Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known on the betting circuit as Jones Knows—delivered a spectacular performance last weekend, and the big question now is whether he can replicate that success. The upcoming fixtures present a mixture of attacking promise and defensive frailties, and the markets are reacting accordingly. At Anfield, the expectation is for Liverpool to play expansive, forward‑driven football, especially with the arrival of their new manager, Andoni Iraola, whose reputation for encouraging attacking play precedes him.
However, the goals market appears to be demanding more from Nottingham Forest than they have demonstrated under Oliver Glasner. Forest have failed to find the net in both of their recent matches against Leeds, managing a meagre 1.4 expected goals over 180 minutes of play. This lack of cutting‑edge finishing is worrying for anyone who expects them to contribute to a high‑scoring encounter. Glasner has repeatedly cited the upheaval he inherited at Forest, the departure of key personnel and the limited time he has had to embed his tactical ideas.
Rebuilding a side under such circumstances is rarely an overnight process. Adding a historical perspective, Glasner‑led teams have traditionally struggled against Iraola‑coached sides, failing to score in four of the five meetings to date. This pattern reinforces the case for backing the under‑2.5‑goals market at 5/4 with Sky Bet, a value play given the defensive trends. Turning to individual players, Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall earned a mention after his goal against Crystal Palace in last week’s column, and I am still confident in his potential.
I am backing him again at 4/1 with Sky Bet. In the Palace match, Dewsbury‑Hall operated in an advanced No 10 role, acting more like a forward than a traditional midfielder.
He finished with a superb left‑footed strike after entering the box, recorded three shots (one on target), and logged four touches inside the opposition penalty area. A week later, against Preston in the Championship, he produced seven shots, confirming that his license to attack is now firmly established. Playing alongside Thierno Barry, Dewsbury‑Hall finds pockets between midfield and defence, positioning himself to finish moves himself rather than merely making late runs.
Bournemouth’s upcoming fixture should provide further opportunities for him to exploit these spaces. There is an intriguing betting angle when two newly‑promoted clubs meet early in the season.
In the last 36 such fixtures, the total goal line has exceeded 1.5 on 35 occasions, indicating a strong likelihood of at least a couple of goals. Moreover, the last five promoted teams to play their first home game of the campaign have all secured victories, suggesting a positive outlook for Coventry.
Nevertheless, Frank Lampard’s side must address defensive lapses exposed by Arsenal’s 3‑0 opening‑week win and a two‑goal concession to Plymouth in the Carabao Cup. Hull City, on the other hand, have begun their campaign in spectacular fashion, stunning Manchester United 2‑0 last weekend. Their display showcased aggression, disciplined organization, and a set‑piece threat that could trouble many opponents throughout the season.
A betting system analysis reveals that a one‑unit stake on Hull whenever they have started a game at odds greater than 2/1 since the start of last season would have yielded a £34.96 profit, including away wins at Millwall (twice), Middlesbrough and the headline‑grabbing victory over United. Given Hull’s form and the uncertainties surrounding the visitors, the safest approach is to remove the result from the equation and back both teams to score plus over 2.5 goals at evens with Sky Bet.
When evaluating poor performances, the key is deciding whether they signal a warning sign or a pricing opportunity. I lean toward the latter when it comes to Tottenham Hotspur.
Their 3‑0 loss at Brentford was a disaster: the team looked disjointed, physically outmatched, and defensively vulnerable. Roberto De Zerbi himself admitted after the match that his side was "not a team" yet. Despite the drubbing, De Zerbi boasts an impressive record in the immediate aftermath of heavy defeats, winning eight of his next eleven matches after losing by three or more goals, with his teams averaging 2.1 goals in those games. This statistical edge makes Tottenham an attractive bet at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
The Brentford loss was mitigated by several factors: five debutants started, key players Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro were unavailable, and many squad members returned late from the World Cup or experienced disrupted pre‑seasons. While these issues do not excuse the performance, they suggest that the underlying problems are fixable and that a reaction win is plausible. Chelsea may now possess the Premier League’s most potent attack.
Their recent 3‑1 victory at Fulham highlighted an aggressive, vertical, and at times chaotic style. Xabi Alonso’s front three—Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and João Pedro—combined for all three goals, a trio he described as central to his vision for the club.
However, the match also exposed defensive frailties, with goalkeeper Robert Sánchez committing a costly error that led to two goals conceded. The lack of authority from the back‑line remains a concern, but if the team can maintain its attacking rhythm, high‑scoring games should become the norm. Backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 4/5 with Sky Bet appears to be a solid long‑term strategy. Brentford’s opening‑week performance was remarkable: 26 shots and an expected‑goals tally of 3.87, the highest of the weekend.
Yet their away form under Keith Andrews has been modest, averaging just 1.15 goals per game. Their previous encounter with Hull ended 0‑0, a dull affair with a combined xG of only 0.98.
This suggests a potential low‑scoring draw this time around, making the under‑2.5‑goals market at 100/30 with Sky Bet an appealing option. Meanwhile, Fulham’s teenage striker Josh King made a strong impression against Chelsea, scoring the opening goal and registering three shots, two on target, while constantly threatening the opposition defense. Although the market still treats him as an emerging talent, his performance indicates he could become a primary attacking outlet for the Cottagers.
Betting on King to score at 9/2 with Sky Bet offers value in what promises to be a tightly contested match. Set‑piece opportunities are also worth exploiting. Manchester United managed to win only 42 % of their duels in the 2‑0 defeat to Hull, the lowest figure among Premier League sides on the opening weekend. Since Michael Carrick took over, United have conceded 20 league goals in 18 matches, half of which have come from dead‑ball situations—a rate only surpassed by Bournemouth and Leeds.
Hull demonstrated how to capitalize on this weakness, scoring both goals from set‑pieces at Old Trafford. Ipswich Town’s defender Dara O’Shea is a prime target for set‑piece betting.
Over the past twelve months he has averaged 0.95 shots per 90 minutes, a high output for a defender, indicating that Ipswich frequently look to him in dead‑ball scenarios. He is priced at evens for at least one shot and 18/1 to score with Sky Bet. Arsenal’s new signing, Greek winger Christos Tzolis, impressed on debut against Coventry, delivering a fearless performance that saw him take four shots and make eight touches inside the opposition box—more than any Arsenal player that day. At 15/8 to score with Sky Bet, he presents an attractive option.
Conversely, Matty Cash is offered at 11/4 to be booked, a sensible wager given his propensity for disciplinary issues; he received twelve yellow cards last season and will likely be tasked with containing Tzolis. Overall, the early Premier League fixtures provide a wealth of betting angles, from goal‑line markets to individual player props.
By analysing recent form, historical trends, and tactical nuances, punters can identify value bets that the broader market may not have fully priced in yet.