In his most recent column for Sky Sports, Paul Merson argues that the Premier League championship could ultimately be decided on goal difference, especially after Manchester City’s narrow 1-0 win over Burnley. Guardiola’s side remain atop the league table, but they are now level with Arsenal on both points and goal difference following a lacklustre performance at Turf Moor on Wednesday.
City have already found the back of the net 66 times this campaign – three more than Arsenal – which currently places them ahead on the goals‑scored tiebreaker. Merson contends that City needed a dominant display at Burnley to seize control of the title chase, and he uses the match as a springboard to examine the broader context of the race. He begins by noting that Arsenal’s display at the Etihad was solid, yet they dropped points in a fixture they could not afford to lose.
"You don’t have to be playing brilliantly to lose matches," he writes, adding that Manchester City’s sudden surge to the summit feels unsettling for their rivals. "From nowhere, City are top of the league – it’s scary." Nevertheless, Merson points out that Arsenal have two games in hand before City do, and those fixtures represent a golden opportunity to regain a six‑point cushion. He stresses the importance of securing victories against Newcastle United and Fulham, describing those matches as "must‑win" encounters that could shift the pressure back onto the Citizens.
In his view, the upcoming schedule heavily favours City: they face Everton and Brentford – both clubs battling for European places – followed by what Merson calls "absolutely gimmes" against Crystal Palace at home and Bournemouth. He even suggests that the final league fixture against Aston Villa will likely be a formality, as Villa are expected to have already clinched Champions League qualification and will be focusing on the Europa League final scheduled just days earlier. Merson’s analysis emphasizes that City’s modest 1‑0 victory over Burnley does not guarantee a runaway lead. He reminds readers that City did not dismantle Burnley with a four‑ or five‑goal haul, and he doubts they will replicate such a dominant performance against Everton in their next outing.
Both Everton and Brentford are recognised for their defensive solidity, and Bournemouth has also shown a strong back line. Consequently, the title race could indeed hinge on goal difference, a scenario that keeps Arsenal very much in contention.
The columnist also reflects on specific moments that left Arsenal feeling unlucky at the Etihad. Kai Havertz slipped in a promising position during the second half, missing a chance to score.
Eberechi Eze struck the post with a powerful effort that rolled along the goal line – a goal that, on a different day or in a different context, would have been enough to tip the balance. Gabriel Martinelli’s header, which seemed destined to become a penalty after potentially contacting Nico O'Reilly’s arm, instead glanced off the defender’s side and ricocheted onto the post, denying Arsenal a clear scoring opportunity. Merson does not shy away from criticism either.
He notes that Martinelli failed to track O'Reilly’s run, allowing the Manchester City forward to find the net. He also defends Marc Guehi, arguing that the defender was not at fault for the conceded goal; rather, he was positioned on the edge of his own box and was simply overwhelmed when the ball was played through. "When you’re at a club like Arsenal, you’re told to do things once and then you’re expected to remember them forever," Merson writes, highlighting the high expectations placed on the squad.
Looking ahead, the columnist stresses that Arsenal must tighten up defensively and be more decisive in front of goal if they hope to stay ahead of City. He urges the Gunners to capitalize on their two games in hand, to press their advantage against Newcastle and Fulham, and to avoid the kind of missed opportunities that have plagued them at the Etihad. By doing so, Arsenal can re‑establish a comfortable lead and force Manchester City to chase them, rather than the other way around. In summary, Paul Merson’s column paints a picture of a title race that remains wide open.
While City hold a slight edge in goals scored, Arsenal’s upcoming fixtures provide a realistic pathway to regain a points cushion. The battle may ultimately be decided by goal difference, making every missed chance and defensive lapse crucial. Arsenal’s supporters will be hoping their team can convert the potential highlighted by Merson into tangible results, ensuring that the Gunners remain genuine contenders for the Premier League crown as the season reaches its climax.