Chelsea and Tottenham are kicking off the new Premier League campaign with a fresh sense of optimism, newly assembled squads and the relief of not having to juggle mid‑week European fixtures. Both clubs have undergone significant changes over the summer, and the absence of continental commitments could prove to be a hidden advantage as they aim to climb higher up the table. For Chelsea, the summer has been a period of transformation.
A new manager has taken the helm, the club shattered the British transfer record to bring in high‑profile talent, and the roster has shifted from being the youngest side in the league last season to one that now blends youthful energy with seasoned experience. The arrival of experienced players is intended to provide the stability and leadership that were missing during a turbulent previous campaign. Tottenham, on the other hand, have embraced a different tactical philosophy under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Italian coach has introduced a more fluid, attacking style of play, and the club has benefited from a slightly relaxed budget that allowed them to add depth in key areas. The spectre of a relegation battle that haunted them in recent years has largely faded, giving the Spurs a platform to focus on progress rather than survival. Both teams missed out on European competition because of under‑whelming domestic performances last season.
That lack of extra fixtures means they will have fewer matches overall, which could translate into more rest, fewer injuries and a greater ability to keep their strongest eleven on the pitch week after week. Historically, this pattern has often coincided with an increase in league points for clubs that drop out of Europe for a season. To put the idea into perspective, Sky Sports conducted an analysis that looked back to the 2008‑09 season and identified every instance where a traditional "big six" club played in a UEFA competition one year and then missed out the following season.
The study compared the points totals and final league positions across those consecutive campaigns. Although the sample size is modest, the trend is striking: out of eleven such occurrences, ten clubs improved both their point tally and league standing when they were not competing in Europe – a success rate of roughly 91 per cent. The most prominent example is Chelsea’s own recent history.
In the 2015‑16 season, a chaotic campaign saw Jose Mourinho depart and Guus Hiddink take over for the final stretch. Chelsea finished a disappointing 10th place and failed to qualify for any European tournament. The very next season, under Antonio Conte, the Blues surged to the top of the table, amassing 93 points – 43 more than the previous year – and winning the Premier League title. The dramatic turnaround illustrates how a change in management, combined with a lighter schedule, can produce a remarkable points boost.
A similar pattern emerged for Tottenham. In 2022‑23, Spurs reached the Champions League round of 16, but their league form suffered and they ended the season in eighth place with 60 points. The following year, stripped of European duties, they climbed to fifth place and accumulated 66 points, a six‑point improvement that also moved them closer to the Champions League spots.
When the data from all eleven qualifying sequences are aggregated, the average increase in points during a non‑European season is 16, and clubs typically rise about five positions in the final table. Moreover, seven of those eleven clubs finished the season in the top four, underscoring the potential upside of a lighter fixture list.
It is important to note that the absence of European matches is only one piece of the puzzle. Clubs that have previously underperformed domestically often benefit from natural regression, managerial changes, and significant investment in the transfer market. Nevertheless, the reduced need for squad rotation means that managers like Xabi Alonso at Chelsea and Roberto De Zerbi at Tottenham can plan more consistent training cycles, enjoy longer recovery periods, and avoid the tactical compromises that mid‑week travel often forces. Chelsea’s situation is particularly intriguing.
Early in the 2023‑24 season, under Enzo Maresca, the team had amassed 30 points from 19 games, a pace that suggested a possible 60‑point finish – enough to secure a Champions League berth. However, a poor run of form in Maresca’s final seven matches, where only one win was recorded, saw the club slip back down the table.
With Xabi Alonso now in charge, the Blues have added experienced signings and have the benefit of a less congested schedule, which could allow them to maintain a higher intensity throughout the season. For Tottenham, the key variables include De Zerbi’s tactical overhaul, the return to full fitness of James Maddison, and the impact of new defensive and midfield recruits.
The Spurs have the opportunity to build momentum without the distraction of European travel, and the continuity of a stable weekly routine could help them translate their playing style into consistent results. A comparable case is Manchester United, who played only 40 games last season due to an early exit from European competition.
That reduced workload was cited as a factor in their dramatic rise to a Champions League‑qualifying position, demonstrating that fewer matches can indeed free up physical and mental resources for domestic success. If the historical evidence holds true, Chelsea and Tottenham may find that missing out on Europe is not purely a setback but rather a catalyst for improvement. The combination of refreshed managerial ideas, strategic player acquisitions, and a less demanding match calendar could enable both clubs to exceed expectations and challenge for higher league placements, perhaps even a top‑four finish.
While it would be simplistic to attribute any future success solely to the lack of European fixtures, the data suggests that the upside of a lighter schedule is a factor worth considering as the season unfolds.