Chelsea and Tottenham are kicking off the new campaign with fresh optimism, revamped squads and the relief of not having to juggle mid‑week European fixtures. Both clubs have undergone significant changes over the summer, and the absence of continental commitments could translate into a higher points haul and a better league standing. For Chelsea, the summer has brought a brand‑new manager, a record‑breaking domestic transfer, and a strategic shift that adds seasoned professionals to what was last season’s youngest Premier League roster.
The Blues have moved away from a squad built largely on youthful exuberance, opting instead for a blend of experience and talent that should help them compete more consistently. Tottenham, on the other hand, have embraced a fresh tactical approach under Roberto De Zerbi.
The Spurs boss now operates without the looming threat of relegation and has also benefited from a slightly more generous budget, allowing him to bring in players who fit his vision. The result is a team that can focus on implementing a new style of play without the distraction of European travel.
Both clubs missed out on European competition after under‑whelming domestic seasons last term. That lack of extra matches could prove advantageous, as history suggests teams often improve their league performance when they are not stretched across multiple competitions. To put this idea into context, Sky Sports examined seasons dating back to 2008 when the traditional "big six" clubs participated in UEFA tournaments one year and then found themselves out of Europe the following season.
By comparing points totals and final league positions across those consecutive campaigns, a pattern emerges, albeit from a relatively small sample size. One of the most striking examples comes from Chelsea’s 2015‑16 season. After a chaotic campaign that saw Jose Mourinho depart and Guus Hiddink take over for the remainder, the Blues finished a disappointing 10th in the Premier League and missed out on any European qualification. The very next season, under Antonio Conte, Chelsea surged to the title with 93 points – an increase of 43 points over the previous year – and finished seven points clear of Tottenham.
Fast forward to the 2025‑26 season, which mirrored that turbulence: Enzo Maresca left, Liam Rosenior stepped in temporarily, and Calum McFarlane finished the campaign, again ending in 10th place. The question now is whether Xabi Alonso can replicate Conte’s dramatic turnaround. Since the 2008‑09 season, a "big six" side has dropped out of Europe after a European‑qualified year on eleven occasions.
In ten of those eleven instances – a 91 % success rate – the clubs posted a higher points total and a better league finish the following season. Liverpool are the sole outlier, slipping from 58 points and sixth place in 2010‑11 to 52 points and eighth in 2011‑12. Chelsea have experienced this phenomenon under the current ownership before. After Mauricio Pochettino’s side amassed 19 more points to secure sixth place in 2023‑24, Tottenham – then managed by Ange Postecoglou – finished just above them.
In 2022‑23, while Conte was still in charge, Spurs reached the Champions League round of 16 but only managed an eighth‑place league finish with 60 points. The following season, with no European fixtures, they climbed to fifth with 66 points. Looking at the eleven qualifying sequences, the average points improvement in the non‑European season was 16 points, and clubs typically rose almost five places in the table. Seven of those eleven seasons concluded with a top‑four finish, underscoring the potential upside of a lighter schedule.
It would be simplistic to attribute the boost solely to the lack of European games. A poor domestic campaign often triggers managerial changes and significant investment in the squad, both of which can catalyse better results. Nonetheless, fewer mid‑week matches mean less squad rotation, more consistent training cycles, and reduced fatigue – all factors that can help a manager fine‑tune tactics and keep key players fresh. For Chelsea, the real question is whether they can mount a genuine title challenge.
Their "true" level is still a matter of debate, but a useful benchmark is the first half of last season under Enzo Maresca. At the point of his departure, Chelsea had accumulated 30 points from 19 games and were not firing on all cylinders, winning just one of Maresca’s final seven matches. That trajectory suggested a 60‑point season, potentially enough for Champions League qualification.
With Alonso at the helm and no European distractions, the club could exceed that baseline. Any potential surge will not be down to a lighter fixture list alone.
It will also hinge on Alonso’s coaching acumen, the impact of newly signed veterans, the emergence of Morgan Rogers, and the form of rising stars such as Cole Palmer. Similarly, Spurs’ fortunes may be shaped by De Zerbi’s tactical system, James Maddison’s return to full fitness, and the contributions of the new defensive and midfield signings. Manchester United provide a recent illustration of this principle.
Last season they played just 40 games across all competitions, a schedule that helped them dramatically improve their league position and secure a Champions League spot. If historical trends are any guide, both Chelsea and Tottenham could discover that missing out on Europe is not purely a setback but also an opportunity. A reduced workload may allow them to focus on domestic performance, refine their strategies, and ultimately climb the Premier League table higher than many pundits expect.
In summary, the combination of managerial fresh starts, strategic recruitment, and a lighter match calendar creates a fertile environment for both clubs to exceed expectations. While nothing is guaranteed, the data suggests that the absence of European football could be a catalyst for a points surge and a stronger finish for Chelsea and Spurs this season.