Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to highlight the stories that matter across the Premier League. This week’s focus includes three main topics: 1. Can Arsenal out‑shoot Manchester City?
2. Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era 3. A player worth watching this weekend Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City are concentrating on collecting points rather than obsessing over goal difference in their title race against Arsenal. "It’s simply about winning games," the City boss told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the number of goals they have scored, the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close. The 1‑0 victory over Burnley that propelled City back to the top of the table also gave Arsenal a glimmer of hope. Mikel Arteta’s side must win their remaining fixtures, but a win alone may not be sufficient if the goal‑difference gap widens.
A heavier defeat would have been far more damaging to their title hopes. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an offensive task. "You have to score and you have to keep a clean sheet – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained. For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can raise the level of their attack when it matters most.
Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals behind City in the scoring column, a gap that looks modest when you consider Arsenal’s superior set‑piece record. The Gunners have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, compared with City’s eight.
That edge has been a crucial factor in keeping the gap narrow. However, Arsenal’s recent set‑piece form has dipped – they have managed just one set‑piece goal in their last four league games after scoring twice from corners in their March win over Chelsea at the Emirates. Arteta will be eager to see the supply line re‑activate in the coming weeks. The more pressing area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
In that respect, Arsenal can take some comfort from the statistics from their recent Etihad clash. They generated 1.32 expected goals (xG) from open play, out‑performing City’s 0.98 xG.
While the match ended in a narrow defeat, the numbers suggest Arsenal are capable of producing quality chances against the league’s best defence. Kai Havertz, playing as the central striker, was a key influence in that performance. He missed a one‑on‑one opportunity that was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed a cross from Leandro Trossard over the bar in stoppage time, after having already equalised earlier. Havertz’s role as a focal point – holding up the ball, linking play, and pulling defenders out of position – was evident, even if he finished with just one goal.
His five shots represented the highest total for any opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his impact. This was only Havertz’s second Premier League start in the number nine role, and it coincided with the return of another player who has endured an injury‑ridden spell. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, producing more chances than any other player. The decision to start Ødegaard alongside Eberechi Eze rather than replace him has clearly elevated Arsenal’s technical quality in attack.
Keeping these key players fit for the final five league games will be essential. Arteta has indicated that Bukayo Saka, who is on the recovery path, should be available for the upcoming Saturday fixture against Newcastle.
Remarkably, Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not all started together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 triumph over Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly a year and a half. Looking back at Havertz’s arrival from Chelsea at the start of the season, the data reveal a stark contrast in Arsenal’s performance with and without the trio of Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka. The Gunners average exactly 0.45 expected goals from set‑pieces whether those three are on the field or not, indicating a consistent threat from dead‑ball situations.
In open play, however, the numbers diverge: with all three starters, Arsenal average 1.47 xG, but this drops to 1.11 when one or more are absent. Fielding the trio together remains the biggest tactical challenge, but it is not a guaranteed solution. Saka has managed only two goals in his last 14 Premier League outings, while Ødegaard has found the net once in his previous 21 matches. Their supporting cast must also step up.
Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has failed to score in his last 13 appearances. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring chart with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opposition. His contribution could be vital in the remaining fixtures against teams fighting relegation. Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle.
Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning, you still think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know the title race will be tight." The sentiment reflects a collective desire to add goals whenever possible. While Arsenal’s attacking signs are encouraging, Newcastle’s situation remains problematic for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average – 1.41 – since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
They sit 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, and their summer‑spent attacking overhaul has yet to deliver. The high‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have not scored in 24 league appearances combined.
Howe is now leaning on Denmark U21 international William Osula as his preferred striker, and Osula has shown promise by scoring in back‑to‑back games. Nevertheless, Alexander Isak’s 20‑goal haul in each of his last two seasons at Newcastle underscores the club’s unmet expectations.
This season, their top scorer is Bruno Guimarães with nine goals. Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle clash in Saturday Night Football, with Sky Sports providing live coverage.
On Monday Night Football, Manchester United take on Brentford. In summary, Arsenal possess a blend of set‑piece proficiency, emerging open‑play creativity, and a handful of players capable of influencing big games. Their challenge now is to keep the core trio healthy, extract more goals from the supporting cast, and maintain defensive solidity.
If they can manage those elements, they stand a realistic chance of edging Manchester City in the final sprint for the Premier League crown.