Chelsea and Tottenham are kicking off the new campaign with a fresh sense of optimism, revamped squads and the relief of not having mid‑week European fixtures to juggle. Both clubs have undergone significant changes over the summer, and the absence of continental commitments may give them a tangible edge in the race for league points. For Chelsea, the summer has been a period of transformation.
A new head coach has taken the reins, the club shattered the British transfer record to bring in high‑profile talent, and the previously youthful roster has been bolstered with seasoned professionals. This blend of experience and ambition signals a clear shift in direction after a turbulent previous season. Tottenham, on the other hand, have embraced a fresh tactical approach under Roberto De Zerbi.
The spectre of a relegation battle has been replaced by a realistic push for a top‑six finish, and a more relaxed budget has allowed the Spurs hierarchy to make strategic signings that complement De Zerbi’s style of play. The Blues and the Spurs share a common denominator: neither will be competing in Europe this term because of underwhelming domestic performances last season. The question that naturally follows is whether the lack of European football can translate into a higher points total and a better league position. To answer that, Sky Sports conducted a historical review that reaches back to the 2008‑09 season, examining every instance in which one of the traditional "big six" clubs participated in a UEFA competition one year and then missed out the following season.
The analysis compared league points and final standings across those consecutive campaigns, providing a modest but insightful data set. One of the most striking examples from the past is Chelsea’s own experience in the mid‑2010s.
After a chaotic 2015‑16 season that saw Jose Mourinho depart and Guus Hiddink finish the campaign, the Blues ended the year in 10th place and missed out on Europe. The very next season, under Antonio Conte, Chelsea surged to a league‑winning 93 points – a 43‑point increase – and finished seven points clear of Tottenham.
This dramatic turnaround illustrates how a club can rebound strongly when European distractions are removed and a new managerial vision is installed. Fast‑forward to the present: the 2025‑26 season saw Enzo Maresca leave Chelsea early, with Liam Rosenior stepping in before Calum McFarlane took charge for the final stretch, culminating in another 10th‑place finish. The parallel with the 2015‑16 scenario is evident, and fans are now wondering if Xabi Alonso can replicate Conte’s resurgence. When we look at the broader picture since 2008‑09, a "big six" side has moved from a European‑involved season to a non‑European season eleven times.
In ten of those eleven instances – a 91 percent success rate – the club improved both its points total and league position. Liverpool are the sole outlier, dropping from 58 points and sixth place in 2010‑11 to 52 points and eighth the following year. Chelsea’s own recent history supports the trend. Under the current ownership, Mauricio Pochettino’s side climbed 19 points to finish sixth in 2023‑24, while Tottenham, managed by Ange Postecoglou, secured a fifth‑place finish the same year.
In 2022‑23, Spurs reached the Champions League round of 16, but their league form suffered, ending eighth with 60 points. The following season, without any European commitments, they rose to fifth with 66 points – a clear six‑point uplift.
Aggregating the eleven qualifying sequences, the average points increase in the non‑European season is 16 points, and clubs typically climb almost five places in the table. Seven of those eleven campaigns concluded with a top‑four finish, underscoring the potential upside of a lighter fixture list. It would be simplistic to attribute the improvement solely to the absence of European games. Naturally, clubs that underperform domestically are likely to make managerial changes and invest heavily in new players, both of which can drive better results.
However, the reduced number of matches does provide practical benefits: fewer squad rotations, more focused training sessions for the head coach, and longer recovery periods between fixtures. For Chelsea and Spurs, this means Xabi Alonso and Roberto De Zerbi can implement their ideas without the constant pressure of mid‑week travel and quick turnarounds. Considering Chelsea’s prospects, the club’s true quality is still being defined.
In the first half of last season under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea amassed 30 points from 19 games, but their form dipped dramatically toward the end, with just one win in the final seven matches. At that pace, they were on track for a 60‑point season – enough for a Champions League berth – but the managerial upheaval disrupted any momentum. This season, Alonso has the advantage of a full pre‑season, a refreshed squad, and the added benefit of not having to balance European fixtures. While it would be reductive to claim that a lighter schedule alone will propel Chelsea into a title challenge, the combination of strategic signings, the integration of seasoned veterans, and the emergence of young talents such as Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer could create a formidable side.
Spurs’ situation mirrors this narrative. De Zerbi’s tactical blueprint, which emphasizes fluid attacking play and high pressing, can be honed without the fatigue associated with Champions League travel. The return of James Maddison to full fitness, alongside the impact of newly acquired defenders and midfielders, gives Tottenham a solid platform to push for a top‑four finish.
Their recent history of improving after a European‑free season suggests that the club’s ambitions are realistic. A comparable case is Manchester United, who played only 40 matches last season due to early exits from Europe. The reduced workload was cited as a factor in their dramatic climb up the table, ultimately securing a Champions League spot.
This precedent reinforces the idea that a lighter schedule can translate into better domestic performance. In summary, historical data indicates a strong correlation between missing out on European competition and an increase in Premier League points for the traditional powerhouses. While other variables – managerial changes, squad investment, and natural regression from a poor season – play crucial roles, the freedom from mid‑week European fixtures provides both Chelsea and Tottenham with a valuable strategic advantage. If they can harness that freedom effectively, both clubs may find themselves competing for higher league positions, and perhaps even a place in the coveted top‑four, as the season unfolds.