Nicolas Jackson's time at Chelsea was marred by his inconsistency in front of goal, leading to a reputation as an unreliable finisher. However, this does not necessarily mean that top clubs are mistaken in considering the Senegalese striker. Brentford owner Matthew Benham's comments at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference are particularly relevant in this context.
"For a striker, getting into position is far more informative than finishing," Benham explained. "There is a significant amount of randomness in finishing. If you show me two players at a similar level who both scored 15 goals last season, but one had twice the number of chances, I would choose the player with twice the chances." This principle applies to Jackson, who excels at getting into positions that result in shots.
Since the start of the decade, considering players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes and excluding penalties, only Erling Haaland has a higher expected-goals figure per 90 minutes than Jackson. Despite reaching double figures for Premier League goals in both his seasons at Chelsea, Jackson's problem was converting chances into goals. He managed to convert only 18 of his 61 big chances as a Premier League player.
Jackson's loan spell at Bayern Munich saw him continue to get into excellent positions, scoring 11 goals in all competitions. His goal return was impressive, but he was starved of minutes, starting only 15 matches. In terms of goals from open play in the Bundesliga, only Harry Kane had a better record per 90 minutes. Bayern coach Vincent Kompany is an admirer of Jackson, saying, "The guy has not done anything wrong, he trained extremely well, he won the AFCON, but there are always stories about a player or two." Kompany believes Jackson did his job well, and towards the end of the season, he scored in three consecutive Bundesliga games.
Aston Villa, who have just received a British record transfer fee of £117m from Chelsea for Morgan Rogers, may be interested in signing Jackson. Unai Emery has good reason to believe that he could get more out of Jackson, having worked with him at Villarreal. Jackson has credited Emery with teaching him everything about football, saying, "Unai taught me everything about football.
When I was from Senegal, I knew how to play, but I did not understand how to run on the pitch. He changed all that and made me into a different kind of player." With Jackson only 25 years old, there is still room for improvement, and Emery may be the perfect manager to help him reach his full potential.