Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to illuminate the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus includes: - Can Arsenal outscore Manchester City?
- Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era - A player to watch this weekend Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City are concentrating on securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference in their clash with Arsenal. “It’s simply about winning games,” he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the number of goals they have netted, the margin could prove decisive. City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley that lifted them back to the top of the table offered Arsenal a glimmer of optimism. Mikel Arteta’s men still need to win their matches, but a single result may not be sufficient; a heavier defeat would have been far more damaging.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an offensive task. “It’s about scoring and not conceding – both sides of the equation,” he explained.
For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can raise their attacking output. Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City, a gap that feels modest thanks in large part to their superior set‑piece record.
The Gunners lead the league with 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, compared with City’s eight. After a recent dip – just one set‑piece goal in four league games – Arteta will be hoping the supply line revives, especially after the double from corners in the early‑March win over Chelsea at the Emirates.
The most glaring area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arsenal can take some comfort from the Etihad showdown, where they produced a higher total of expected goals (xG) from open play than City – 1.32 to 0.98.
Kai Havertz, playing as a makeshift No 9, was central to that uplift. He held up the ball, linked play, and constantly threatened the City box, even though he only managed one goal. His five shots marked the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season. Havertz’s return to the front line coincided with the comeback of another injury‑prone Arsenal player.
Martin ØØgaard emerged as the most prolific creator in the match, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze raised the technical quality of the Gunners’ attack. Arteta will be eager to keep these key figures fit for the final five league fixtures, alongside Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from injury for the upcoming clash with Newcastle.
It is worth noting that Havertz, ØØgaard and Saka have not started a Premier League game together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly a year and a half. When all three are on the pitch, Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains steady, averaging 0.45 expected goals per game regardless of their presence. However, open‑play creativity shows a clear disparity: with the trio starting, Arsenal average 1.47 open‑play xG, versus just 1.11 when one or more are missing.
Getting the trio together is the biggest logistical challenge, but it is not a guaranteed cure. Saka’s scoring rate has dipped to two goals in his last 14 league outings, while ØØgaard has found the net only once in his previous 21 appearances.
The supporting cast must also step up – Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 games. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, currently leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, many of which have come against lower‑half opponents. His contribution could prove vital in the remaining fixtures against teams battling relegation.
Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, “When you’re winning you start thinking, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know it’ll be tight.” That mindset, combined with the tools at their disposal, suggests Arsenal still have a realistic chance of edging City. While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s offensive woes continue to trouble Eddie Howe.
The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their attacking rebuild has yet to pay dividends. New signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances combined.
Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 striker William Osula a more prominent role. Osula has shown promise, scoring in back‑to‑back games, but Alexander Isak’s 20‑goal seasons for Newcastle have not been replicated. Their current top scorer, Bruno Guimarães, has managed only nine league goals.
Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the Saturday Night Football slot.
The following Monday, Manchester United faces Brentford. In last week’s column, Wright correctly identified Arsenal’s technical shortcomings and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City at the Etihad – a point that now appears vindicated.
Stay tuned for more insights, and good luck in the Super 6 draw for a chance at £250 k!