The US Open has long earned a reputation as the most unpredictable of the four Grand Slam tournaments. By the time the New York event arrives, the tennis calendar is already eight months deep, and many competitors are carrying the physical toll of a grueling season.
Aches, lingering injuries, and general fatigue are common, making it difficult to forecast who will ultimately lift the trophy. Unlike the clay of Roland Garros or the fast grass at Wimbledon, the hard courts at Flushing Meadows are a surface that most players consider their natural playground.
While some athletes love or loathe the slower, sliding game of clay, and others thrive on the low bounce of grass, the hard court is often described as the "bread and butter" of modern tennis. This universality means that a larger pool of contenders feel they have a realistic shot at success, adding another layer of complexity to any pre‑tournament analysis. The US Open now stretches across three weeks, with the opening week traditionally dubbed "fan week." This year’s fan week was packed with high‑profile moments: five‑time champion Roger Federer made a nostalgic appearance in an exhibition match, while Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik captured their first Grand Slam titles by winning the mixed‑doubles crown.
The event also welcomed back Serena Williams, a six‑time US Open champion, for a brief but celebrated return to the stadium. The qualifying draw was notable for featuring fifteen British players, underscoring the depth of talent emerging from the United Kingdom. The main draw, which kicks off on Sunday, includes nine British competitors, five of whom earned their spots through qualifying—a record for the tournament. On the men’s side, the top seed is Sascha Zverev, who steps into the role vacated by the injured Jannik Sinner.
Zverev, a French Open champion earlier in the year, arrives with an impressive 18‑2 record in Grand Slam matches for the season. He will be looking to translate that form into his first Grand Slam title at a major, despite having stumbled early in both Masters 1000 events leading up to New York. In the women’s draw, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka heads the field.
Sabalenka is not only aiming to defend her title but also hopes to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open crowns. At the same time, she must protect her No. 1 ranking, a task made more challenging by a recent dip in form—she has gone 17‑7 since April and has not claimed a tournament victory since March.
Looking at the men’s bracket, the top half is anchored by Zverev. His path appears favorable on paper: he could avoid the likes of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz until later rounds, but he will still have to navigate a field that includes former finalist Taylor Fritz, French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli, and last year’s semi‑finalist Félix Auger‑Aliassime.
The second quarter of the draw is led by Australia’s sixth seed Alex de Minaur, who is projected to meet Zverev in the quarter‑finals. De Minaur’s section also contains former champion Andy Murray’s younger rival, as well as rising stars such as Arthur Fils and Alexander Bublik. The bottom half of the men’s draw is arguably the most stacked, featuring all five former US Open champions still active on tour: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka, and Marin Čilić.
Djokovic’s quarter includes Medvedev, American Francis Tiafoe (Cincinnati finalist), Canadian Brandon Nakashima (Canada Masters finalist), and a possible second‑round clash with either Wawrinka or Matteo Berrettini. The final quarter is dominated by defending champion Alcaraz, whose opponents include Canadian champion Ben Shelton, French prodigy Arthur Fils, the powerful Alexander Bublik, and the hard‑hitting Roman Safiullin, who has previously upset Alcaraz and could present a serious test given the Spaniard’s limited match play since April. On the women’s side, Sabalenka’s first‑round section looks manageable, but the quarter‑finals could pit her against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, a match that would test her resilience. Sabalenka’s recent lack of titles and a modest win‑loss record raise questions about her ability to dominate the field.
The second quarter of the women’s draw is led by Jessica Pegula, who is in contention to finish the tournament as world No. 1. For Pegula, the only route to the top ranking is to capture the title outright; any earlier exit will keep her behind Sabalenka. Pegula’s road is littered with dangerous opponents, including former world No.
10 Elina Svitolina, former US Open champion Karolina Muchova, and the experienced Sorana Cîrstea. A second‑round showdown with either former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin or two‑time US Open winner Venus Williams could prove decisive. Coco Gauff, the reigning Cincinnati champion and former US Open champion, leads the top of the bottom half. Gauff also harbors aspirations of reaching the world No.
1 ranking, but she must win the tournament to do so. Awaiting her in the third quarter are last year’s finalist Amanda Anisimova, French Open champion Mirra Andreeva, Washington champion Alex Eala, and a potentially tricky early encounter with Paula Badosa. The toughest quarter, according to many analysts, belongs to Elena Rybakina’s section, which also houses Iga Świątek, Naomi Osaka, Madison Keys, and Belinda Bencic. Rybakina stands on the brink of becoming world No.
1 if she can advance to the semi‑finals, but a lingering ankle/Achilles issue—exacerbated by a recent withdrawal in Cincinnati—casts doubt on her ability to sustain a deep run. British hopes are represented by several players. Arthur Fery, fresh from a runner‑up finish at Winston‑Salem and now the British No.
1, makes his US Open debut against 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti, who is returning from a back injury but has shown good form in Cincinnati. Fery shares the top quarter with Zverev and fellow Brit Jan Choinski, who faces Dutchman Botic Van De Zandschulp.
In the bottom half, Cameron Norrie, seeded 29th, will meet French youngster Luca van Assche before a potential clash with Miomir Kecmanović or Dennis Shapovalov. Overall, nine British players have secured spots in the main draw, five of them via qualifying—a historic first for the nation at Flushing Meadows.
Among the qualifiers are Toby Samuel (world No. 110), who draws Czech Tomas Macháč (world No.
58); Harry Wendleken, who endured nine grueling sets to earn a place and now faces 21st seed Luciano Darderi; and Jacob Fearnley, a lucky loser returning for his second US Open, set to meet Spaniard Martin Landaluce. In the women’s draw, Katie Boulter is the sole direct entrant from Britain and opens against American wildcard Carol Young Suh Lee, a 24‑year‑old ranked 140th who is making her Grand Slam main‑draw debut. A victory for Boulter would likely set up a second‑round match against mixed‑doubles champion Karolina Muchova.
Harriet Dart, another British qualifier, earned her spot by defeating Heather Watson and will face world No. 54 Peyton Stearns, a player she has a recent history with from Cincinnati and US Open qualifying in 2021. Fran Jones, also qualifying for a second consecutive year, will meet Poland’s Magda Linette in her first head‑to‑head encounter.
Serena Williams, though not competing in singles, will still be present at the tournament. After partnering with Carlos Alcaraz in mixed doubles, she will join her sister Venus in the women’s doubles draw, having received a wildcard.
The Williams sisters last teamed up at a Grand Slam in 2022, making this reunion a nostalgic highlight for fans. Prize money has risen once again this year. Both the men’s and women’s singles champions will pocket $5.5 million (£4.7 million), while even a first‑round loser is guaranteed $140,000 (£120,000), underscoring the financial stakes of the event. Predicting a winner remains a daunting task, but personal analysis leans toward Sascha Zverev claiming his second Grand Slam title, given his favorable draw and recent form.
On the women’s side, the forecast favors Naomi Osaka, who could secure her third US Open crown and her first at Flushing Meadows since 2020, while also positioning herself for a potential return to the top of the rankings. Starting Sunday at 3 p.m.
ET, Sky Sports will broadcast 15 consecutive days of comprehensive coverage, offering live action from every court. Commentary will feature tennis legends such as Martina Navratilova, Tim Henman, Marion Bartoli, Laura Robson, Ryan Harrison, and Naomi Broady, among others.
Viewers can stream the tournament contract‑free via NOW or the Sky Sports app, and the Laver Cup will also be shown live from the O2 in London between 25‑27 September.