Hollie returns to set the scene for Friday's premier contests at York's Ebor Festival, headlined by the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. The forecast is a bit unsettling, however, as the heavy rain that has drenched the Knavesmire could alter the dynamics of the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) slated for Friday. My concern centers on the American speedster Bacio, whose lightning‑quick reputation was cemented in the three‑year‑old handicap at Royal Ascot. While the five‑furlong sprint at York should theoretically suit his rapid turn‑of‑pace, Bacio has historically thrived on firmer, faster ground.
A softer, rain‑softened surface could blunt his edge and open the door for other contenders. In stark contrast, the Aga Khan Studs’ French‑bred filly Rayevka has already proven her adaptability. She captured a Group race on the yielding turf at Longchamp in May and then stepped up to contest the Group One King Charles III Stakes at the Royal meeting, where she was only outclassed by the superior Mission Central.
Rayevka combines speed with a degree of versatility that makes her a genuine threat on softer ground, and the Nunthorpe could become the stage where she finally reverses fortunes against Aidan O'Brien’s colt, who appeared uncomfortable on the July Cup track last year and is generally better suited to faster going. Don’t be deterred by a string of runner‑up finishes when you consider Adaay Of Scarlett in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00) at York. Hugo Palmer’s colt has been a consistent presence in high‑profile Group Two races this season, taking part in the Coventry Stakes, the July Stakes and most recently the Richmond Stakes at the Goodwood Festival. Though he has yet to break his winless streak, his performances have been respectable, and the upcoming race offers a slightly weaker field where he can finally convert his form into a victory.
The addition of cheekpieces for the first time should give regular jockey Oisin Murphy an extra spark, while the softer ground may suit his pedigree, as his dam performed well on yielding surfaces. Aidan O'Brien’s Marco Polo also warrants attention.
The son of Night Of Thunder, who has only raced once, is evidently held in high regard at Ballydoyle to be entered in this Group Two contest. As a half‑brother to the useful Saber Strike, Marco Polo possesses the genetic tools to challenge more seasoned rivals and could emerge as a dark horse in the betting markets. Local trainer Kevin Ryan boasts an impressive record in this particular race, having secured four victories over the years.
His unbeaten colt Matteo, though possibly over‑valued, is aiming for a third successive win. The race conditions at York will be tougher than the Beverley track where Matteo previously triumphed, yet his class suggests he could still deliver a standout performance.
Turning to the longer distance events, Caballo De Mar – a dual‑winner at the highest level – will look to rebound from a sub‑par showing in the Gold Cup when he contests the Group Two Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25). After a heat‑stress episode forced his withdrawal at the Royal meeting, the seasoned horse should relish the extended two‑mile test, especially with the rain‑softened ground playing to his strengths.
Ralph Beckett’s Amiloc remains untested over this distance after a chaotic start in the Goodwood Cup that saw him unseat rider Hector Crouch. Nevertheless, the longer trip could unlock his latent stamina. Last season he proved his quality by winning the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes, and a return to form over two miles could see him shine once again.
In the opening mile handicap at York – the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (1:50) – I will be rooting for my boss Archie Watson’s progressive three‑year‑old Exclusive Code. The colt demonstrated the ability to handle a significant weight increase after a recent victory at the Goodwood Festival, and his prior form on good to soft ground suggests he can stay competitive despite the rising handicap. Exclusive Code, a son of Blue Point, commanded the race at Goodwood, holding off a strong challenge from Zennor Storm, who finished an eye‑catching second.
While the softer conditions at York may pose a new test, I anticipate that Wathnan Racing’s gelding will rise to the occasion. Zennor Storm’s trainer William Haggas also entered Eklleem, a horse that broke well at Ripon and showed promise. Though Eklleem appears attractive on paper, the step up in class and the unfavourable draw could make the race more demanding than his previous outing.
Ralph Beckett’s improving four‑year‑old Master Vintner checks all the boxes for the mile‑and‑a‑half Assured Data Protection Handicap (4:10). A proven performer on heavy ground at Goodwood last autumn, the Mastercraftsman‑sired colt sharpened his form after wearing blinkers for the first time at Thirsk earlier in the month. He now appears fully capable of handling a five‑pound weight increase and could be a key factor in the outcome.
Meanwhile, Master Builder heads back to the Knavesmire buoyed by a recent win over a similar course and distance in May. He may have even more to give at a higher rating, while Jane Chapple‑Hyam’s chestnut Primo Lara cannot be dismissed after a smooth debut at Ascot, indicating he could be a hidden threat.
Overall, the weather‑softened turf at York adds a layer of intrigue to the Nunthorpe and the surrounding races. Horses that have demonstrated adaptability on yielding ground, such as Rayevka, Caballo De Mar, and Master Vintner, may find the conditions to their advantage. Conversely, speed‑focused runners like Bacio could see their sharpness muted by the softer surface. As the festival progresses, bettors and enthusiasts alike will be watching closely to see which of these well‑rounded contenders can translate their pedigree and past performances into success on the rain‑softened track.