The Ballon d'Or, football’s most prestigious individual accolade, has always been influenced by a mixture of personal brilliance and the success of the teams a player represents. Historically, the award has tended to favor those who have guided their clubs or national sides to major trophies, using those triumphs as a platform to showcase their dominance. For example, Ousmane Dembélé captured the prize last season after playing a pivotal role in Paris Saint‑Germain’s historic first‑ever Champions League victory.
This year, however, the dynamics have shifted dramatically because the FIFA World Cup carries a weight that eclipses any club competition. The global tournament’s massive viewership and its status as the ultimate stage for footballing excellence mean that performances there can sway the voting public and journalists with a certainty that domestic leagues simply cannot match.
The question, then, is which players have maximised the World Cup’s influence to bolster their Ballon d'Or campaigns, and whose prospects have been undermined by the summer’s events? Let’s examine the main candidates and the arguments surrounding them.
Harry Kane entered the summer as the most prolific striker in Europe, having netted 61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern Munich and helping the German giants secure a domestic double. His goal‑scoring spree created a wave of optimism among England supporters, who imagined a World Cup run powered by a striker in peak form.
Unfortunately, England’s campaign fell short of expectations, exiting earlier than many pundits predicted. Kane’s individual contribution in the tournament also waned; after a respectable six‑goal tally, he was unable to propel his side into the final, and his performances in the last two matches were eclipsed by the dynamic play of midfield prodigy Jude Bellingham. While Kane’s club season was undeniably world‑class, the lack of a deep World Cup run left a noticeable gap in his Ballon d'Or résumé. Nonetheless, his combined tally of 73 goals across club and country still places him among the most prolific scorers of the modern era, keeping him in the conversation for the award’s second‑best scoring season since the turn of the millennium.
Barcelona’s teenage wonder, Lamine Yamal, emerged as another intriguing contender. At just 20 years old, Yamal became the first player to feature in both a UEFA European Championship final and a World Cup final before turning 20, and he managed to win both.
Although his statistical output at the World Cup was modest—only a single goal—his impact was far more nuanced. He won a decisive penalty against France in the semi‑final, a moment that changed the trajectory of the match. Moreover, Yamal’s dribbling and ball‑control were on full display throughout the tournament, culminating in a higher number of successful take‑ons than even Lionel Messi. Coupled with his 28 goal involvements in Barcelona’s LaLiga triumph, Yamal’s profile has risen dramatically, suggesting that if he does not claim the Ballon d'Or this year, his future prospects are bright.
Lionel Messi, the all‑time leader in Ballon d’Or victories with seven trophies, remains a perennial favorite. At 39, he delivered a World Cup performance that reminded the world why he is considered one of the greatest ever. He scored a hat‑trick against Algeria, added goals in the subsequent four matches, and played a decisive role in Argentina’s semi‑final victory over England. Although Kylian Mbappé edged him out for the Golden Boot—thanks in part to two goals scored in a dead‑rubber third‑place match—Messi’s overall influence, vision, and leadership were unmistakable.
Only four of the last 19 Ballon d’Or winners have not secured a major international trophy in the same year, and three of those were Messi himself. Given his age, a potential eighth Ballon d’Or would serve as a fitting capstone to an extraordinary career. Kylian Mbappé, meanwhile, made history by becoming the first player to win the World Cup Golden Boot twice.
He also ascended to become the tournament’s all‑time leading scorer. Despite these personal milestones, Mbappé’s campaign lacked the ultimate prize—a World Cup victory.
He openly expressed that he would have preferred to be a runner‑up in the final rather than the top scorer in a third‑place match, underscoring the importance he places on team success over individual accolades. France’s overall trophy haul this summer was limited, and Real Madrid, his club, endured a season without silverware.
Consequently, while Mbappé’s scoring pedigree ensures he remains a contender for future Ballon d’Or awards, the lack of a major trophy this year may delay his first win. Perhaps the most surprising narrative is the rise of Rodri. The Spanish midfielder, who suffered a serious ACL injury that sidelined him for much of the previous season, returned to the national team and delivered a series of masterful performances during the World Cup. He completed 122 line‑breaking passes in eight matches, a figure not seen since Xabi Alonso’s 2010 World Cup showing, and his composure in midfield earned him the Golden Ball award for the tournament.
Rodri’s club season with Manchester City was inconsistent due to careful minutes management, yet his impact on Spain’s dominant display was undeniable. He joins an elite group of only four players who have won the World Cup, European Championship, Champions League, and Ballon d’Or in their careers, underscoring his growing stature in world football. The upcoming 70th edition of the Ballon d’Or ceremony is scheduled for October 26 in London. While the shortlist for 2025 already hints at future stars such as Barcelona’s Aitana Bonmatí and PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé, the 2024 award will likely be decided by a blend of club consistency and World Cup brilliance.
Players who have combined high‑level club performances with decisive moments on the world stage—whether through goals, assists, or controlling midfield play—are poised to capture the votes of journalists, national team coaches, and the public. In summary, the World Cup has acted as a catalyst, amplifying the achievements of certain individuals while exposing the shortcomings of others. Kane’s club heroics could not compensate for England’s early exit; Messi’s near‑mythical resurgence reinforces his legacy; Mbappé’s scoring feats highlight the tension between personal records and team triumphs; Yamal’s youthful flair signals a new generation; and Rodri’s resurgence illustrates how a strong tournament performance can resurrect a player’s Ballon d’Or hopes.
As the football calendar moves forward, the interplay between domestic success and World Cup impact will continue to shape the narrative surrounding the sport’s most coveted individual award.