Following Wolves' relegation from the Premier League and Burnley's likely demise, the question on everyone's mind is which team will accompany them to the lower division. With Leeds and Nottingham Forest now safely eight and five points clear of the drop zone, respectively, it seems the fight for survival has narrowed down to a two-horse race between West Ham and Spurs. The London rivals are separated by a mere two points, with Spurs in 17th place and West Ham in 18th, and the threat of relegation looms large over both teams with only five games left in the season.
West Ham's goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday could be viewed as a missed opportunity, as a win would have given them some breathing room. Instead, the situation remains precarious.
West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo acknowledged the intensity of the situation, stating, 'It's going to be a fight until the end.' His counterpart, Roberto De Zerbi, expressed optimism about Spurs' chances, suggesting they could win all their remaining games after their draw with Brighton. However, Spurs' winless run in the Premier League now stands at 15 games, more than double the length of any other team's streak. Jamie Carragher praised De Zerbi's impact on Spurs' performances but noted that ending their winless run won't be easy, even against relegated Wolves.
In contrast, West Ham have turned their season around under Nuno, losing only one of their last five Premier League games. The Hammers have the sixth-best record in the division since January, with five wins and three losses from 12 games, averaging 1.6 points per game. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are on a five-game unbeaten run, their longest of the season, following a 4-1 win over Burnley.
Based on the average league positions of their remaining opponents, Spurs appear to have an easier schedule, but they face daunting trips to Aston Villa and Chelsea. West Ham have the advantage of playing three of their last five games at home but must navigate away games against Brentford and Newcastle, as well as hosting title-chasing Arsenal. Nottingham Forest have the most difficult remaining fixtures, with games against Chelsea and Manchester United. Given the threshold for survival could be 38 points, Forest might be just one win away from safety after moving to 36 points with their win over Burnley.
The return of James Maddison to the Spurs squad after a knee injury provides a boost, but injuries continue to plague the team. In contrast, West Ham have a nearly clean bill of health, with only third-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski injured. According to Opta's predicted table, Spurs are now strong favorites to be relegated, with a 58.3 percent relegation probability, significantly higher than West Ham's 36.9 percent.
Nottingham Forest have a relatively low probability of 4.4 percent, while Leeds are deemed all but safe with a 0.4 percent chance of relegation. Opta's expected points model predicts Spurs will finish on 37 points, two points behind West Ham on 39 points, leaving De Zerbi with a significant challenge to alter their fate.