Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics with opinion to illuminate the Premier League's most pressing narratives. This week’s focus centres on three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player to watch in the upcoming weekend fixtures.
Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s primary aim in the title race is to secure points rather than chase goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet the fact that the Gunners and the Citizens are currently separated by only a handful of goals scored adds a tantalising layer of intrigue to the chase for the league crown. Arsenal drew encouragement from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which briefly placed the London club at the summit. While a win remains essential for Arteta’s side, a single point may not suffice if City continues to rack up goals. The stakes were underscored by the fact that a heavier defeat could have widened the gap dramatically.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not merely an offensive task. "It’s about scoring and not conceding – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained.
For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can elevate their attacking output to match City’s relentless firepower. Arsenal’s numbers suggest they are not far off. They have scored just three fewer goals than Manchester City, a gap narrowed by an exceptional set‑piece record.
The Gunners lead the league with 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This proficiency has been a crucial factor in keeping the goal tally close. However, Arsenal’s recent set‑piece form has dipped, with only one set‑piece goal in four league matches since the double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March.
Re‑establishing that threat will be vital as the season reaches its climax. Beyond dead‑ball situations, the bigger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
In the recent Etihad clash, Arsenal posted a higher expected‑goals (xG) total from open play than City – 1.32 versus 0.98 – indicating that the Gunners are generating quality chances even if they did not convert them into a win. Kai Havertz, playing as the makeshift No 9, was instrumental in that performance. He held up the ball, linked play, and created space for teammates, while also threatening the City box.
Although he finished with a single goal, his five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his impact. Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator on the day, providing more chances than any other player. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, elevated Arsenal’s technical level in attack, suggesting that a balanced midfield can unlock the forward line.
Maintaining the fitness of key attackers – Havertz, Ødegaard, and Bukayo Saka – will be paramount for the final five fixtures. Arteta has hinted that Saka is on track to return from injury for the Saturday showdown with Newcastle, which would restore a potent trio that has not started together since the 5‑1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024. Historical data reinforces the importance of that trio.
When all three are on the pitch, Arsenal’s expected goals from open play rise to 1.47 per game, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are absent. Their combined presence also stabilises set‑piece output, which remains consistent at 0.45 xG per game regardless of lineup. Nevertheless, simply fielding Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka is no guarantee of goals.
Saka’s recent return has yielded only two strikes in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has managed a solitary goal in his last 21 outings. Supporting players must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 games.
Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads the Gunners with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition. His knack for exploiting weaker defences could prove useful in the remaining matches against teams battling relegation. Arsenal’s squad appears aware of the goal‑difference imperative.
Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you start thinking, ‘let’s go out and score more’, because we know the title race will be tight." That mindset, combined with the statistical edge in set‑piece situations, suggests the Gunners possess the tools to outscore City if they can convert their chances. While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle’s offensive woes persist for Eddie Howe. The Magpies are averaging their lowest goals‑per‑game ratio since the 2021/22 season, sitting at 1.41. Their recent form – a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth and a 14th‑place league standing – reflects a struggling rebuild.
The hefty £124 million investment in forwards Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa has yet to pay dividends, as the pair have failed to score in 24 league games combined. Howe has turned to Danish youngster William Osula as a potential solution, and Osula’s recent back‑to‑back goals hint at promise.
Yet the club’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, underscoring the need for a more prolific striker. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United in the upcoming Monday Night Football fixture.
Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle clash in Saturday Night Football, both matches broadcast on Sky Sports. In summary, Arsenal’s technical improvements and set‑piece superiority give them a realistic chance to outgun Manchester City in the final stretch. The key will be keeping their attacking trio fit, converting the higher expected‑goals into actual goals, and maintaining the defensive solidity that has kept them in contention.
If they can harness these elements, the Gunners may yet claim the title in a thrilling, goal‑rich finale.