Get the latest insights from The Radar, a Sky Sports column that combines data and expert opinion to shed light on key Premier League stories. This week, the focus is on whether Arsenal can outscore Manchester City in their title bid, Newcastle's attacking woes, and a player to watch.
Pep Guardiola emphasizes that Manchester City's priority is winning games over improving their goal difference. However, with the title race hanging in the balance, goal difference could play a crucial role.
Arsenal's recent 1-0 loss to Manchester City might seem discouraging, but it also offers some encouragement. Mikel Arteta's side needs to focus on winning, but merely securing victories might not be sufficient.
The key to success lies in enhancing their goal difference, and for Arsenal, this means improving their attack. While Arteta might argue that his team has only scored three fewer goals than Manchester City, the real challenge lies in open play. Arsenal has excelled in set-pieces, with a Premier League-high 21 non-penalty set-piece goals, but they need to elevate their game in open play. The return of Kai Havertz as the team's No.
9 has been a significant factor in their improvement. Havertz has excelled as a focal point, holding the ball up, and linking the play while providing a considerable threat in the Manchester City box.
His performance, combined with the return of Martin Odegaard, has transformed Arsenal's technical level in attack. The club must ensure that these players, along with Bukayo Saka, remain fit for their final five Premier League fixtures. Saka is expected to return from injury in the upcoming game against Newcastle. The trio of Havertz, Odegaard, and Saka has not started a Premier League game together since December 2024, and their collective importance cannot be overstated.
According to the underlying numbers, Arsenal's set-piece threat remains consistent whether these players start or not, but there is a significant gap in open-play creativity. When all three players start, Arsenal averages 1.47 open-play expected goals, compared to 1.11 when one or more of them is absent. Getting them on the pitch together is the biggest challenge, but it is not a guaranteed fix. Other players, such as Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli, need to step up and rediscover their cutting edge.
Newcastle, on the other hand, is struggling with their attack, averaging their fewest goals per game since the 2021/22 campaign. Their problems are not limited to the top-end of the pitch, but last summer's attacking rebuild has not yielded the desired results. As the season enters its final stretch, Arsenal may yet have the tools to come out on top, but they must focus on boosting their goal difference and overcoming their attacking challenges.