Wolves have already dropped out of the Premier League and Burnley appear destined to join them, but the real question now is which club will accompany them to the Championship. With Leeds United sitting eight points clear of the relegation zone and Nottingham Forest five points ahead, the race for survival has essentially narrowed to a duel between the two London sides, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
The gap between the Hammers and the Spurs is razor‑thin – just two points separate 17th‑placed West Ham from 18th‑placed Tottenham – and with only five matches left in the campaign the danger of relegation looms larger than ever for both clubs. Could West Ham look back on their goalless draw with Crystal Palace on Monday as a missed chance to pull away?
A win would have left Tottenham further adrift, yet the result left the table in a delicate balance. "It’s going to be a fight until the end," West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo told Sky Sports, trying to keep the atmosphere positive.
His counterpart, Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi, echoed that optimism, insisting his side can win their final five games after a hard‑fought draw with Brighton. On Monday Night Football, former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher praised the improvement Tottenham have shown in De Zerbi’s two games in charge.
"There’s no doubt De Zerbi has had an impact on the performances. They played really well at the weekend and should have taken more than one point," he said. Despite that encouragement, the draw with Brighton extended Tottenham’s Premier League winless streak to 15 matches – more than double the next‑longest run, which belongs to 19th‑placed Burnley with seven games. Breaking that barren spell will be a tall order, even against a relegated Wolves side on Saturday, according to Carragher: "They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, it’s unbelievable.
I can’t see them losing the game and they could nick it, of course they could, but I’ve seen other teams go there and find it difficult at Wolves with the way they set up." While De Zerbi is still trying to build momentum from a standing start, Nuno has already managed to turn West Ham’s fortunes around. The Hammers have lost only one of their last five league fixtures, and the revival can be traced back to a dramatic January win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, when Callum Wilson struck in the 93rd minute to secure a 2‑1 victory.
Since that moment West Ham have posted the sixth‑best record in the division, amassing five wins and three defeats from 12 games – an average of 1.6 points per game, up sharply from the 0.7 they managed earlier in the season. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have enjoyed a five‑game unbeaten run – their longest of the campaign – after a 4‑1 demolition of Burnley. When the remaining fixtures are examined, Tottenham’s opponents have an average league position of 11, compared with West Ham’s 9.4 and Forest’s 8.4, suggesting that on paper Spurs enjoy a slightly softer schedule. Home advantage, however, tilts the balance.
West Ham will play three of their final five matches at the London Stadium, whereas Tottenham have only two games on home soil. The Spurs’ itinerary includes daunting away trips to fourth‑placed Aston Villa and sixth‑placed Chelsea. Tottenham have not won any of their last seven league encounters at Stamford Bridge, have lost their previous five games to Chelsea, and have also faltered in their last four visits to Villa Park.
West Ham’s road is not without its challenges either. Their away fixtures are against Brentford and Newcastle United, and they must also host title‑chasing Arsenal. Everton manager David Moyes will be eager to secure a positive result when his side returns to the London Stadium on Saturday. Forest face the toughest slate based on opponent rankings.
Like Tottenham, they have three away games left, including trips to Chelsea and Manchester United after a Friday visit to Sunderland. Yet, with the safety threshold often cited around 38 points, Forest could be just one win away from safety after moving to 36 points with Sunday’s crucial win over Burnley. "If they could win this game against Sunderland, that would put them on 39 and you would be thinking, ‘they’re not far away now,’" a source suggested.
Tottenham received a morale boost when James Maddison was named in the squad for the first time this season after recovering from a knee injury. Although he remained an unused substitute against Brighton, his presence signalled that De Zerbi may have an extra creative option before the season’s end.
Injuries, however, continue to plague the Spurs. Cristian Romero is out for the run‑in, and Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario and Ben Davies are also unavailable.
Kulusevski, arguably one of Tottenham’s most vital attacking assets alongside Maddison, has not featured at all this campaign. In contrast, West Ham enjoy an almost pristine injury list.
Premier Injuries reports only third‑choice goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański as doubtful, giving Nuno a far broader pool of options than De Zerbi. Opta’s predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations using hundreds of thousands of data points, now rates Tottenham as the clear favourite for relegation. The model assigns Spurs a 58.3% probability of dropping into the Championship, compared with West Ham’s 36.9% and Forest’s modest 4.4%.
Leeds, sitting comfortably in 15th place with 39 points, are virtually safe at 0.4% risk. The expected‑points forecast from Opta predicts Tottenham finishing on 37 points, two shy of West Ham’s projected 39.
De Zerbi therefore faces a daunting task to overturn those odds and keep his side afloat. With just five games to go, every point matters. The Hammers will look to capitalize on their recent form and home advantage, while Tottenham must find a way to break their winless streak and secure results against some of the league’s strongest opponents. Nottingham Forest, though technically outside the immediate two‑way battle, remain within touching distance of safety and could still influence the final outcome.
The final weeks promise high drama, fierce competition, and a fight for survival that will likely be decided by fine margins, individual brilliance, and perhaps a bit of luck. The Premier League’s relegation battle is far from over, and the fate of West Ham, Tottenham, and Forest hangs in the balance as the season draws to its climax.