The final phase of the Scottish Premiership is set to unfold over five matches, three clubs, and a single piece of silverware. After the league splits, the drama intensifies, and this weekend promises to deliver the kind of high‑stakes football that has defined an extraordinary season. On Saturday, Celtic travel to Falkirk for a crucial home fixture that will be broadcast live on Sky Sports. A victory would see them level on points with the league leaders, keeping the title race wide open.
The following day, Rangers face Motherwell, while the current frontrunners, Hearts, travel to Hibernian for the season's last Edinburgh derby, also on Sky Sports. With five games remaining, Hearts sit top of the table, Rangers trail by a single point, and Celtic are two points further back. Although Derek McInnes’s Rangers have dominated much of the campaign, the betting markets now list them as the favourites, and Opta’s sophisticated algorithm concurs. The model predicts that Danny Röhl’s Rangers are most likely to finish first on 16 May, with McInnes’s side slipping to second and Celtic ending in third place.
Historical context adds weight to the current scenario. Rangers have not finished outside the top two since 1995, while Hearts last broke the Old Firm duopoly by finishing second in 2006 and claimed the league crown back in 1960.
Both clubs will be eager to prove the super‑computer and the bookmakers wrong in the remaining fixtures. Three‑way title battles are rare in Scottish football. The most authentic example came in 1983 when Dundee United won their final six games to clinch their only top‑flight trophy, edging Celtic and Aberdeen by a single point. A comparable three‑way scramble occurred in 1998, with Hearts, Celtic and Rangers all in contention.
A late‑season derby loss left Hearts with just two points from five games, Rangers faltered, and Celtic, despite a defeat to Rangers, secured the title by a two‑point margin, ending Rangers’ quest for a historic ten‑in‑a‑row. Earlier, twelve years before that, Hearts were again in the mix with Celtic and Dundee United.
United’s penultimate defeat knocked them out, and Hearts needed only a draw on the final day but lost, allowing Celtic to claim the championship on goal difference after a 5‑0 demolition of St Mirren. These three‑way races have been few and far between, and both Hearts and Rangers supporters hope history does not repeat itself. Celtic fans, meanwhile, may dare to dream of a resurgence.
Celtic’s path to the present title chase has been tumultuous. After Brendan Rodgers’s departure, the club cycled through three managers, with Wilfried Nancy sacked after just 33 days and Martin O’Neill tasked with rescuing a seemingly doomed season. Their recent form at home has been impressive: they have won four of their last five league games at Parkhead. By contrast, Rangers have secured only one victory in their last five away fixtures, and Hearts have managed just a single point from their previous five trips.
Celtic also enjoys a scheduling advantage. They host both rivals in the run‑in, giving them three home games, whereas Hearts and Rangers each have three away matches in their final five fixtures.
Home advantage could prove decisive, especially as the title race tightens. Head‑to‑head results further complicate matters.
Hearts beat Celtic at Celtic Park in December, and Rangers also won their sole visit to Glasgow’s east end earlier in the season. Hearts then turned the tables by defeating Rangers at Tynecastle ahead of their May 4 meeting, which will also be shown live on Sky Sports.
While Hearts and Rangers used a free week to train in sunny Spain, Celtic were at Hampden Park preparing for the Scottish Cup final. McInnes described the Spanish camp as a chance for “calm” before the crucial Edinburgh derby, while Röhl called it a “little bit of time for recovery” and an opportunity to “refresh the mind.” Celtic’s recent 6‑2 thrashing of St Mirren, orchestrated by O’Neill, put them within striking distance of a league‑and‑cup double – a prospect that seemed unlikely only months ago.
However, four of those six goals came in extra‑time, raising questions about whether Celtic can secure a win within 90 minutes against top opposition. Social media is buzzing with fan predictions about a possible title showdown on the final day.
If all three clubs remain in contention on 16 May, Celtic will host Hearts at Parkhead while Rangers travel to Falkirk, the team they defeated 6‑3 in the last pre‑split encounter. Should Hearts be eliminated before the finale, the question arises: will their supporters cheer for either Old Firm side? With 13 titles in the past 14 seasons, Rangers fans will be eager to add another, while a Hearts victory would mark their first league crown in four decades, a triumph that would resonate deeply across the city. In a season defined by unexpected twists, anything is possible.
The final five games will decide whether Opta’s algorithm was right, whether the bookmakers’ odds hold, or whether a historic upset will rewrite the narrative of Scottish football. The stage is set, the stakes are high, and fans across Scotland and beyond are waiting for the climax of a truly remarkable campaign.