Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to illuminate the Premier League's most pressing narratives. This week’s focus revolves around three key topics: Arsenal's ability to outscore Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth watching this weekend. Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is to collect points, not to chase goal difference. "It’s simply about winning matches," he told Sky Sports.
Yet the two clubs sit level on points and are separated only by the number of goals they have scored, meaning that any shift in attacking output could prove decisive. Arsenal drew a sliver of optimism from City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily lifted the champions to the top of the table. Mikel Arteta’s side knows that a win is essential, but a solitary three points may not be sufficient if City continue to edge them on the scoring charts.
The Gunners cannot afford to let the gap widen, especially after a disappointing result at the Etihad. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an offensive task.
"You have to score and you have to keep a clean sheet – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can elevate their attacking performance to match City’s firepower. Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals behind Manchester City in the season tally – a margin that feels modest given their dominance in set‑piece situations.
The Gunners have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This proficiency has been a vital source of points, especially in tightly contested matches.
However, Arsenal’s recent set‑piece output has dipped, with just one set‑piece goal in their last four league games after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. Restoring that threat will be crucial as the season draws to a close.
The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play scoring. On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad, producing a higher expected‑goals (xG) total from open play than City – 1.32 compared with 0.98. Although the match ended in defeat, the underlying numbers suggest the Gunners can create quality chances when they are on the ball.
Kai Havertz, playing as Arsenal’s makeshift No 9, was instrumental in that performance. He won a one‑on‑one duel that was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed a Leandro Trossard cross over the bar in stoppage‑time after having already scored the equaliser.
Havertz’s ability to hold up play, link midfield to attack, and occupy City’s defensive line made him a focal point, even if he finished with just one goal. His five shots represented the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season, highlighting his impact despite only his second Premier League start up front. Alongside him, Martin Ødegaard was the most creative player on the pitch, crafting more chances than anyone else. The combination of Ødegaard and Eberechi Eze elevated Arsenal’s technical quality, showing how a balanced midfield can unlock stubborn defenses.
Looking ahead, Arteta will need to keep his key attackers healthy for the final five league fixtures. Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from injury for the upcoming clash with Newcastle, joins Havertz and Ødegaard in a trio that has not started together since the 5‑1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024. Their collective presence has historically boosted Arsenal’s open‑play expected goals from 1.11 to 1.47 per game, underscoring the importance of fielding all three.
Nevertheless, merely assembling the trio does not guarantee success. Saka has managed only two goals in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has found the net once in his previous 21 outings.
Supporting players must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 matches. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads the Gunners’ scoring chart with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could be vital in the remaining fixtures.
Arsenal’s set‑piece consistency remains a bright spot. Whether they start with their usual lineup or rotate, the team averages 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces per game, indicating a reliable source of points.
The challenge lies in translating that reliability into open‑play creativity. Gabriel Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports hinted at the squad’s mindset: "When you’re winning, you still want to push for more goals because we know the title race will be tight." The Gunners appear aware that a modest goal‑difference advantage could be the deciding factor if points are level. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s attacking woes continue to trouble Eddie Howe.
The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 season – and sit 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth. Their high‑profile signings, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, have failed to score in 24 league appearances combined, prompting Howe to consider giving Denmark U21 prospect William Osula a more prominent role. Osula has shown promise, scoring in back‑to‑back games, but Newcastle’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far short of the output needed to climb the table.
The club’s attacking rebuild appears stalled, and the upcoming showdown at the Emirates will test whether they can find a spark. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the Saturday Night Football slot, with Sky Sports providing live coverage. In summary, Arsenal possess the tools – a potent set‑piece unit, a creative midfield trio, and a capable striker in Havertz – to outscore Manchester City if they can maintain fitness and sharpen their open‑play finishing. The next few weeks will be a test of depth, resilience, and the ability to convert chances into goals, all of which will determine whether the Gunners can clinch the title in a high‑scoring shoot‑out against their rivals.