Chelsea and Tottenham are kicking off the new Premier League campaign with a fresh sense of optimism, bolstered by revamped squads and the relief of not having to juggle midweek European fixtures. Both clubs have undergone significant changes over the summer, and the absence of continental commitments could prove to be a decisive factor in their domestic performance. For Chelsea, the summer has been a period of transformation.
A new head coach has taken the reins, the club shattered the British transfer record to bring in high‑profile talent, and the squad has been reshaped with seasoned professionals added to what was last season's youngest lineup in the league. These moves signal a clear shift in direction, aiming to convert potential into tangible results. Tottenham, meanwhile, have embraced a different style of play under Roberto De Zerbi, free from the lingering fear of relegation that haunted them in previous years.
The manager has also benefited from a slightly more generous budget, allowing him to recruit players who fit his tactical vision. The Spurs side now looks more confident and better equipped to challenge for higher positions.
Both teams missed out on European competition after under‑whelming domestic campaigns last term. That omission, while disappointing on the surface, removes the strain of additional midweek travel, reduces the need for squad rotation, and grants more time for focused training sessions.
Historically, this combination has often translated into an increase in league points and a climb up the table. To put the idea into perspective, Sky Sports compiled data dating back to the 2008‑09 season, examining the ‘big‑six’ clubs that participated in UEFA competitions one year and then missed out the following season. The analysis compared points totals and final league positions across those consecutive campaigns. Although the sample size is modest, the trend is striking.
One of the most notable examples is Chelsea’s 2015‑16 season. After a turbulent campaign that saw Jose Mourinho depart and Guus Hiddink take over for the remainder, the Blues finished a disappointing 10th and failed to qualify for Europe. The very next season, under Antonio Conte, Chelsea amassed 93 points—a 43‑point surge—and clinched the title, finishing seven points ahead of Spurs. The dramatic turnaround illustrates how a change in circumstances, combined with strategic investment, can produce a remarkable points boost.
Fast‑forward to the present, and a similar narrative is unfolding. In 2025‑26, Enzo Maresca left Chelsea mid‑season, Liam Rosenior stepped in temporarily, and Calum McFarlane finished the campaign, with the club again ending in 10th place. The question now is whether Xabi Alonso can replicate Conte’s resurgence and deliver a comparable points increase. Looking at the broader data, since 2008‑09 a ‘big‑six’ side has moved from a European‑participating season to a non‑European one eleven times.
In ten of those eleven instances—about a 91 % success rate—the clubs improved both their points tally and league position. Liverpool is the sole outlier, dropping from 58 points and sixth place to 52 points and eighth in the 2011‑12 season. Chelsea has benefited from this pattern before. Under the current ownership, Mauricio Pochettino’s side jumped 19 points to finish sixth in 2023‑24.
A similar uplift was seen at Tottenham under Ange Postecoglou, who guided the team to a higher finish the following year. In 2022‑23, Spurs reached the Champions League round of 16 but struggled domestically, ending eighth with 60 points.
Without European fixtures in 2023‑24, they rose to fifth place, collecting 66 points. When we aggregate the eleven qualifying sequences, the average improvement in a non‑European season is 16 points, with clubs climbing nearly five places on average.
Seven of those eleven seasons concluded with a top‑four finish, underscoring the potential upside of a lighter schedule. Of course, the lack of European football is only one piece of the puzzle.
A poor domestic season often triggers managerial changes and significant spending, both of which can catalyse better results. However, this season Chelsea and Spurs will also benefit from fewer congested fixtures, meaning less squad rotation and more consistent training cycles for Xabi Alonso and Roberto De Zerbi. The reduced need for quick turnarounds between midweek and weekend matches should allow both managers to fine‑tune tactics and keep players fresher. Turning to Chelsea’s realistic prospects, it is difficult to pinpoint an exact ‘true’ level.
In the first half of last season under Enzo Maresca, the team had accumulated 30 points from 19 games before the Italian departed. Their form dipped toward the end, with only one win in the final seven fixtures, suggesting they were on track for a roughly 60‑point season—potentially enough for Champions League qualification. This year, Alonso may feel an extra boost from the reduced fixture load, but any title challenge will also hinge on his coaching acumen, the impact of newly signed experienced players, and the contributions of emerging talents such as Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer. For Tottenham, the equation is similar.
De Zerbi’s tactical system, James Maddison’s return to full fitness, and the influence of newly acquired defenders and midfielders could all combine to elevate Spurs’ performance. The absence of European commitments means the team can concentrate on league matches without the distraction of travelling abroad. A parallel can be drawn with Manchester United, who played only 40 games last season due to early exits from cup competitions.
That lighter schedule was cited as a factor in their dramatic climb to a Champions League‑qualifying position. History suggests that Chelsea and Spurs might also reap rewards from a season free of European duties.
In summary, while the lack of continental football alone does not guarantee success, the historical record indicates a strong correlation between a reduced fixture list and improved league outcomes for top clubs. Chelsea and Tottenham have the personnel, managerial expertise, and financial backing to capitalize on this advantage. If they can translate the extra preparation time into consistent performances on the pitch, they could well find themselves challenging for higher league positions—and perhaps even the title—this season.