Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven column where Nick Wright blends statistics with opinion to illuminate the Premier League's most pressing narratives. This week’s focus revolves around three key storylines: the possibility of Arsenal outscoring Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force approach after the Isak era, and a player worth watching this weekend. Pep Guardiola has repeatedly stressed that Manchester City’s priority in the title race is securing points rather than chasing goal difference. "It’s simply about winning games," the City manager told Sky Sports.
Yet the two clubs sit level on points and are separated only by goals scored, meaning that any swing in scoring could prove decisive in the final stretch. Arsenal’s recent 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which briefly lifted City back to the top of the table, offered the Gunners a glimmer of hope.
Mikel Arteta’s side must, above all, keep winning, but victories alone may not suffice if they fail to close the scoring gap. The Etihad clash could have been far more damaging; a heavier defeat would have widened the gulf in both points and goals.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference is not merely an attacking mission. "It’s about scoring and, just as importantly, not conceding," he told Sky Sports. For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can elevate their offensive output when it matters most.
**Arsenal’s Scoring Landscape** Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City in the total‑goals column – a margin that feels narrow given the season’s context. A significant part of Arsenal’s tally comes from set‑pieces: they have netted a Premier League‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight. This proficiency stems from well‑rehearsed routines and aerial talent, and it will be crucial for Arteta to keep this avenue open, especially after a recent dip where the Gunners managed just one set‑piece goal in four league games.
However, the larger area for improvement lies in open‑play creativity. On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad, generating 1.32 expected goals (xG) from open play compared with City’s 0.98. While the match ended in a loss, the underlying numbers suggest that the Gunners can produce quality chances when the ball is in motion.
**Key Players and Their Impact** Kai Havertz, deployed as the central striker, was instrumental in Arsenal’s attacking resurgence. He held up the ball, linked play, and created space for teammates, while also threatening the City box.
Although he finished with a single goal, his five shots represented the highest tally by an opposition striker at the Etihad this season. This was only Havertz’s second Premier League start as a forward, and his presence coincided with the return of another previously injured player, adding fresh impetus to the attack.
Martin Ødegaard emerged as the most prolific creator, providing more chances than any other player on the pitch. His partnership with Eberechi Eze, rather than a replacement, lifted Arsenal’s technical level.
Arteta also hinted that Bukayo Saka could rejoin the starting eleven after a brief injury layoff, potentially restoring the trio of Havertz, Ødegaard, and Saka that last featured together in the 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024. Historical data underscores the trio’s importance: when all three start, Arsenal average 1.47 open‑play xG per game, versus just 1.11 when one or more are absent. Yet relying solely on their fitness is not a panacea.
Saka has managed only two goals in his last 14 league outings, and Ødegaard has found the net once in his previous 21 appearances. Supporting players must also step up; Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have combined for merely three league goals this season, while Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 matches.
Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition. His knack for finding the net against weaker teams could be vital in the remaining fixtures against lower‑ranked sides. **Mentality and Goal‑Difference Awareness** Arsenal’s squad appears increasingly aware of the goal‑difference factor.
Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you go into a game you just want to win, but once you’re winning you think, ‘let’s go out and score more goals,’ because we know it could be tight." This mindset reflects a growing recognition that every extra goal could be the tie‑breaker at season’s end. **Newcastle’s Parallel Struggles** While Arsenal wrestle with boosting their attack, Newcastle United faces its own offensive woes.
Under Eddie Howe, the Magpies have slipped to an average of 1.41 goals per game – their lowest since the 2021/22 campaign when they finished 11th. Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, Newcastle’s summer‑time overhaul has yet to deliver the expected returns. The high‑profile signings Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa, acquired for a combined £124 million, have failed to score in 24 league appearances between them. Consequently, Howe has begun to favor Denmark U21 international William Osula as his primary striker.
Osula has shown promise, netting in consecutive matches, yet the team’s top scorer remains Bruno Guimarães with nine goals, far short of the 20‑goal mark that Alexander Isak achieved in each of his previous two seasons at the club. **Broader Premier League Landscape** Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a standout performance from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United in the upcoming Monday Night Football fixture. Sunderland will travel to Nottingham Forest for Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle will clash in Saturday Night Football, with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event.
The following Monday, Manchester United faces Brentford at 6.30 p.m. on the same channels. **Looking Ahead** Arteta’s challenge is clear: keep his key attackers fit, maintain set‑piece potency, and unlock greater open‑play creativity.
If Arsenal can sustain their narrow goal‑difference advantage and convert the quality chances they are already generating, they stand a realistic chance of outscoring Manchester City in the final run‑in. The upcoming head‑to‑head with Newcastle will serve as a litmus test for both teams’ offensive ambitions and could set the tone for the decisive weeks that follow.