Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with his own insights to illuminate the Premier League’s most compelling narratives. This week’s focus centers on three key topics: - Can Arsenal out‑shoot Manchester City? - Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era - A player worth keeping an eye on this weekend Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s primary aim in the title race is to secure points, not to chase goal‑difference. "It’s simply about winning matches," the City manager told Sky Sports.
Yet, with Arsenal and City currently level on points and separated only by the number of goals scored, the margin could prove decisive in the final stretch. Arsenal drew a modest boost from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which briefly lifted the Citizens to the top of the table. While a win remains Arsenal’s top priority, that single point may not be sufficient on its own. A poorer result for the Gunners on Wednesday would have widened the gap even further.
Guardiola emphasized that improving goal‑difference is not merely an offensive task. "It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he explained. For Arsenal, the real question is whether they can elevate their attacking output to match the demands of a title chase. **Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape** Arteta can point out that his side trails City by only three goals—a gap that is far from insurmountable.
A significant factor in narrowing that difference has been Arsenal’s proficiency from set‑pieces. The Gunners have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, that advantage has begun to wane.
After a prolific spell that saw two corner goals in a 2‑0 win over Chelsea in early March, Arsenal have managed just one set‑piece goal in their last four league matches. Reviving that source of firepower will be crucial in the run‑in. **Open‑Play Creativity and Expected Goals** The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play production.
In the recent clash at the Etihad, Arsenal actually generated a higher total of open‑play expected goals (xG) than City—1.32 compared with City’s 0.98. Although the match ended in a loss, the underlying numbers suggest that the Gunners are capable of creating quality chances. Kai Havertz, playing as the central striker, was pivotal. He forced a one‑on‑one save from Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed a cross from Leandro Trossard over the bar in stoppage time after having already scored the equaliser.
Havertz’s presence as a target man allowed Arsenal to hold up the ball, link play, and pose a constant threat inside the City box. His five shots in the game were the most by any opposition forward at the Etihad this season, underscoring his impact. It was only Havertz’s second Premier League start up front this campaign, coinciding with the return of another player who has endured a season marred by injuries. Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most creative force on the pitch, creating more chances than any other player.
His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement for him, elevated Arsenal’s technical level in attack. **Injury Concerns and Squad Rotation** Looking ahead, Arteta must keep his key attackers fit for the final five league fixtures. Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from a minor knock for the upcoming game against Newcastle, will join Havertz and Ødegaard in the starting eleven. Remarkably, the trio has not started a Premier League match together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024—over a year ago.
Historical data highlights the importance of having all three on the field. When Arsenal line‑up includes Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka, the team averages 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces per game, identical to matches where any of them are absent.
However, the difference is stark in open‑play creativity: the trio’s presence lifts the side’s open‑play xG to 1.47 per match, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are missing. Securing simultaneous starts for the three is a logistical challenge, and it does not guarantee goals.
Saka has managed only two strikes in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has found the net once in his previous 21 outings. Supporting players must also step up—Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 games.
Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 Premier League goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition. His contribution could be decisive in the remaining fixtures against teams fighting relegation. **Mentality and Goal‑Difference Awareness** Arsenal’s players appear increasingly conscious of the goal‑difference factor.
Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you still want to push for more goals because we know the race will be tight." That mindset reflects a growing awareness that every additional goal could be the difference between lifting the trophy and finishing second. **Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles** While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle United continues to grapple with a faltering forward line under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th.
Currently sitting 14th after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild has yet to deliver. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances. Howe is now leaning on Danish U21 international William Osula as his preferred No 9, and Osula has shown promise by scoring in consecutive matches.
Nevertheless, veteran striker Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in two successive seasons, has not replicated that form, and the club’s top scorer this season is Bruno Guimarães with nine goals. **Other Premier League Action** In other fixtures, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will host Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle face off in the Saturday Night Football slot. Manchester United travel to Brentford for Monday Night Football, with coverage beginning at 6.30 pm on Sky Sports Premier League.
**Conclusion** Arsenal possess the tools to challenge Manchester City in the title race, particularly if they can harness their set‑piece dominance, improve open‑play creativity, and maintain the fitness of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka. The upcoming fixtures will test their resolve, but the combination of tactical adjustments and a goal‑hungry mentality could see the Gunners close the gap and possibly overtake City for the championship.