Chelsea and Tottenham are kicking off the new campaign with a fresh sense of optimism, bolstered by revamped squads and the relief of not having midweek European fixtures to juggle. Both clubs have undergone significant changes over the summer, and the absence of continental competition could translate into a tangible boost in their Premier League points totals. For Chelsea, the summer has been a period of transformation.
A new head coach has taken the reins, the club shattered the British transfer record to bring in top‑quality talent, and the youthful core that finished last season as the youngest side in the league has been supplemented with seasoned professionals. This blend of experience and youthful energy is designed to give the Blues a more balanced, competitive edge. Tottenham, meanwhile, have embraced a different tactical philosophy under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Italian‑born manager has introduced a more fluid, attacking style of play, free from the looming threat of relegation that haunted the club in previous years. Additionally, a slightly more generous budget has allowed Spurs to secure several key signings, adding depth and quality to the roster. Both clubs missed out on European football after under‑performing domestically last season. This lack of continental involvement means fewer midweek trips, reduced squad rotation, and more time for focused training sessions—factors that historically have helped teams improve their league performance.
To put this into perspective, Sky Sports conducted an analysis dating back to the 2008‑09 season, looking at the so‑called "big six" clubs that participated in UEFA competitions one year and then missed out the following season. The study compared league points and final positions across those consecutive campaigns. Although the sample size is modest, the trend is striking: out of 11 instances where a big‑six side dropped out of Europe, ten saw an increase in points and a higher league finish, a success rate of roughly 91 per cent.
The most notable example comes from Chelsea’s own history. In the turbulent 2015‑16 season, Jose Mourinho left the club and was replaced temporarily by Guus Hiddink. Chelsea finished a disappointing 10th place and failed to qualify for any European competition.
The following year, under Antonio Conte, the Blues surged to the top of the table, amassing 93 points—43 more than the previous season—and clinching the title, seven points clear of Tottenham. Fast‑forward to the present, a similar narrative is emerging.
After a chaotic 2025‑26 season that saw Enzo Maresca exit and Liam Rosenior step in before Calum McFarlane took over for the final stretch, Chelsea again finished 10th. The question now is whether Xabi Alonso, the new manager, can replicate Conte’s dramatic turnaround. Statistically, the average improvement for teams that drop out of Europe is about 16 points, with an average climb of nearly five league positions.
Seven of the eleven examined seasons even ended with a top‑four finish, highlighting the potential upside of a lighter schedule. It is important to note that the absence of European matches is just one piece of the puzzle.
Natural regression after a poor domestic campaign, managerial changes, and significant investment in player acquisitions also play crucial roles in boosting performance. However, the reduced fixture congestion does offer practical benefits: fewer games mean less need for squad rotation, allowing managers like Alonso and De Zerbi to field their strongest line‑ups more consistently. It also grants players longer, uninterrupted training periods and reduces the physical strain caused by rapid turnarounds between midweek and weekend fixtures. Looking specifically at Chelsea, the club’s "true" level can be gauged by examining the first half of last season under Enzo Maresca.
At the time of his departure, Chelsea had accumulated 30 points from 19 games and were struggling to find form, winning only one of Maresca’s final seven matches. Their trajectory suggested a 60‑point season, which might have been enough for Champions League qualification. This season, with Alonso at the helm and the benefit of a lighter schedule, the Blues could see that baseline lifted further. Potential contributors to a Chelsea surge include the tactical acumen of Xabi Alonso, the impact of newly signed experienced players, the emergence of Morgan Rogers, and the continued development of talents like Cole Palmer.
Each of these elements could combine to push Chelsea into genuine title‑contending territory. For Tottenham, the equation is similar but with its own nuances.
De Zerbi’s system emphasizes fluid, attacking football, and the return to full fitness of key midfielder James Maddison could provide the creative spark the team needs. New defensive signings and midfield reinforcements are also expected to shore up areas that were previously vulnerable.
If these pieces click, Spurs could realistically challenge for a top‑four finish, if not higher. Historical precedent supports this optimism. In 2022‑23, while Tottenham reached the Champions League round of 16, their Premier League form suffered, culminating in an eighth‑place finish with 60 points.
The following season, without any European commitments, they rose to fifth place, tallying 66 points—a clear illustration of how a reduced schedule can translate into league success. Manchester United provide another case study. Last season they played just 40 games across all competitions, a relatively light load that contributed to a dramatic climb up the table and a return to the Champions League. Their experience underscores the broader principle that fewer matches can lead to better domestic outcomes.
In summary, while it would be simplistic to attribute any future success solely to the lack of European fixtures, the historical data suggests a strong correlation between dropping out of Europe and improved league performance for the Premier League’s elite clubs. Chelsea and Tottenham, armed with new managerial ideas, fresh signings, and more time to prepare each week, are well‑positioned to capitalize on this trend. If they can harness the extra recovery and training time effectively, both clubs could enjoy a season of higher points totals, better league positions, and perhaps even a taste of the title race for Chelsea and a solid top‑four challenge for Spurs.