Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics with insight to illuminate the Premier League’s most compelling narratives. This week’s focus covers three key topics: the prospect of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑forward approach after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend. Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race against Arsenal is simply to collect points, not to chase goal difference. "It’s all about winning games," the City manager told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the number of goals they have netted, the margin could prove decisive if the race tightens. Arsenal drew some encouragement from City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley, a result that temporarily lifted the Citizens to the top of the table. Mikel Arteta’s side still must win their remaining fixtures, but a solitary win may not suffice if the gap in goals scored widens.
A worse outcome in the upcoming clash would have left the Gunners in an even more precarious position. Guardiola reminded everyone that boosting goal difference is not merely an offensive task.
"It’s about scoring and not conceding, not just one side of the equation," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question remains whether they can sharpen their attacking edge. Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City in the tally, a gap that is far from insurmountable. A significant factor is Arsenal’s superior set‑piece record: they have converted 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals this season, the highest in the league, compared with City’s eight.
After a brief lull – just one set‑piece goal in four league games following a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March – Arteta will be eager to see that supply line re‑ignite. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad despite the 2‑2 draw. Their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98.
Kai Havertz, deployed as the central striker, was instrumental. He missed a prime one‑on‑one chance saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later saw a well‑timed cross from Leandro Trossard sail over the bar in stoppage time after already scoring the equaliser. Havertz’s movement as a focal point – holding up the ball, linking play, and threatening the City box – was a clear upgrade, even if he could have added another goal.
Havertz recorded five shots, the highest total by any visiting striker at the Etihad this season, and it was only his second Premier League start up front. His presence coincided with the return of another striker who has endured a season marred by injuries. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator in the match, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze elevated Arsenal’s technical quality in attack.
Looking ahead, Arteta will need to keep these key players fit for the final five league games, alongside Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from injury for the Saturday clash with Newcastle. Remarkably, Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League match together since the 5‑1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a period of almost 18 months.
When Arsenal field all three, their set‑piece expected goals remain steady at 0.45 per game, regardless of who is on the pitch. However, open‑play creativity suffers when any of the trio is missing: the team averages 1.47 xG with all three starting, dropping to 1.11 when one or more are absent. This underscores the importance of keeping the trio together, though it is not a guaranteed solution. Saka has managed just two goals in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has scored only once in his previous 21 outings.
Both will need to rediscover their scoring touch. The supporting cast must also step up.
Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 matches. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition – a sign that he could be pivotal in upcoming fixtures against lower‑ranked teams.
Arsenal’s ambition to improve goal difference is evident in the players’ comments. Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you go to a game you want to win, but once you’re ahead you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know it’ll be tight." This mindset suggests the squad is aware that every additional goal could be crucial.
While Arsenal’s attacking signs are encouraging, Newcastle’s situation remains a headache for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slipped to their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th.
After a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, they sit 14th in the table and face a daunting trip to the Emirates. Newcastle’s summer overhaul has yet to pay off. The £124 million pair of signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa have failed to score in 24 league appearances combined.
Howe is now leaning on Denmark U21 prospect William Osula as his preferred No 9, a move that has shown promise with back‑to‑back goals. Yet, Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in consecutive seasons, has not replicated that form, and the club’s top scorer this season is Bruno Guimarães with nine goals. Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham was unremarkable, though Mikkel Damsgaard produced moments that could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the Saturday Night Football showdown, with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
On Monday, Manchester United take on Brentford, with kickoff at 8 p.m. In summary, Arsenal possess a solid set‑piece foundation and a budding open‑play threat when their key attackers are all available.
The challenge lies in maintaining fitness, rediscovering goal‑scoring form, and ensuring that the supporting players contribute consistently. If they can sustain these improvements, they have a realistic chance of outscoring Manchester City and clinching the title in what promises to be a thrilling climax to the season.