Our leading tipster, Lewis Jones—known online as Jones Knows—was on fire last weekend, delivering a series of sharp predictions that paid off handsomely. The big question now is whether he can replicate that success in the upcoming fixtures. One of the standout bets centers on Marc Guehi, who has been fouled an astonishing 43 times across his last 17 appearances for both club and country.
In ten of those games, opponents committed two or more fouls against him, giving him a foul‑draw rate of roughly 59 percent. This figure sits comfortably above the implied probability of the 5/4 odds offered by Sky Bet, signalling a clear value opportunity. The visual evidence backs the statistics.
Gueji’s composure under pressure has improved dramatically over the past year. He now welcomes challenges, shields the ball with confidence and has become adept at using the momentum of defenders to his advantage.
These traits make him a prime candidate to attract fouls, especially when he returns to Selhurst Park for the first time since leaving Crystal Palace for Manchester City. The home crowd and the Palace players are likely to target him, effectively putting a target on his back. Adding to the intrigue, Enzo Maresca surprised many by deploying Guehi in a central‑midfield role against Bournemouth.
Should he be positioned there again, the odds become even more enticing for punters. Turning our attention north to Anfield, there is a prevailing expectation of open, attacking football from Liverpool’s newly‑formed side under manager Andoni Iraola. While the offensive outlook looks promising, the goals market seems to be demanding more from Nottingham Forest than they have demonstrated under Oliver Glasner.
Forest have failed to find the net in both matches against Leeds, recording a combined expected‑goals tally of just 1.4 over 180 minutes. Their lack of cutting‑edge firepower is worrying.
Glasner has repeatedly highlighted the upheaval he inherited at Forest—key departures, limited preparation time and a squad still adjusting to his tactical ideas. The rebuilding process may take longer than fans hope.
Historically, Glasner’s teams have struggled to break down Iraola’s sides, failing to score in four of their last five encounters. This trend reinforces the case for backing the under‑2.5‑goals market at 5/4 with Sky Bet as a value play.
Another player worth watching is Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall, who featured prominently in last week’s column after scoring against Crystal Palace. I am keeping my 4/1 Sky Bet bet on him because his role has evolved beyond that of a traditional midfielder. In the Palace game he operated as an advanced No 10, arriving late in the box and finishing with a superb left‑footed strike.
He logged three shots, one on target, and four touches inside the opposition penalty area. A week later, against Preston in the Championship, he recorded seven attempts, confirming his newfound license to attack. Partnered with Thierno Barry, Dewsbury‑Hall now finds pockets of space between midfield and defence, allowing him to arrive in goal‑scoring positions without relying on late runs from deep.
Bournemouth’s defensive set‑up should provide him with further chances to exploit these gaps. When two newly promoted teams meet early in a Premier League season, the goal market becomes especially attractive. In the last 36 such fixtures, the combined score has exceeded 1.5 goals on 35 occasions.
Moreover, the most recent five promoted sides all won their first home game of the campaign, suggesting a positive outlook for Coventry City. However, Frank Lampard’s side still have defensive frailties to address after a 3‑0 loss to Arsenal on opening day and a two‑goal concession to Plymouth in the Carabao Cup.
Hull City have also enjoyed a dream start, stunning Manchester United 2‑0 last weekend. Their win was built on disciplined aggression, solid organisation and a lethal set‑piece threat—elements that could make them difficult opponents for many clubs this season. From a betting‑system perspective, a one‑unit stake on Hull whenever they have started a game at odds greater than 2/1 since the start of last season would have yielded a profit of £34.96, thanks to away victories over Millwall (twice), Middlesbrough and, most impressively, United.
For a safer approach, the combination of both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at even odds with Sky Bet offers a balanced risk‑reward profile. Sometimes a poor performance can be a warning sign; other times it creates a pricing inefficiency. I lean toward the latter when evaluating Tottenham Hotspur.
Their 3‑0 defeat at Brentford was disastrous: the side looked disjointed, physically outmatched and defensively porous. Manager Roberto De Zerbi admitted after the game that his squad was "not a team" yet. Nevertheless, De Zerbi has a strong record in matches immediately following a loss by three or more goals, winning eight of his last eleven such games and averaging 2.1 goals for his side. This sample size is sufficient for me to view Tottenham’s 6/5 odds with Sky Bet as a worthwhile bet.
The Brentford loss was mitigated by several factors: five debutants started, key players Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro missed the game, and a number of squad members returned late from the World Cup or endured disrupted pre‑season preparations. While these issues do not excuse the poor display, they suggest that the underlying problems are fixable and that Spurs may bounce back quickly.
Chelsea appear to possess the most potent attack in the league at the moment. Their recent 3‑0 victory over Fulham showcased an aggressive, vertical and at times chaotic style. Xabi Alonso’s front three—Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers and João Pedro—combined for all three goals, and Alonso praised their contribution as central to his vision for the team. However, the match also exposed defensive vulnerabilities, with goalkeeper Robert Sánchez committing a costly error that led to a concession.
If Chelsea can tighten up at the back while maintaining their attacking verve, they should regularly produce high‑scoring affairs. Betting on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 4/5 with Sky Bet seems a prudent strategy for their upcoming fixtures.
Brentford, on the other hand, fired 26 shots last weekend and recorded an expected‑goals total of 3.87—the highest xG of the opening weekend. Yet their road form under Keith Andrews has been modest, averaging just 1.15 goals per game away from home. Their previous meeting with Hull ended 0‑0, a dull affair with a combined xG of only 0.98. Given the defensive caution likely to dominate this encounter, a draw and under‑2.5‑goals at 100/30 with Sky Bet offers solid value.
While many pundits focused on Cole Palmer after Chelsea’s win, Fulham’s teenage striker Josh King also made a strong impression. King opened the scoring at Craven Cottage, logged three shots (two on target) and was a constant menace in transition.
He demonstrated the willingness to carry the ball forward and take responsibility, suggesting he could become a regular attacking outlet for Fulham. The market still undervalues him, offering 9/2 odds on a goal with Sky Bet—a tempting proposition in what promises to be a tightly contested match. Set‑piece betting remains a compelling angle.
Manchester United won just 42 percent of their duels in the 2‑0 loss to Hull, the lowest figure among Premier League sides on opening day. Since Michael Carrick took over, United have allowed 20 league goals in 18 games, half of which have come from set‑pieces.
Only Bournemouth and Leeds have conceded a higher proportion of goals from dead‑ball situations. Hull exploited this weakness perfectly, scoring both goals from set‑pieces at Old Trafford.
Ipswich Town’s first‑touch specialist Dara O’Shea is a key figure on their set‑piece routine, averaging 0.95 shots per 90 minutes over the past year—a high output for a defender. He is priced at evens for at least one shot and 18/1 to find the net with Sky Bet, representing a worthwhile gamble.
Arsenal’s new signing Christos Tzolis made an instant impact on his Premier League debut, delivering a fearless performance against Coventry. He recorded four shots and eight touches inside the opposition box—more than any Arsenal player in that match. At 15/8 to score, he is a player worth monitoring, especially with Matty Cash priced at 11/4 to be booked, given Cash will likely be tasked with containing the Greek winger. In summary, the early weeks of the Premier League season are already providing a rich tapestry of betting opportunities—from value fouls on Marc Guehi and emerging attacking roles for Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall, to set‑piece specialists like Dara O’Shea and high‑scoring potential in Chelsea’s games.
By analysing statistical trends, historical match‑ups and recent form, punters can identify markets where the odds offered by bookmakers exceed the true probability, creating profitable betting scenarios.