Welcome to The Radar, the Sky Sports column where Nick Wright blends statistics and personal insight to illuminate the stories that matter across the Premier League. This week’s focus centers on three key topics: - 🔴 Can Arsenal outscore Manchester City?
- ◼️ Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era - 🔍 A player worth watching this weekend Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race against Arsenal is simply to secure points, not to chase goal‑difference. "It’s all about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the total number of goals scored, the margin could become decisive. For Arsenal, the 1‑0 victory over Burnley that propelled City to the top of the table offered a glimmer of hope. Mikel Arteta’s side must, above all, keep winning, but a single result may not be sufficient. Wednesday’s encounter could have been far more damaging, so the narrow loss still leaves a door ajar.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not merely an attacking exercise. "It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he explained. For the Gunners, the bigger question is whether they can lift their attacking output to match the demands of a title showdown. ### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City—a gap that feels modest, especially when you factor in Arsenal’s exceptional set‑piece record.
The Gunners have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This advantage stems largely from precise delivery and aerial prowess, and it will be crucial to maintain this edge as the season winds down.
However, recent form shows a dip in set‑piece productivity: only one set‑piece goal in the last four league matches, after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. Re‑establishing that threat will be vital, but the larger area for improvement lies in open‑play scoring.
### Open‑Play Performance Against City Despite the 2‑1 defeat at the Etihad, Arsenal produced a respectable open‑play expected‑goals (xG) total of 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98. This suggests that the Gunners are creating quality chances even when the result does not reflect it.
Kai Havertz, playing his first full Premier League start as a centre‑forward this season, was instrumental. He held up the ball, linked play, and constantly threatened the City box, though he finished with just a single goal. Havertz’s five shots marked the highest tally by any opposition striker at the Etihad this campaign, underscoring his growing influence. His presence allowed Arsenal to play with a more defined focal point, freeing midfield creators to operate with greater freedom.
### The Creative Core: Odegaard, Saka and Havertz Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific chance‑creator in the match, while the inclusion of Eberechi Eze alongside Ødegaard elevated Arsenal’s technical level. Keeping these three players fit for the final five league fixtures is paramount. Arteta has hinted that Bukayo Saka, who is recovering from a minor injury, should be available for the Saturday clash against Newcastle.
It is worth noting that Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a league game together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024—almost a year and a half ago. Historical data from that period shows the trio’s combined presence dramatically boosts both set‑piece and open‑play expected goals. With all three on the pitch, Arsenal average 0.45 xG from set‑pieces and 1.47 xG from open play; without one or more, those figures fall to 0.45 and 1.11 respectively.
### Goal‑Scoring Concerns Across the Squad While the three stars are essential, the supporting cast must also contribute. Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke have combined for only three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 appearances. Viktor Gyökeres, despite a modest overall record, leads the Gunners with 12 league goals, nine of which came against lower‑half teams, indicating his potential value in upcoming matches against weaker opposition.
Gabriel Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports hinted at a collective mindset to increase the goal margin when winning: "When you’re ahead, you think, ‘let’s go out and score more,’ because we know the title race will be tight." This attitude, if translated into action, could help close the gap with City. ### Newcastle’s Struggles While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s front line remains a concern for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have averaged their lowest goals‑per‑game tally (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th.
Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their attacking rebuild appears faltering. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league outings combined. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 forward William Osula a starting role. Osula has shown promise, scoring in consecutive games, but the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far short of the numbers needed to climb the table.
### Other Premier League Fixtures - Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a bright moment from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. - Sunderland travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, broadcast on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 7 pm. - Arsenal face Newcastle in the Saturday Night Football slot, with coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
- Manchester United host Brentford on Monday Night Football, kicking off at 8 pm after a 6:30 pm pre‑show. ### Looking Ahead Nick Wright’s previous column correctly identified Arsenal’s technical bottleneck and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City at the Etihad.
As the season reaches its climax, the Gunners must harness their set‑piece superiority, improve open‑play creativity, and keep their key attackers healthy. If they can turn the marginal goal‑difference gap into a tangible advantage, they may yet outgun Manchester City and claim the Premier League crown. Play Super 6 for a chance to win £250 k – entry is free.