Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven column where Nick Wright mixes statistics with opinion to highlight the Premier League stories that matter. This week’s focus is on three key topics: whether Arsenal can out‑shoot Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
Pep Guardiola has been clear that Manchester City are concentrating on securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference in their title duel with Arsenal. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports. Yet the two clubs sit level on points and are separated only by goals scored, so the margin could prove decisive in the final stretch of the season.
Arsenal took heart from Manchester City’s 1-0 win at Burnley, which temporarily lifted the Citizens to the top of the table. Arteta’s side knows that a victory is essential, but a single win may not be enough to close the gap.
A worse result would have left them in an even more precarious position. Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not just an attacking issue. "You have to score and you have to keep a clean sheet – it’s a two‑way street," he explained. For Arsenal, the bigger question is whether they can raise their attacking output to match the demands of a title race.
Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City, a gap that looks narrow when you consider Arsenal’s superior set‑piece record. The Gunners have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, compared with City’s eight. This advantage stems from well‑rehearsed routines and the aerial prowess of players like Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka. However, Arsenal’s set‑piece production has dipped recently, with just one set‑piece goal in their last four league games after a double from corners in the March win over Chelsea.
Restoring that source of firepower will be vital as the season reaches its climax. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. Encouragingly, Arsenal generated more expected goals (xG) from open play than City in the Etihad clash – 1.32 to 0.98.
That statistic suggests the Gunners are creating quality chances, even if they haven’t always finished them. Kai Havertz, playing as the makeshift No 9, was central to Arsenal’s attacking resurgence. He held up the ball, linked play, and posed a constant threat inside City’s box. Although he only scored once, his movement forced several saves, including a one‑on‑one stop by Gianluigi Donnarumma and a late header that clanged over the bar from a Leandro Trossard cross.
Havertz’s five shots were the highest by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his influence. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, orchestrating the majority of Arsenal’s chances. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, elevated the team’s technical level. Arteta will be eager to keep Ødegaard, Havertz, and Saka fit for the remaining five league fixtures, especially as Saka is expected to return from injury for the Saturday showdown with Newcastle.
It is worth noting that Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League match together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a period of almost 18 months. When all three are on the field, Arsenal’s open‑play expected goals rise to 1.47 per game, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are missing. This stark contrast highlights their collective importance. Nevertheless, fielding the trio does not guarantee goals.
Saka has managed only two strikes in his last 14 league appearances, while Ødegaard has scored once in his previous 21 outings. The supporting cast must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to find the net in his last 13 games.
Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which came against bottom‑half opposition. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could prove useful in the final run‑in.
Arsenal’s set‑piece threat remains steady regardless of personnel, averaging 0.45 expected goals from dead‑ball situations per match whether Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka start or not. The real gap lies in open‑play creativity, which spikes when the three are together. Gabriel Martinelli hinted that goal difference is on the players’ minds after a recent interview.
"When you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know the title race will be tight," he said. The Gunners appear aware that a few extra goals could swing the championship in their favour.
While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s situation remains a headache for Eddie Howe. The Magpies are averaging their lowest goals‑per‑game tally (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th.
Currently 14th in the table after a third consecutive defeat to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s high‑profile signings – Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, purchased for a combined £124 million – have failed to deliver, combining for zero goals in 24 league matches. Howe may turn to young Danish prospect William Osula as his primary striker, hoping his recent scoring streak can spark the attack.
Meanwhile, Alexander Isak, who previously hit 20 goals in consecutive seasons, has yet to replicate that form, and the team’s top scorer is midfielder Bruno Guimarães with nine goals. Elsewhere in the league, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a bright moment from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, and Arsenal will meet Newcastle in the Saturday Night Football fixture, with coverage beginning at 5 pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
Last week’s column correctly identified Arsenal’s technical shortcomings and argued for Havertz’s inclusion against City at the Etihad. As the title race tightens, the Gunners must blend set‑piece efficiency with open‑play firepower, keep key players healthy, and convert the chances they are already creating. If they can do that, an attacking shoot‑out with Manchester City could end in Arsenal’s favour, and the Premier League crown might finally return to North London.