In his most recent column, Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson argues that the Premier League championship could ultimately be decided on goal difference, especially after Manchester City’s narrow 1‑0 victory over Burnley. Pep Guardiola’s side have reclaimed the top spot in the league, but they are now level with Arsenal on both points and goal difference after failing to convert several chances at Turf Moor on Wednesday. City have already found the back of the net 66 times this campaign – three more than Arsenal – which places them ahead in the goals‑scored tally.
Merson contends that City needed a commanding performance against Burnley to assert dominance in the title race, and he uses the match to illustrate how fine the margins have become. He begins by noting that Arsenal’s display at the Etihad was solid, yet the Gunners dropped points in a fixture they could not afford to lose. "You don’t have to be playing brilliantly to lose games," Merson writes.
"Out of nowhere, Manchester City have slipped back into first place. It’s unsettling." Nevertheless, Merson points out that Arsenal have two games in hand before City’s next fixtures, and those matches could allow the north London side to pull six points clear once more – provided they seize the opportunity.
The two upcoming opponents, Newcastle United and Fulham, represent a realistic chance for Arsenal to rebuild a cushion and re‑impose pressure on the Citizens. "They must win both," Merson stresses, "otherwise the title race will tilt back in City’s favour." Looking ahead at City’s schedule, Merson believes the remaining five games should not pose a major obstacle.
The Citizens face Everton and Brentford – both clubs still battling for European qualification – but the other three fixtures appear relatively straightforward. A home game against Crystal Palace, who may be eyeing a Conference League final, and a trip to Bournemouth are described as "almost guaranteed wins". The final league match against Aston Villa is expected to be a formality, as Villa are likely already assured of Champions League football and will be focusing on the Europa League final scheduled just days before the Premier League’s last round.
Merson emphasizes that City’s win over Burnley was not a rout; they only edged it by a single goal. Consequently, he doubts they will dominate Everton in the same manner.
"Everton are defensively solid, as are Brentford and Bournemouth," he notes, underscoring that City cannot rely on easy margins against well‑organised sides. The column then returns to Arsenal’s recent performance, describing it as unlucky rather than poor. Merson highlights several moments that could have changed the outcome: Kai Havertz slipped when he was in a position to score in the second half, and Eberechi Eze struck the post with a shot that rolled along the goal line – a goal that, on a different day, would have been counted. Additionally, Gabriel Martinelli’s header struck the side of Nico O’Reilly’s arm and then the post, missing a potential penalty opportunity.
Merson also critiques certain individual decisions. He argues that Gabriel Martinelli should have tracked O’Reilly’s run more closely to prevent the decisive Manchester City goal, and he defends defender Marc Guehi, saying the midfielder was not at fault for the defensive lapse.
"Guehi was simply standing on the edge of his own box; the ball was switched off, and when a player is switched off, mistakes happen," Merson explains. He reflects on the culture at Arsenal, suggesting that players are often reminded of tactical instructions only once, and repeated reminders are rare.
This, he implies, can lead to lapses in concentration during crucial moments. In summary, Merson believes the title race is now a battle of fine margins.
With both Arsenal and Manchester City level on points and goal difference, the next few fixtures will be decisive. Arsenal must capitalize on their games in hand, while City will need to maintain consistency against both strong defensive units and weaker opponents. The eventual champion may be determined by which side can score more goals over the remainder of the season, as City already hold a three‑goal advantage in that category. Merson concludes by urging Arsenal supporters to stay optimistic: the Gunners are back in contention, and with a few key victories they can reclaim the top spot.
The race is far from over, and every missed chance, every defensive error, and every goal scored will matter in the final tally. The season’s climax promises excitement, and the ultimate winner could be decided by a single goal difference swing. (Play Super 6 for a chance to win £250k! Enter for free.)