Welcome to The Radar, Sky Sports' data‑driven opinion column where Nick Wright breaks down the Premier League stories that matter most. This week’s focus is on three key topics: whether Arsenal can out‑shoot Manchester City, Newcastle’s blunt‑force attack after the Isak era, and a player worth watching this weekend. Pep Guardiola has made it clear that Manchester City are chasing points, not just a superior goal difference, in their battle with Arsenal for the crown. "It’s simply about winning games," the City boss told Sky Sports.
Yet, with the two clubs separated by a razor‑thin margin in goals scored, the differential could become a decisive factor if the title race tightens. Arsenal drew a small morale boost from City’s 1‑0 victory over Burnley, which temporarily put the visitors on top of the table. Mikel Arteta’s side still need to win their remaining fixtures, but a single win may not be sufficient if City continue to pile up points. A worse result for Arsenal would have left them in a far more precarious position.
Guardiola reminded everyone that improving goal difference isn’t just about scoring more; it also involves conceding fewer. "It’s about scoring and not conceding, not just one side of the equation," he said.
For Arsenal, the pressing question is whether they can elevate their attacking output. Arteta can point out that Arsenal are only three goals behind City in the total‑goals column – a gap that feels modest, especially given the Gunners’ impressive set‑piece record. Arsenal have netted a league‑leading 21 non‑penalty set‑piece goals, dwarfing City’s eight.
This advantage stems from precise delivery and aerial prowess, and it could prove vital as the season draws to a close. However, Arsenal’s set‑piece production has dipped recently, with only one set‑piece goal in their last four league games after a pair of corner strikes against Chelsea in early March. Restoring that threat will be essential, but the larger area for improvement lies in open‑play scoring.
On that front, Arsenal showed promise at the Etihad despite losing 2‑1. Their expected goals (xG) from open play stood at 1.32, outpacing City’s 0.98. Kai Havertz, playing as the makeshift No 9, was a catalyst.
He held up the ball, linked play, and created space for teammates, even though he only managed one goal. His five shots were the most by any opposition striker at the Etihad this season, underscoring his influence.
Havertz’s return coincided with the comeback of another injury‑prone Arsenal player, and together they lifted the team’s technical level. Martin Ødegaard was the most prolific creator in the match, and his partnership with Eberechi Eze added a new dimension to Arsenal’s attack. Arteta will be eager to keep these key figures fit for the final five league games, alongside Bukayo Saka, who is expected to return from injury for the upcoming clash with Newcastle.
It is worth noting that Havertz, Ødegaard and Saka have not started a Premier League game together since Arsenal’s 5‑1 demolition of Crystal Palace in December 2024 – a rarity that highlights the impact of their combined presence. When all three are on the pitch, Arsenal’s expected goals from open play rise to 1.47 per match, compared with just 1.11 when one or more are missing. Nevertheless, fielding the trio is not a guaranteed cure.
Saka’s scoring form has waned, with only two goals in his last 14 league outings, while Ødegaard has found the net just once in his previous 21 appearances. The supporting cast must also step up: Noni Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli have contributed a combined three league goals this season, and Leandro Trossard has yet to score in his last 13 matches. Veteran striker Viktor Gyökeres, despite his limitations, leads Arsenal’s scoring charts with 12 league goals, nine of which have come against bottom‑half opposition. His ability to find the net against weaker teams could be crucial in the run‑in.
Arsenal’s players appear aware of the goal‑difference battle. Gabriel Martinelli told Sky Sports, "When you’re winning, you still want to push for more goals because we know the title race will be tight." That mindset, combined with their set‑piece expertise, suggests Arsenal possess the tools to finish ahead. While Arsenal’s attack shows signs of life, Newcastle’s offensive rebuild remains a headache for Eddie Howe. The Magpies have slumped to their lowest goals‑per‑game average (1.41) since the 2021/22 season, when they finished 11th.
Sitting 14th after a third consecutive loss to Bournemouth, their high‑priced signings – Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa – have failed to deliver, combining for no goals in 24 league games. Howe may turn to Danish youngster William Osula as his primary striker, after Osula’s recent brace. Yet Alexander Isak, who previously hit 20 goals in back‑to‑back seasons, has not replicated that form, and the team’s top scorer is now midfielder Bruno Guimarães with nine goals.
Elsewhere, Brentford’s goalless draw with Fulham featured a bright moment from Mikkel Damsgaard, who could trouble Manchester United on Monday Night Football. Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest on Friday Night Football, while Arsenal and Newcastle meet in the Saturday Night Football slot, with Sky Sports providing live coverage. In summary, Arsenal’s technical issues have been dissected in previous columns, emphasizing the need for Havertz to start against City. As the season reaches its climax, the Gunners must blend their set‑piece dominance with a revitalised open‑play attack, keep their key players healthy, and hope that the goal‑difference equation swings in their favour.
The title may still be decided by who can fire more bullets on target in the final stretch.