The summer hiatus for Formula 1 has come to an end, and the 2026 championship kicks off again this weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix, marking the beginning of the final stretch of the season. With the title race tightening, we turned to Sky Sports F1 analyst Karun Chandhok to dissect the most pressing issues both on the circuit and behind the scenes, and to offer his predictions for how the remainder of the year could unfold.
Karun notes that Kimi Antonelli currently enjoys a commanding 50‑point lead in the drivers' standings, positioning him as the clear front‑runner. Behind him, Lewis Hamilton trails by a modest margin, while Lando Norris—who claimed victory in Hungary—has slipped to fifth place. With two sprint events and up to twelve Grands Prix still to run, a maximum of 316 points remain available before the championship concludes in December.
"Realistically, this is Antonelli's title to lose," Chandhok explains. "No driver has overturned such a deficit since the points system changed in 2010.
Kimi is confident, the car feels right to him, and he’s extracting the maximum performance. The only vulnerability we see is Mercedes' reliability, which could open a window for a challenger, but they are working hard to fix that.
In essence, Antonelli’s championship is the one most likely to slip away, which is remarkable for someone in only his second season in F1." He adds that the upcoming upgrades from Ferrari and Mercedes could shake things up. "If Ferrari’s new parts deliver, or if Mercedes’ upgrades give George Russell a boost, we could see a tighter battle. Russell has suffered from bad luck and a pace deficit this year, so any improvement could make him a genuine threat. In my view, only Hamilton or perhaps Russell could challenge Antonelli, but the odds still favor the young Italian." The discussion then shifted to the importance of in‑season development.
This year, teams are still learning how to extract performance from the brand‑new 2026 aerodynamic regulations and power units. The first half of the campaign saw several teams make sizable gains when they introduced new packages, while others lagged behind.
That pattern is expected to persist after the summer break. Regarding McLaren, Karun says, "Their strong showing in Budapest suggests they have a solid baseline for Zandvoort. They have additional rear‑end upgrades arriving this weekend, which could further close the gap." He also highlighted Red Bull’s situation: "Red Bull has been inconsistent lately. Across the season they have been the fourth‑fastest car, which is not ideal for keeping Max Verstappen satisfied.
It will be interesting to see if they can resolve their reliability and performance issues and get back to winning form." Fernando Alonso’s future was another hot topic. The 45‑year‑old Spaniard, who became a father earlier this year, is weighing whether to extend his career into a record‑breaking 24th season.
While some speculate his decision hinges solely on Aston Martin’s competitiveness in 2027, Karun points out that the broader regulatory environment also matters. "If Aston Martin and Honda can show real progress and give Alonso a car that at least reaches Q3, he will stay.
He won’t remain if he’s stuck in Q1 night after night." Aston Martin’s performance trajectory was also examined. After a rocky start to the season plagued by chassis and engine issues, the team introduced a significant upgrade in Hungary that appeared to lift them off the back of the grid.
Further refinements to Adrian Newey’s AMR26 chassis and a long‑awaited power‑unit update slated for Zandvoort could provide a springboard toward 2027. Karun emphasizes that occasional Q3 appearances this year would lay a solid foundation for future success, especially if the engine upgrade improves straight‑line speed, which was notably weak at Spa. The summer break also produced a rare sequence of five different winners in as many races, with podiums shared among Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren’s Lando Norris.
Karun believes this diversity could continue: "We could see race wins from Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes, and Max if Red Bull’s upgrades click. Max was close in Austria, and with a couple of performance jumps he could be back on top." Looking ahead to October, Formula 1 will return to the beloved Sepang International Circuit for the first time in nine years, after Malaysia agreed to host the Bahrain Grand Prix. Sepang is celebrated for its challenging corners and fan‑friendly atmosphere. Karun, who first raced there in 2001, expressed enthusiasm: "Sepang’s layout is demanding and great for racing.
The heat will be intense, so tyre management will be crucial. The new cars have ample opportunities to harvest and recharge energy, so we should see an exciting race." In the bookmakers’ market, Antonelli’s half‑century lead makes him the favorite, with Hamilton and George Russell as the next most likely contenders.
Mercedes, had they not suffered reliability setbacks, would likely be comfortably ahead of Ferrari. Nonetheless, Ferrari outscored Mercedes in each of the three pre‑break races and, with reliability on their side, remain a threat. McLaren, 78 points behind Red Bull with twelve races left, also retains a mathematical chance. Summarising his outlook, Karun concludes: "Antonelli’s drivers’ title is the one most likely to slip away, while Mercedes’ constructors’ championship is theirs to lose.
The remainder of the season will be defined by how quickly teams can develop under the new rules, how reliable the power units become, and whether any surprise upgrades can overturn the current hierarchy." Fans can watch every session live on Sky Sports, with a Sprint weekend at Zandvoort starting on Friday, and stream the coverage via NOW without a contract, cancelable at any time.