Hollie returns to set the scene for Friday’s premier races at York’s Ebor Festival, headlined by the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. The forecast, however, raises a note of caution: heavy rain has soaked the Knavesmire, and the resulting softer ground could undermine the chances of the lightning‑quick American challenger Bacio in the Coolmore City of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) at York. Bacio, trained by Wesley Ward, dazzled in the three‑year‑old handicap at Royal Ascot with a burst of speed that left spectators breathless. While the five‑furlong sprint at York should, in theory, suit his razor‑sharp turn of foot, his reputation has been built on firm, fast tracks.
A softer surface could blunt his edge, making the race a far more open contest than initially expected. In contrast, the Aga Khan Studs’ filly Rayevka offers a different skill set. She captured a Group race at Longchamp in May on yielding ground, then stepped up to contest the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she was outclassed by a superior opponent.
Rayevka’s versatility and speed suggest she may thrive on the rain‑softened turf, potentially turning the tables on Aidan O’Brien’s colt, who struggled on the July Cup track last year and appears to favor quicker going. If the ground stays soft, Rayevka could be the one to watch. Do not discount Adaay Of Scarlett in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00) at York simply because she has collected a string of runner‑up finishes. Hugo Palmer’s colt has consistently faced top‑class Group Two opposition this season—taking part in the Coventry Stakes, the July Stakes, and most recently the Richmond Stakes at the Goodwood Festival.
Though she has yet to break through to win, the horse has shown no fault in defeat. This race may present a slightly weaker field, offering a perfect platform to finally claim a victory. The addition of cheekpieces for the first time should give regular jockey Oisin Murphy a crucial extra gear, but he will need to adapt to the softer ground, which his dam handled well, providing a promising sign.
Aidan O’Brien’s Marco Polo also merits attention. The son of Night of Thunder, once a modest performer, has earned enough respect at Ballydoyle to be entered in this Group Two. As a half‑brother to the useful Saber Strike, Marco Polo could pose a serious threat to the more seasoned rivals, especially if he finds the softer going to his liking.
Local trainer Kevin Ryan boasts a stellar record in this particular contest, having secured four wins. His unbeaten colt Matteo, while perhaps slightly over‑priced, is targeting a third successive victory.
Matteo’s previous triumph came on a firmer Beverley surface, but his class suggests he could still produce a strong performance on the softer York turf. Caballo De Mar, a dual Group One winner, is looking to rebound from a sub‑par run in the Gold Cup when he lines up for the Group Two Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25). After a heat‑stress episode forced his withdrawal at the Royal meeting, the horse should now be ready to tackle the extended two‑mile distance, especially with the rain‑softened ground playing to his strengths. Ralph Beckett’s Amiloc remains untested over this stamina‑testing trip after a mishap at the Goodwood Cup, where he unseated his rider Hector Crouch at the start.
Nonetheless, the longer distance could suit him well; last season he was a top performer, including a win in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes. This could be his opportunity to rediscover that form.
I will be rooting for Archie Watson’s progressive three‑year‑old Exclusive Code in the opening Sky Bet Mile Handicap (1:50) at York. The colt, a son of Blue Point, displayed front‑running dominance at Goodwood, repelling a strong challenge from Zennor Storm, who finished an eye‑catching second. While Exclusive Code excelled on good to soft ground at Goodwood, the current conditions may be less favorable, and I anticipate a strong showing from Wathnan Racing’s gelding instead. Zennor Storm’s trainer, William Haggas, also has Eklleem entered.
Eklleem broke well at Ripon and looks a respectable prospect, though the step up in class and the unfavourable draw could prove challenging. Ralph Beckett’s improving four‑year‑old Master Vintner ticks all the boxes for the mile‑and‑a‑half Assured Data Protection Handicap (4:10).
A winner on heavy ground at Goodwood last autumn, the Mastercraftsman‑sired horse sharpened his form in blinkers at Thirsk earlier this month and appears capable of handling a five‑pound weight increase. Finally, Master Builder heads to the Knavesmire after a win earlier in May, suggesting he may have more to give over the higher class contest.
Likewise, Jane Chapple‑Hyam’s chestnut Primo Lara, who debuted smoothly at Ascot, should not be overlooked as a potential dark horse in the mix. In summary, the softening of the York turf introduces a level of unpredictability that could see several outsiders rise to the occasion. Bacio’s brilliance may be muted by the rain‑softened ground, while Rayevka’s adaptability positions her as a strong contender. Adaay Of Scarlett, Marco Polo, Matteo, and the seasoned stayers such as Caballo De Mar and Master Vintner all have plausible pathways to success.
As the day unfolds, the jockeys’ ability to gauge the ever‑changing ground will be as crucial as the horses’ inherent talent, promising an exhilarating and tightly contested Nunthorpe weekend.