Bet’s 7/4 odds for another goalless half‑time a viable runner.
The upcoming encounter is volatile from a prediction perspective, as both managers aim to steer their campaigns back on course. Crystal Palace have lost the defensive solidity that made them a force under Oliver Glasner, while their attacking upgrades have yet to materialise consistently. Meanwhile, Fulham supporters are already expressing frustration with Alvaro Arbeola after a lacklustre display at Sunderland, suggesting a low‑scoring draw is likely. Manchester City continue to operate like a well‑oiled machine under Pep Guardiola, especially against newly‑promoted sides where victories are often secured with minimal drama.
This reliability means that bettors can add a City win to their accumulators without excessive worry. Rayan Cherki, priced at 5/6 by Sky Bet for another assist, is poised to be popular. The French playmaker averages 0.45 assists per 90 minutes since the start of last season—a rate that surpasses even Bruno Fernandes.
In a match where City are expected to net three goals, backing Cherki for an assist offers a smarter angle on a pro‑City wager. Tottenham fans must be feeling the strain.
Despite a more competitive showing in the recent loss to Newcastle, the Spurs were still easy to break down, and the lingering weight of past disappointments seems to be affecting the squad. The North London side have embarked on a massive tactical and personnel overhaul, whereas Nottingham Forest enjoy greater continuity and have begun to echo Glasner’s style. At Anfield, Forest resembled a Glasner‑inspired unit: organised without the ball, yet dangerous when pressing high, almost functioning as a five‑man attack with full‑backs pushing forward.
Morgan Gibbs‑White’s contributions are expected to increase under his new manager, and he already opened his account at Anfield. He has recorded at least one shot on target in each of his last four starts against Tottenham and averages 1.05 shots on target per game since the start of last season.
Combining his shot‑on‑target probability with Forest’s tendency to avoid defeat yields an attractive 10/11 wager with Sky Bet. Hull City have won their first two fixtures and remain unbeaten at the back, yet they have lost the expected‑goals battle in both games—an indicator that underlying performance metrics may not be as solid as the results suggest.
From an analytical standpoint, there is a strong chance that Hull’s early momentum will stall soon, and the upcoming match could expose that vulnerability. Unai Emery is expected to rejuvenate Aston Villa swiftly.
September is traditionally his strongest month; his Premier League record in September includes just one loss in 18 matches, with 11 victories. Moreover, Emery has never been beaten by a promoted side while managing Villa, boasting 15 wins out of 21 such encounters, and in the last nine away games against newly‑promoted teams, Villa have scored 23 goals.
Sky Bet’s 17/20 odds for an away win represent one of the weekend’s top value bets. Everton endured a disastrous deadline‑day, yet their starting eleven may be stronger than the market gives them credit for, despite a generally weaker squad. Hosting Manchester United could provide the catalyst they need, as a classic "siege mentality" approach under David Moyes often galvanises the fans and yields pragmatic results. It’s worth noting that the club’s hierarchy, not the players or Moyes, has been the primary source of recent turmoil.
Ipswich held their own against United until a contentious Harry Maguire goal shifted momentum, allowing Michael Carrick’s side to exploit the space. Everton present a very different challenge for Ipswich, making the fixture a tough test for the hosts. Are bookmakers undervaluing Arsenal in this matchup?
A home win at 4/6 with Sky Bet should attract many punters. Arsenal typically dominate transitions, defend with meticulous organisation, and seize opportunities when they arise. They appear confident in neutralising Chelsea’s front three, who, while showing flashes of brilliance, are not yet a fully fledged threat. Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League outings, but within that span they have recorded ten clean sheets overall—a respectable defensive record.
Their home defence has been particularly stout, with eleven clean sheets in the last fourteen games at the Emirates and only three goals conceded in the previous thirteen home matches across all competitions. The betting market need not be over‑complicated: backing Arsenal to win while the total goals remain under 3.5 has hit the mark in ten of the last fourteen matches at the Emirates, making it an even‑money proposition this time around.
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