Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to highlight the Premier League stories you need to know. This week’s focus is on three key topics: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Pep Guardiola has been clear that Manchester City are concentrating on securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference in their battle with Arsenal. "It all comes down to winning games," the manager told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs level on points and separated only by the number of goals scored, the margin could prove decisive as the season draws to a close. Arsenal drew a small morale boost from City’s 1‑0 win over Burnley, which briefly placed the Citizens at the top of the table.
Mikel Arteta’s side still need to keep winning, but a single victory may not be sufficient if City continue to rack up goals. The stakes were high on Wednesday, and a poorer result could have left Arsenal in a much more precarious position. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference isn’t just about attacking; it also involves defending well.
"It’s about scoring and not conceding, not just one side of the game," he said. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can lift their attacking output to match the defensive solidity City have shown.
Arsenal can point out that they are only three goals behind City in the scoring column – a gap that feels narrow, especially when you consider their superior set‑piece record. The Gunners have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This advantage stems largely from a well‑drilled delivery system that has turned corners and free‑kicks into regular scoring opportunities.
However, that set‑piece edge has started to fade. Since their early‑March double from corners in the win over Chelsea, Arsenal have managed just one set‑piece goal in four league matches. Reviving that source of firepower will be crucial in the final stretch of the campaign.
The bigger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad, generating more expected goals (xG) from open play than City – 1.32 compared with City’s 0.98. Although the match ended in a loss, the underlying numbers suggest that the Gunners can threaten the opposition in the 90 minutes. Kai Havertz, deployed as the No 9, was central to Arsenal’s attacking display.
He missed a clear one‑on‑one chance saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed an agonising effort over the bar from a Leandro Trossard cross in stoppage time, after having already scored the equaliser. Despite the miss, Havertz’s role as a target man was evident: he held up the ball, linked play, and consistently pulled City’s defenders out of shape. His five shots were the most by any visiting striker at the Etihad this season. Havertz’s start was only his second as a Premier League centre‑forward, and it coincided with the return of another player who has endured a season marred by injury.
Martin Ørgaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, providing more chances than anyone else. When Ørgaard and Eberechi Eze play together, Arsenal’s technical level in attack noticeably rises. Maintaining the fitness of these key figures, along with Bukayo Saka, will be vital for the remaining five league games.
Arteta has indicated that Saka is poised to rejoin the starting XI against Newcastle on Saturday. Remarkably, Havertz, Ørgaard and Saka have not all started together since the 5‑1 triumph over Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly eighteen months. Looking back at Havertz’s arrival from Chelsea, the data underline how much Arsenal benefit when all three operate simultaneously. The team’s set‑piece expected goals remain steady at 0.45 per game regardless of whether they start, but open‑play xG jumps from 1.11 to 1.47 when Havertz, Ørgaard and Saka are all on the field.
This illustrates their collective impact on creativity. Nonetheless, simply fielding the trio does not guarantee goals. Saka has managed just two strikes in his last 14 league outings, while Ørgaard has scored once in his previous 21 appearances. Their supporting cast must also step up.
Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for only three Premier League goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has failed to find the net in his last 13 games. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, most of which have come against lower‑half opponents. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could prove useful in the final fixtures.
The importance of goal difference is evident in the comments of Gabriel Martinelli, who told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know it’ll be tight." Arsenal appear to recognise that every additional goal could be the difference between lifting the trophy and finishing second. While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s situation remains a headache for Eddie Howe. The Magpies are averaging their lowest goals‑per‑game rate – 1.41 – since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
Currently 14th in the table after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s high‑profile signings, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, have failed to score in a combined 24 league matches. Howe is now leaning on young Danish striker William Osula, who has begun to deliver goals in back‑to‑back games. Despite the heavy spending, Newcastle’s top scorer is Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, while former striker Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in successive seasons, has not replicated that form. The club’s attacking rebuild is still searching for its rhythm.
Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a bright moment from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United in Monday Night Football. Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, and Arsenal will clash with Newcastle in the Saturday Night Football slot, with Sky Sports providing live coverage from 5 p.m. onward. On Monday, Manchester United take on Brentford.
In summary, Arsenal have the tools – a potent set‑piece unit, a growing open‑play threat when key players are fit, and a manager willing to adapt – to outgun Manchester City in the final title showdown. Their ability to keep their stars healthy and to extract goals from every avenue will determine whether they can clinch the crown or settle for a runner‑up finish.