Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright breaks down the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s focus: 🔴 Can Arsenal out‑shoot Manchester City? ◼️ Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after Isak’s departure 🔍 Player to watch this weekend Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that his side is chasing points, not goal‑difference, in the battle for the crown against Arsenal.
"It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports. Yet, with the two clubs separated only by the number of goals they have scored, the margin could become a decisive factor.
For Arsenal, the 1‑0 victory over Burnley that temporarily lifted City to the summit offered a glimmer of hope. Mikel Arteta’s men must win their remaining fixtures, but winning alone may not be sufficient if they fall short on the scoring front. A heavier defeat would have left them in an even more precarious position.
Guardiola reminded everyone that boosting goal difference isn’t just an offensive task. "It’s about scoring and, equally, not conceding – it’s a two‑sided effort," he explained. For Arsenal, the real question is whether they can sharpen their attacking edge.
### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City, a gap that feels modest given the Gunners’ exceptional set‑piece record. They have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. However, their recent form from dead‑ball situations has dipped, with just one set‑piece goal in the last four league games after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March.
The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play production. Encouragingly, Arsenal generated more expected goals (xG) from open play than City in the recent Etihad clash – 1.32 versus 0.98. This suggests they are creating quality chances even if the final tally didn’t reflect it. ### The Havertz Factor Kai Havertz, back as Arsenal’s No 9, was instrumental in that performance.
He held up the ball, linked play, and constantly threatened the City box, though he finished with a single goal. His five shots represented the highest total by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season, highlighting his influence despite only his second Premier League start up front. Havertz’s presence also seemed to lift his teammates.
Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze raised Arsenal’s technical level. Arteta hopes to keep Havertz, Ødegaard, and Bukayo Saka fit for the final five league matches. Saka, according to the manager, is poised to return from injury for the Saturday showdown with Newcastle.
The trio of Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka has not started together since the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a gap of nearly 18 months. Historical data shows Arsenal’s attacking output spikes when all three are on the field.
Their set‑piece expected goals remain steady at 0.45 per game regardless of personnel, but open‑play xG jumps from 1.11 to 1.47 when the trio starts together. ### Supporting Cast and Goal‑Difference Concerns Even with the trio, Arsenal need contributions from the rest of the squad. Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, while Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 appearances. Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limited minutes, leads the team with 12 league goals, nine of which came against lower‑half opponents – a sign he could be pivotal in upcoming matches against weaker sides.
Gabriel Martinelli echoed the goal‑difference mindset in a recent interview: "When you’re winning, you still want to push for more goals because we know the title race will be tight." His sentiment captures the growing awareness among Arsenal players that every extra goal could matter. ### Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles While Arsenal grapple with sharpening their attack, Newcastle face a different dilemma. Under Eddie Howe, the Magpies have seen their goal average fall to 1.41 per game – the lowest since the 2021/22 season when they finished 11th. Sitting 14th after a third straight defeat to Bournemouth, their attacking overhaul has yet to pay dividends.
The high‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to find the net in 24 league outings combined. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U‑21 prospect William Osula a chance as the primary striker.
Osula has shown promise, scoring in consecutive matches, but the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far below the expectations set by the summer spending. ### Looking Ahead The upcoming Saturday Night Football fixture pits Arsenal against Newcastle at the Emirates. Sky Sports will broadcast the match from 5 pm, with kickoff at 5.30 pm.
A win for Arsenal could tighten the title race, while Newcastle will be desperate for points to climb out of the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Manchester United travel to Brentford for Monday Night Football, and Sunderland face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football – all matches that could indirectly affect the championship equation by influencing the points available to City’s rivals.
In summary, Arsenal possess a solid foundation: a world‑class set‑piece threat, an improving open‑play xG profile, and the potential firepower of Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka when they all feature together. The challenge now is to convert that potential into goals, keep key players healthy, and maintain the intensity required to out‑shoot a Manchester City side that, while emphasizing points, will still be eager to pad their goal difference as the season draws to a close.
If Arsenal can sustain their recent attacking momentum and add a few more goals from both open play and dead‑ball situations, they stand a realistic chance of turning the title race into a high‑scoring showdown rather than a mere points contest.