During his stint at Chelsea, Nicolas Jackson earned an unfair reputation as a striker who frequently failed to finish chances. He missed a disproportionate number of clear-cut opportunities, leading many pundits to label him as unreliable in front of goal. However, this perception does not automatically imply that top clubs are making a mistake by still showing interest in the Senegalese forward.
In fact, a deeper look at his underlying numbers tells a more nuanced story. Brentford owner Matthew Benham highlighted a crucial point at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this year that is especially relevant when evaluating Jackson. Benham said, "For a striker, getting in position is far more informative than finishing." He went on to explain that finishing is subject to a large element of randomness.
"If you show me two players of similar quality who both scored 15 goals last season, but one of them created twice as many chances, I would prefer the one with the higher chance volume," Benham argued. This perspective shifts the focus from raw goal tallies to the ability to consistently find oneself in scoring positions.
Benham, whose data‑driven approach has helped Brentford punch above their weight, cited the example of Beto at Everton to illustrate his point, but the same principle applies to Jackson. "The fact that he is getting in position for the shot, that is really important for us," Benham added. When it comes to locating the spaces that lead to shots, Jackson is arguably among the best at the Premier League, despite the criticism he often faces. Statistical evidence backs up this claim.
Since the beginning of the 2020s, when you consider every player who has logged at least 5,000 Premier League minutes and exclude penalty goals, only Erling Haaland boasts a higher expected‑goals (xG) figure per 90 minutes than Jackson. In other words, Jackson is a true "chance magnet" – he repeatedly finds himself in positions where a goal is possible. Jackson did manage to hit double‑digit goal totals in each of his two seasons with Chelsea, but his conversion rate was a concern.
Out of 61 high‑quality chances in the Premier League, he converted just 18. This conversion percentage lagged behind the league's elite finishers and ultimately contributed to Chelsea's decision to explore other options. The pattern continued during his loan spell at Bayern Munich. While his goal return was respectable – 11 goals across all competitions – his minutes were limited, as he started only 15 matches.
Nevertheless, his goals‑per‑90‑minutes rate from open play in the Bundesliga was second only to Harry Kane. The marginal gap between Jackson and the eventual European Golden Shoe winner was modest: Kane averaged 0.79 open‑play goals per 90 minutes, while Jackson posted 0.72.
Criticism still follows him, but Bayern’s manager Vincent Kompany has been vocal in his support. Kompany remarked, "When everything is going well in the team, there are attempts to single out a player or two without any reason. The guy has not done anything wrong, he trains extremely well, he won the AFCON, but there are always stories about a player or two." He added that comparing Jackson to world‑class forwards such as Kane, Michael Olise or Luis Díaz is unfair, noting that Jackson simply does his job well.
Kompany’s confidence in Jackson was evident towards the end of the season when Bayern shifted focus to European competition. Jackson scored in three consecutive Bundesliga fixtures, a run that impressed Bayern legend Lothar Matthäus, who confirmed that Kompany would have liked to retain the forward but was constrained by the price tag Chelsea would demand. Aston Villa entered the picture after securing a British record transfer fee of £117 million for Morgan Rogers from Chelsea. The club cannot take Jackson on loan because they already have Alejandro Garnacho on loan from Chelsea, and UEFA rules would classify any additional Chelsea‑to‑Villa transfer within 45 days of the Rogers deal as a swap arrangement.
Nevertheless, Villa’s manager Unai Emery believes he can extract more from Jackson than anyone else. Emery first worked with Jackson at Villarreal, where the Senegalese striker flourished under his guidance.
Jackson himself has spoken openly about the impact Emery had on his development. "Unai taught me everything about football," he told Sky Sports. "When I was in Senegal, I knew how to play but I didn’t understand how to move off the ball. I was just running crazy, taking the ball and dribbling my way through.
He changed all that and turned me into a different kind of player." Jackson’s most memorable moment under Emery came when he scored the decisive goal in Villarreal’s final home game of the season against Almería, a match played under emotional circumstances following the death of the club’s vice‑president José Manuel Llaneza. After the match, Emery praised Jackson at the press conference, saying, "He has to evolve so that his work for the team can be transformed into effectiveness." The manager’s words hint at a belief that Jackson’s evolution is still ongoing and that further growth is possible.
At just 25 years old, Jackson is still in the early stages of his career. For context, Villa’s current striker Ollie Watkins is already 30, while Tammy Abraham, who spent a loan spell at Villa last season, is 28. Jackson’s youth gives him ample time to refine his finishing and fully realize the potential that his positioning statistics suggest. If Emery can replicate the tactical framework he employed at Villarreal—emphasising intelligent movement, pressing, and creating space for his forwards—there is a strong case that Jackson could become a far more prolific scorer at Villa.
The manager’s track record of developing players, combined with Jackson’s natural knack for finding chances, creates an intriguing prospect for Villa supporters. In summary, while Jackson’s goal‑scoring record may appear modest on the surface, the underlying data paints a picture of a forward who consistently gets into the right places.
His conversion rate has been a weakness, but with the right coaching, tactical setup, and confidence, that deficiency can be addressed. An Emery reunion at Aston Villa could provide the environment needed for Jackson to transform his positional excellence into a higher goal output, potentially turning him from an underrated talent into a key attacking asset for the club.