Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright breaks down the Premier League's most compelling narratives. This week’s focus centers on three key storylines: - Can Arsenal outshoot Manchester City? - Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era - A player to keep an eye on this weekend Pep Guardiola has been crystal clear: Manchester City’s priority is to collect points, not chase goal difference, in their title duel with Arsenal. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs separated only by the number of goals they have scored, the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close. Arsenal received a morale boost from City’s narrow 1‑0 win over Burnley, which temporarily lifted the Citizens to the top of the table. However, the Gunners must still win their remaining fixtures, and a single victory may not be sufficient if the goal‑difference gap widens.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not merely an offensive task. "You have to score and you have to concede less – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can sharpen their attacking edge. ### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City, a gap that feels manageable, especially when you consider the Gunners’ superior set‑piece record.
They have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This advantage stems from precise delivery and aerial prowess, and it will be crucial for Arsenal to keep that source of goals flowing. After a recent dip – just one set‑piece goal in four league games – the team will be eager to restore that potency. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play chances.
On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad, generating 1.32 expected goals (xG) from open play compared with City’s 0.98. Although the match ended in a loss, the underlying numbers suggest the Gunners are creating quality chances. ### The Impact of Kai Havertz Kai Havertz’s return to the No 9 role was a turning point. He acted as a focal point, holding up the ball, linking midfield to attack, and constantly threatening the City box.
Despite a missed one‑on‑one opportunity saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and a late header that rattled the crossbar, Havertz’s five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season. His presence alone seemed to lift Arsenal’s overall offensive rhythm. ### Creative Sparks from Odegaard and Eze Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator in the game, delivering more chances than any other player. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, elevated Arsenal’s technical quality.
Keeping these three – Havertz, Ødegaard, and Bukayo Saka – fit for the final stretch is vital. Arteta hinted that Saka could join his injured teammates against Newcastle, providing a potent trio that has not started together since the 5‑1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024.
Historical data underscores their collective importance. When all three are on the pitch, Arsenal averages 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces per game, identical to when they are absent, indicating a steady threat from dead‑ball situations. However, open‑play xG jumps from 1.11 to 1.47 with the trio, highlighting the creative lift they provide.
### Goal‑Scoring Woes Beyond the Stars The supporting cast must also step up. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, while Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 appearances. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which came against bottom‑half opposition – a reminder that his contributions may be more valuable in matches against lower‑ranked teams. Gabriel Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports reveal the squad’s mindset: "When you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals’, because we know it’ll be tight." The desire to add to the tally is evident, but execution remains the hurdle.
### Newcastle’s Parallel Struggle While Arsenal wrestle with attacking consistency, Newcastle faces its own challenges under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. Sitting 14th after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, their attacking overhaul appears ineffective. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa have failed to find the net in 24 league outings combined, prompting Howe to consider giving Denmark U21 prospect William Osula a larger role.
Osula has shown promise with back‑to‑back goals, yet the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine strikes, far below the standards expected from a club aiming for European spots. ### Looking Ahead The upcoming Saturday Night Football clash between Arsenal and Newcastle will be a litmus test for both sides. Arsenal must harness the creativity of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka while extracting goals from their set‑piece arsenal.
Newcastle, on the other hand, needs to rediscover the firepower that justified their summer spending. In summary, the title race may hinge on who can convert chances into goals more efficiently.
City’s focus on points is clear, but Arsenal’s narrow goal deficit, combined with a superior set‑piece record and the potential resurgence of their attacking trio, keeps the contest alive. If the Gunners can sustain open‑play creativity and keep their key forwards fit, they possess the tools to outgun Manchester City and clinch the championship.