Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' analytical column where Nick Wright blends statistics and personal insight to illuminate the Premier League's most compelling narratives. This week’s focus revolves around three key topics: the firepower of Arsenal versus Manchester City, Newcastle United's blunt‑forward approach after the arrival of Isak, and a player worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is securing points rather than obsessing over goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," he told Sky Sports. Yet, with the Gunners and the Citizens separated only by the total number of goals scored, the margin could become a decisive factor if the race tightens. Arsenal drew some optimism from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily lifted the champions to the top of the table.
While a win is still essential for Mikel Arteta’s side, a solitary point may not suffice; a larger goal gap could prove costly if the title race goes down to the wire. Guardiola also reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not merely an offensive task.
"It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he explained. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can elevate their attacking output to match the demands of a title chase. Arsenal can already claim they are only three goals behind City in the season’s tally, a relatively narrow deficit. A significant part of that shortfall is mitigated by Arsenal’s superior set‑piece record: they have netted 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, the highest in the league, compared with City’s eight.
This advantage stems from precise delivery and intelligent movement in dead‑ball situations. However, the Gunners have hit a recent dip in set‑piece productivity, managing just one such goal in their last four league matches after a double‑corner strike against Chelsea in early March. Restoring that potency will be crucial as the season draws to a close. The larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity.
On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad despite a 2‑2 draw. Their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98. This suggests that, shot for shot, the Gunners are generating higher‑quality chances.
Kai Havertz, deployed as a makeshift No 9, played a pivotal role in that performance. He linked play, held up the ball, and posed a constant threat inside the City box, even though he only managed a single goal. Havertz recorded five shots – the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season – underscoring his influence as a focal point. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator on the pitch, crafting more opportunities than any other player.
His partnership with Eberechi Eze added a technical spark that lifted Arsenal’s attacking fluidity. Maintaining the fitness of these key figures, along with Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from injury against Newcastle, will be vital for the final stretch.
It is worth noting that Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka have not all started together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024. Historical data shows that the team’s expected goals from open play rise from 1.11 to 1.47 when all three are on the field, highlighting their collective impact. Nevertheless, simply fielding the trio does not guarantee goals.
Saka has found the net only twice in his last 14 league outings, while Ødegaard has scored once in his previous 21 appearances. Supporting players must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for just three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 matches. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite occasional limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring chart with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition. His continued form could be decisive in matches against lower‑ranked teams.
Arsenal’s set‑piece consistency remains impressive regardless of personnel, averaging 0.45 expected goals per game from dead‑ball situations both with and without the Havertz‑Ødegaard‑Saka trio. The real challenge lies in replicating that efficiency in open play. Gabriel Martinelli’s recent comments to Sky Sports reflect the squad’s mindset: "When you’re winning you always think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know the title race will be tight." This ambition aligns with Arteta’s belief that the Gunners possess the tools to finish the season on top.
While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of resurgence, Newcastle United’s offensive woes continue to trouble Eddie Howe. The Magpies have recorded their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 campaign, and they sit 14th after three consecutive defeats, including a loss to Bournemouth. Newcastle’s high‑profile signings, Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, have combined for zero goals in 24 league appearances. Howe is now considering giving Denmark U21 striker William Osula a starting role, after the youngster’s recent brace in consecutive games.
Despite the hefty investment, Newcastle’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, while Alexander Isak, who previously hit the 20‑goal mark in two successive seasons, has yet to replicate that form. Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless stalemate with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could pose a threat to Manchester United on Monday Night Football.
Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, and Arsenal will clash with Newcastle in the Saturday Night Football slot, all broadcast on Sky Sports. In summary, Arsenal’s technical evolution, bolstered by set‑piece prowess and a revitalised open‑play approach, positions them as credible challengers to Manchester City’s title ambitions.
The coming weeks will test the squad’s depth, injury management, and ability to convert chances into decisive goals, ultimately determining whether they can clinch the championship in a thrilling attacking showdown.