Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven yet opinion‑flavoured column where Nick Wright dissects the Premier League’s most pressing narratives. This week’s focus revolves around three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outshooting Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Pep Guardiola has been crystal clear that Manchester City’s primary objective in the title race is to collect points, not to chase goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," the City manager told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the Gunners and the Citizens separated by a razor‑thin margin in goals scored, the differential could become a decisive factor if the race tightens. Arsenal drew a sliver of optimism from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, a result that temporarily lifted City back to the summit. While Arteta’s men must still win their remaining fixtures, a single point haul may not suffice if City continues to rack up points while also nudging their goal tally upward. In this context, the Etihad clash took on added significance.
Guardiola reminded everyone that boosting goal difference isn’t merely an offensive task. "You have to score and you have to keep a clean sheet – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained. For Arsenal, the question is whether they can sharpen their attacking edge enough to tip the scales. ### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal trail City by just three goals, a gap that looks surmountable.
A major factor in narrowing that gap has been Arsenal’s prowess from set‑pieces. The Gunners have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, recent form shows a dip: only one set‑piece goal in the last four league games after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. The bigger challenge lies in open‑play creativity.
Despite losing 2‑1 at the Etihad, Arsenal produced a higher expected‑goals (xG) tally from open play – 1.32 compared with City’s 0.98. This suggests that, shot for shot, the Gunners are crafting more quality chances.
Kai Havertz, deployed as the makeshift No 9, was instrumental in that performance. He held up the ball, linked midfield and attack, and forced City’s defence to stay on high alert. Although he finished with a single goal, his five attempts marked the highest shot count by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season.
Havertz’s presence appears to rejuvenate Arsenal’s forward thrust, even if his conversion rate still leaves room for improvement. Martin Ødegaard topped the chance‑creation chart, orchestrating play and providing the service that allowed Havertz to thrive. The inclusion of Ødegaard alongside Eberechi Eze has elevated the technical quality of Arsenal’s attack, creating more fluid combinations and sharper passing sequences. Injuries remain a concern.
Bukayo Saka, who is on the recovery trail, is expected to join Havertz and Ødegaard in the starting XI for the upcoming clash with Newcastle. Remarkably, the trio has not started a league match together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a period of roughly 18 months. Their combined influence is evident in the statistics: Arsenal’s expected goals from open play rise from 1.11 to 1.47 when all three are on the pitch, underscoring their collective importance. Nevertheless, simply fielding these three does not guarantee goals.
Saka has managed just two strikes in his last 14 league outings, while Ødegaard has scored once in his previous 21 appearances. Supporting attackers such as Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, and Leandro Trossard have also struggled to find the net consistently, contributing only three league goals between them this season.
Veteran forward Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition – a reminder that his output may be more situational than transformational. Gabriel Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports hint at a growing awareness within the squad about the importance of goal difference. "When you’re winning you start thinking, ‘let’s go out and score more’, because we know the title race will be tight," he said, reflecting a shift in mindset that could translate into more aggressive attacking intent in the final stretch.
### Newcastle’s Struggles on the Front Foot While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild under Eddie Howe remains problematic. The Magpies have slumped to their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th. Their recent third‑straight defeat to Bournemouth left them languishing in 14th place.
The summer signings – Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa – have collectively failed to score in 24 league matches, prompting Howe to consider giving Denmark U‑21 prospect William Osula a more prominent role as the primary striker. Osula has shown promise, netting in consecutive games, yet the club’s overall goal output is still anchored by Bruno Guimarães, who leads with nine league goals. ### Looking Ahead The upcoming Saturday Night Football showdown between Arsenal and Newcastle will be a litmus test for both sides.
Arsenal must harness the creative spark of Havertz, Ødegaard, and a fit Saka while ensuring their supporting cast contributes more goals. Newcastle, on the other hand, needs to find a reliable source of firepower to climb out of the relegation zone. For fans, the match will be broadcast on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event, with kickoff slated for 5:30 pm.
Meanwhile, Manchester City will face Brentford on Monday Night Football, a game that could further widen the goal‑difference gap if the Citizens continue to score freely. In summary, Arsenal possess the tools – a potent set‑piece arsenal, improved open‑play xG, and a trio of technically gifted forwards – to potentially outgun Manchester City in a title‑deciding shootout.
Their success will hinge on converting chances, maintaining fitness, and keeping a collective focus on both winning matches and adding to their goal tally. The final five fixtures will decide whether those ambitions become reality or remain just another footnote in the season’s narrative.