Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with insight to highlight the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s focus centers on a pivotal question: can Arsenal outshoot Manchester City and clinch the championship?
Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s primary aim is to secure points rather than chase goal difference in their race with Arsenal. "It’s simply about winning matches," he told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs currently separated only by the number of goals they have netted, the margin could prove decisive. Arsenal drew encouragement from City’s narrow 1-0 victory over Burnley, a result that temporarily lifted City to the top of the table.
While Arteta’s side must also keep winning, a single victory may not be sufficient if the goal gap widens. The recent fixture could have been far more damaging for the Gunners, so the narrow loss still leaves room for optimism. Guardiola reminded everyone that boosting goal difference is not purely an offensive task.
"It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he explained. For Arsenal, the bigger concern lies in sharpening their attacking output. ### Arsenal’s Goal‑Scoring Landscape Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City—a gap that is modest, especially given the Gunners’ superior set‑piece record.
Arsenal have already amassed a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This advantage stems from a well‑drilled delivery system that has consistently turned corners and free‑kicks into scoring chances.
However, the recent run has shown a dip in set‑piece productivity: only one set‑piece goal in the last four league games, after a pair of corner strikes in the March win over Chelsea. Restoring that threat will be crucial as the season enters its final stretch. The larger area for improvement remains open‑play creativity.
In the Etihad clash, Arsenal produced a higher total of open‑play expected goals (xG) than City – 1.32 versus 0.98 – indicating that the Gunners can generate quality chances even against the league’s best defensive unit. ### The Impact of Kai Havertz Kai Havertz’s return to the Arsenal front line was a catalyst for that improved performance.
Although he missed a golden‑chance saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed over from Leandro Trossard’s cross, his overall involvement was significant. Havertz acted as a true number nine, holding up the ball, linking midfield to attack, and constantly threatening the City penalty area. His five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season. This was only Havertz’s second Premier League start as a striker this campaign, yet his presence coincided with the return of another key player recovering from injury.
Their combined influence has already begun to reshape Arsenal’s attacking dynamics. ### Creative Core: Odegaard, Saka and Havertz Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator in the City game, delivering more chances than any other player. When paired with Eberechi Eze rather than replacing him, Ødegaard helped lift Arsenal’s technical level. Arteta is keen to keep Ødegaard, Havertz and Bukayo Saka fit for the remaining five league fixtures.
Saka, according to the manager, should be ready to join his teammates after missing the previous match through injury. It is worth noting that the trio has not started together in a Premier League fixture since Arsenal’s 5-1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a period of nearly 18 months. Historical data shows that Arsenal’s goal‑scoring rate is markedly higher when all three are on the pitch. With Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka starting, Arsenal average 1.47 open‑play xG per game, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are absent.
Nevertheless, the trio’s individual goal returns have been modest. Saka has found the net only twice in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has scored once in his last 21. The supporting cast must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has not scored in his last 13 outings.
Viktor Gyökeres, despite his occasional limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, many of which have come against lower‑table opposition. His contribution could be decisive in the remaining matches against teams fighting relegation.
### The Mentality of Chasing Goal Difference Arsenal’s players appear aware of the importance of goal difference. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you go into a game you just want to win, but once you’re ahead you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know the title race will be tight." This mindset aligns with the club’s need to maximize every scoring opportunity. ### The Newcastle Contrast While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle United continues to struggle under Eddie Howe. The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th.
Currently 14th in the table after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s attacking rebuild has yet to deliver. High‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, together costing £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances.
Howe is now leaning on young Danish U21 international William Osula as his preferred striker, a move that has already yielded back‑to‑back goals. Yet, despite the investment, Newcastle’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with just nine league goals. ### Other Premier League Highlights Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United in the upcoming Monday Night Football fixture.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle clash in Saturday Night Football, with coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League. Manchester United face Brentford on Monday Night Football, with kickoff at 8 pm and pre‑match coverage from 6.30 pm.
### Looking Ahead The previous week’s column correctly identified Arsenal’s technical shortcomings and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City at the Etihad. As the season draws to a close, the Gunners must maintain defensive solidity while finding ways to increase their goal output, especially in open play.
If they can keep their key attackers healthy and firing, and if their set‑piece proficiency remains consistent, Arsenal have a realistic chance of overtaking Manchester City on goal difference and securing the Premier League crown. The final stretch promises high‑stakes football, with every goal potentially shaping the title outcome. Arsenal’s fans will be hoping that the combination of tactical adjustments, player form and a relentless attacking mindset will deliver the decisive edge needed to triumph in this thrilling title race.