Paul Merson’s newest column offers a comprehensive look ahead at the 2026/27 Premier League campaign, examining both the clubs likely to vie for the crown and those fighting to avoid the drop. The season opens on Friday with the defending champions Arsenal welcoming newly promoted Coventry City, and Sky Sports will broadcast six live matches over the opening weekend. Merson outlines his preferred six‑team title race, evaluates the relegation candidates, and even highlights a potential surprise package that could upset the traditional powerhouses.
He begins with an unequivocal statement about Arsenal: "I can’t imagine anyone stopping them. They’ll clinch the league comfortably." In his view, Arsenal possess no discernible flaw in the domestic competition. While their European form may expose some frailties, their league squad resembles the early‑day Manchester City sides that dominated with depth in every position. Defenders William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães are described as "unbelievable," and the arrival of Cristhian Mosquera adds a layer of cover that makes Saliba’s occasional absence almost invisible.
With Jurrien Timber out, Ben White steps in seamlessly, keeping opponents like Jeremy Doku at bay. Merson also praises the likes of Christos Tzolis, likening his reliability to a Ronseal product – he does exactly what is asked, maintaining discipline on the left wing throughout the match.
Although Tzolis and Gabriel Martinelli may not yet be Champions League material, Merson believes Arsenal have a significant signing in the pipeline, perhaps even a deal reminiscent of the Vinícius Júnior negotiations that once seemed speculative but ultimately materialised. Turning to Liverpool, Merson stresses that consistency is their only path to challenging Arsenal. Last season’s erratic performances left them far from title contenders.
Their squad lacks the depth of the Gunners, meaning key players must stay fit and feature in the majority of the 38 games. The absence of a true replacement for Mohamed Salah remains a glaring issue; despite his reduced goal tally, he still posed a threat, and manager Andoni Iraola still needs a reliable goal‑scorer to fill that void.
In midfield, Florian Wirtz is expected to finally hit his stride in England after a settling‑in period, while Alexander Isak’s injury‑prone campaign last term raises doubts about his availability and impact this season. Chelsea’s situation is characterised by the advantage of a once‑a‑week schedule, a factor Merson believes could be pivotal. Their ambition is to secure a top‑five finish, but he cautions against premature optimism. The last time Chelsea won the league in 2017, they were not burdened by European commitments.
Merson notes that if Xabi Alonso can integrate Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers as dual No 10s, perhaps employing a back three, Chelsea could enjoy a strong campaign. However, he worries about a potential midfield triangle involving Palmer, Rogers, and João Pedro, which could lead to congestion and diminish effectiveness.
Even with Alonso’s tactical acumen, Merson doubts Chelsea will amass the 85‑86 points he expects Arsenal to collect. Regarding Manchester City, Merson observes that the only realistic obstacle to Arsenal’s dominance is City itself, yet he doubts they will be able to match the Gunners. He highlights a post‑Community Shield sale of Rodri as a sign of weakening, though he acknowledges David Raya’s impressive goalkeeping display. Over a full season, Merson cannot envision City keeping pace with Arsenal’s consistency.
Tottenham Hotspur sit in a curious middle ground. Merson places them as potential dark‑horse top‑five finishers, noting their strategic acquisitions and the benefit of a lighter fixture list compared with clubs juggling European travel. Manager Roberto De Zerbi, according to Merson, can instil his preferred style given the reduced match frequency.
Historically, Spurs have lacked a dominant midfield, but recent signings could change that narrative, providing both defensive solidity and a more formidable engine in the centre of the park. Aston Villa’s fortunes are also discussed. After narrowly escaping relegation last season, they could have displaced Spurs from the top six, but Merson doubts they will finish above Tottenham this term. Manchester United, he warns, may struggle with the dual demands of domestic and European football.
Their squad depth is described as "wafer‑thin," and an injury to Bruno Fernandes would be disastrous. While the club has added Youri Tielemans and Andrey Santos, Merson questions the latter’s utility, noting he neither breaks up play nor creates chances. United’s defence remains prone to lapses, and without a commanding midfield, they are unlikely to challenge for the title. The newly promoted trio—Coventry City, Hull City and another club—will need to start strongly to survive.
Merson points out that Coventry’s early fixtures against Arsenal and Manchester City could be brutal, but a win over Hull would provide a vital confidence boost. He stresses that promoted sides rarely win four of their last five games, so early points are essential.
Mid‑table battles will feature Brentford and Brighton, both capable of upsetting higher‑ranked teams. Brentford’s pre‑season 7‑0 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt impressed Merson, even though they have lost Jordan Henderson.
Brighton, similarly, could pull off surprise results. In summary, Merson’s forecast paints Arsenal as overwhelming favourites, Liverpool as the only realistic challenger if they maintain fitness and find a goalscorer, Chelsea as a strong contender if they manage midfield balance, and Tottenham as a possible surprise package.
Manchester City, despite their pedigree, appear to be on a downward trajectory, while Manchester United and several other clubs face significant hurdles in both league and European commitments. The battle for survival will hinge on how quickly the promoted clubs adapt and whether established sides can avoid injury crises and maintain consistency throughout the grueling 38‑match schedule.