Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to illuminate the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus centres on three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth watching in the upcoming weekend fixtures.
Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s primary aim in the title race is to collect points, not to chase goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet the two clubs sit level on points and are separated only by the number of goals they have netted, meaning the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close. Arsenal took heart from City’s narrow 1‑0 win over Burnley, which briefly lifted the champions to the top of the table.
Arteta’s side also must secure victories in their remaining fixtures, but a win alone may not be sufficient if City continue to rack up goals. The Gunners’ recent performance at the Etihad offered encouraging signs despite the 2‑2 draw. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an offensive task. "It’s about scoring and not conceding, not just one side of the equation," he explained.
For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can raise the intensity and efficiency of their attack. Arsenal’s goal tally is now only three short of City’s, a gap that feels narrow thanks in part to their exceptional set‑piece record.
The Gunners have converted 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals this season, the highest in the league, compared with City’s eight. Arteta will be eager to see that supply line re‑activate, especially after a recent dip that saw only one set‑piece goal in four league games following a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. The more pressing area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
On that front, Arsenal can be proud: their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98 in the Etihad clash. Kai Havertz, deployed as the central striker, was pivotal. He held up the ball, linked play, and constantly threatened the City box, although he finished with just a single goal. His five shots represented the highest total for any opposition forward at the Etihad this season, underscoring his impact.
Martin ØØgaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, generating more chances than any other player. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, lifted Arsenal’s technical level.
Maintaining the fitness of key figures—ØØgaard, Havertz, and Bukayo Saka—will be essential for the final five league games. Arteta has hinted that Saka, who missed time with injury, should be available for the Saturday showdown with Newcastle. The last time the trio of Havertz, ØØgaard and Saka started together was the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024, nearly 18 months ago.
Their combined presence dramatically improves Arsenal’s open‑play expected goals: 1.47 per game when all three start versus 1.11 when one or more are absent. Yet simply fielding them together does not guarantee success; Saka has found the net only twice in his last 14 league outings, and ØØgaard has managed a solitary goal in his previous 21 appearances.
The supporting cast must also step up. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have contributed just three league goals between them this campaign, while Leandro Trossard has not scored in his last 13 matches. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads the Gunners’ scoring charts with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition, indicating he could be a valuable asset in the remaining fixtures. Arsenal’s players appear aware of the importance of goal difference.
Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning, you still think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know the race will be tight." This mindset suggests the squad is prepared to push for additional goals when the situation allows. While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle United presents a different challenge for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to a 14th‑place standing after three consecutive defeats, including a loss to Bournemouth. Their goal‑scoring rate has fallen to a post‑2021/22 low of 1.41 per game, and the substantial summer investment in forwards such as Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa (£124 million combined) has yet to yield returns—neither has scored in 24 league appearances.
Howe appears inclined to give Denmark U‑21 striker William Osula a starting role, after Osula’s recent brace in back‑to‑back games. Yet the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, while Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in consecutive seasons, has not replicated that form. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a bright moment from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United in the upcoming Monday Night Football fixture. Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle will meet in the Saturday Night Football clash, broadcast from 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Manchester United’s Monday night encounter with Brentford will kick off at 8 pm, with coverage beginning at 6.30 pm. In last week’s column, Wright argued that Arsenal’s technical shortcomings could be mitigated by starting Havertz against City at the Etihad, a point that seems increasingly relevant as the title race tightens. The battle for the Premier League crown now hinges not only on points but on who can produce the most goals, and Arsenal appear poised to make a serious push.
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