Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones – known in the betting world as "Jones Knows" – offers his detailed breakdown and wagering perspective on the upcoming Premier League fixtures. Liverpool are on the verge of making history: they could become the first side ever to field three players each valued at over £100 million simultaneously. While that staggering figure underscores the depth of talent at Anfield, it also adds pressure, especially as the Reds sit just half a point behind the odds offered by Sky Bet to snap a six‑match winless streak that has stretched across two seasons. The squad is undeniably brimming with quality, yet there are signs that the team is still struggling to fully embody the tactical blueprint of manager Andoni Iraola.
A recent example of this mismatch was on display against Nottingham Forest, who generated an expected‑goals (xG) tally of 2.3 at Anfield last weekend – the third‑highest xG total recorded by any visiting side in the past 77 Premier League home games. That performance has turned Forest into uneasy favourites for their upcoming clash on Friday night. From a betting standpoint, one player deserves particular attention: Leif Davis.
Sky Bet currently offers 4/1 odds for him to either score or provide an assist. Davis operates almost as a left‑winger in Iraola’s system, frequently cutting inside and threatening the opposition goal. He already opened his Premier League account with a goal against Manchester United and added two more during the pre‑season. Moreover, his creative credentials are impressive – he has amassed 21 assists across his last two Championship campaigns, a testament to his left‑foot precision and vision.
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Anthony Elanga, under the guidance of Matthias Jaissle, has transformed into a markedly different player. His confidence is soaring, and when he hits his stride he becomes a lethal weapon for a side that thrives on direct passes – evidence of his impact can be seen in his goals against both Liverpool and Tottenham. Though he may not be the most consistent finisher, his capacity for scoring bursts makes the 100/30 odds offered by Sky Bet on another Elanga goal an attractive proposition.
If you’re looking to watch the game on Sky Sports, the NOW platform provides flexible streaming options, and the Sky Sports app lets you secure a personal video feed on the go. Turning to Brentford, they have arguably been the most impressive Premier League outfit after just two matches. Their dominant win over Tottenham and a hard‑fought draw at Leeds suggest a marked improvement in their overall process compared with last season.
The first half against Leeds was especially telling – Brentford recorded the highest number of shots (15) and the most touches inside the opposition penalty area (31) by any away side at Elland Road in the opening 60 minutes since the start of the previous campaign. By contrast, Sunderland’s away form is difficult to champion. Since the start of last season they have posted an expected‑goals differential of –0.8 per 90 minutes when playing away, a figure worse than that of relegated teams West Ham and Wolves.
This statistical weakness further underscores Brentford’s value. They have found the net six times before the break across their three games in all competitions this season, leading at halftime in each instance. Backing Brentford to be ahead at both half‑time and full‑time at 6/4 with Sky Bet appears a solid wager.
Brighton faces a potential selection headache: Yankuba Minteh, Jack Hinshelwood, Kaoru Mitoma, Georginio Rutter and Mats Wieffer are all listed as possible absentees. Their absence has weakened Brighton’s odds in the betting market ahead of the match. Leeds, under Daniel Farke, switched to a back‑three formation in December and have since grown comfortable defending on the road, often adopting a cautious approach in the opening half. This has resulted in five of their last six away fixtures being scoreless at the break.
Consequently, Sky Bet’s 7/4 odds for another 0‑0 halftime scoreline present a tempting bet. Overall, the fixture is volatile from a prediction perspective, as both managers are eager to steer their campaigns in the right direction. Crystal Palace have lost the defensive solidity that defined their successful period under Oliver Glasner, while their attacking upgrades have yet to become consistent.
Meanwhile, Fulham supporters are growing impatient with Alvaro Arbeola after a lackluster display at Sunderland. A low‑scoring draw seems the most probable outcome. Manchester City continue to operate like a well‑oiled machine under Pep Guardiola, especially against newly promoted sides where victories are often achieved with minimal drama.
This reliability makes City a safe inclusion in weekend accumulator bets. Rayan Cherki, priced at 5/6 with Sky Bet to register another assist, is likely to be a popular selection. Since the start of last season, the French playmaker has averaged 0.45 assists per 90 minutes – a rate that outstrips even Bruno Fernandes. In a match where City are expected to net three goals, backing Cherki for an assist is a shrewd way to add a pro‑City edge to your ticket.
Tottenham fans are understandably frustrated. Despite a more competitive showing in the recent loss to Newcastle, the Spurs were still easy to break down, and lingering doubts about the squad’s confidence remain.
The club has undertaken a massive tactical and personnel overhaul, while Nottingham Forest retain more continuity and appear to be embracing Glasner’s style. At Anfield they resembled a Glasner‑inspired side: organized without the ball yet dangerous when pressing high, effectively operating as a five‑man attack with full‑backs pushing forward. Morgan Gibbs‑White’s influence is expected to grow under the new Forest manager, and he opened his account at Anfield with a shot on target. He has recorded at least one shot on target in each of his last four starts against Tottenham and averages 1.05 shots on target per game since the start of last season.
Combining his shot‑on‑target likelihood with Forest’s ability to avoid defeat makes a 10/11 Sky Bet wager a compelling option. Hull City have won their first two matches and remain unbeaten in terms of goals conceded.
However, they have lost the expected‑goals battle in both games, suggesting that their defensive record may be more fragile than it appears. From a data‑driven perspective, there is a strong chance the Tigers will encounter a form slump soon – perhaps as early as their next fixture. Unai Emery’s tenure at Aston Villa appears to be gathering momentum. September is historically his strongest month in the Premier League: out of 18 matches he has suffered only one defeat, securing 11 wins.
He has never lost a league game against a promoted side, winning 15 of the 21 such encounters, and in the last nine away games versus newly promoted teams his side has scored 23 goals. The 17/20 odds for an away win offered by Sky Bet represent one of the weekend’s most attractive bets.
Everton’s deadline‑day activity was largely forgettable, yet their starting eleven may be undervalued by the market. Facing Manchester United at home could provide the catalyst they need. A classic "siege mentality" approach, reminiscent of David Moyes’ pragmatic style, could see the fans rally behind a result‑oriented performance. It’s worth noting that the dissatisfaction appears to be directed at the club hierarchy rather than the players or the manager.
Ipswich held their own against United until a contentious Harry Maguire goal shifted momentum, allowing Michael Carrick’s side to exploit the space and dominate. Everton, however, present a very different challenge and are likely to make the contest far tougher for Ipswich. Turning to Arsenal, the market may be under‑estimating their chances.
Sky Bet’s 4/6 odds for a home win should attract many punters. Arsenal are expected to impose their usual style: controlling transitions, defending with meticulous organization, and capitalizing on key moments. Their defensive record against Chelsea’s front three has been solid, though it is premature to label Chelsea as a serious threat at this stage. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in only one of their last 18 Premier League matches, but within that same span they have recorded ten clean sheets overall.
Their defensive resilience is further highlighted by 11 clean sheets in the last 14 home games, conceding just three goals in the previous 13 home fixtures across all competitions. There is no need to overcomplicate the prediction: backing Arsenal to win while the total goals remain under 3.5 has been a successful strategy in ten of the last fourteen games at the Emirates, making it an even‑money proposition this weekend.
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