Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports feature where Adam Bate mixes statistical insight with personal opinion to dissect the most pressing narratives emerging from the latest Premier League fixtures. This week’s focus revolves around the ongoing saga at Chelsea and the broader implications for other clubs.
Earlier this month, former Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior took the opportunity to remind everyone that, despite the constant chatter surrounding his tenure, his side had managed to climb to fourth place in the league table shortly after he assumed charge. That achievement, however, seems increasingly distant now that the Blues have slipped to ninth under his stewardship. The most recent defeat at the hands of Manchester United marked the club’s fourth consecutive loss, with three of those setbacks occurring on home turf. This mirrors a previous spell of three straight defeats at Stamford Bridge, a run that even included an unexpected loss to Oldham when Tony Cascarino was leading the line for Chelsea.
These are undeniably strange times for the London club. While Rosenior remains vociferously defensive of his record, the situation is beginning to look precarious. Fans have grown accustomed to his robust rebuttals, and he has been particularly adamant that the loss to United was unfair. "They had one chance on our goal when we were reduced to ten men after an injury, they scored, and then we faced wave after wave of attacks, countless crosses into the box, moments we simply failed to capitalise on.
I think we hit the woodwork four or five times," Rosenior explained. "I won’t lie, I can’t comment on things I haven’t witnessed. I saw a side that dominated from the first whistle to the last, but we need to manage those moments better.
That’s what’s costing us points right now." To a certain extent, Rosenior’s assessment holds water, even if Opta data suggests only three of those attempts actually struck the frame. Chelsea’s clinical finishing has been abysmal. Since mid‑March they have become the only Premier League side that has not found the net, despite registering the highest number of shots on target in the division.
That statistic is striking, yet it must be contextualised. Manchester United enjoyed the clearer opening in the encounter, and Chelsea’s numerous chances were largely low‑quality – a recurring theme throughout Rosenior’s recent run of poor form. In fact, over the last ten games only Wolverhampton Wanderers have posted a lower expected‑goals‑per‑shot ratio than Chelsea.
The difficulty of penetrating the penalty area has become a chronic problem. The Blues generate a volume of attempts, but the majority are not genuine scoring opportunities, which explains why they can dominate possession yet still fail to register a goal. A deeper worry may lie in the personnel rather than the tactical blueprint.
It is hardly a coincidence that United’s Matheus Cunha, a player who has consistently outperformed his expected‑goals metric in the Premier League, was the one to deliver the decisive finish. Every attacker Chelsea fielded on Saturday has, over the course of their Premier League careers, under‑delivered relative to their expected‑goals figures.
Football often hinges on fine margins, and while it is reasonable to believe the Blues will break their drought soon, the contrast with prolific strikers such as Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah – who both turned the tide for their teams this weekend – suggests that Chelsea’s misfortune may be baked into their current model. Switching focus, Jamie Carragher recently turned his attention to Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz ahead of the Merseyside derby.
After Wirtz amassed four goals and three assists, Carragher told Sky Sports, "I would describe his performance as neat and tidy, not really hurting the opposition in terms of assists and goals." He continued, "Considering the size and quality of the pitch, this is a game he should be winning, a game he should be controlling and dictating." Although Liverpool eventually secured victory through a late Virgil van Dijk header, Wirtz’s contribution was limited. The post‑match statistics highlighted why the £116 million signing from Bayer Leverkusen remains difficult to evaluate.
While he tops the league for open‑play chances created – second only to Bruno Fernandes – the nature of those chances raises questions. Four of the chances credited to Wirtz were either a clever reverse pass to Cody Gakpo that went unanswered, a fizzed ball to Alexander Isak that was comfortably saved, or simple passes that led to speculative shots.
The eye test painted a different picture: Wirtz struggled to retain possession in a high‑tempo match, was out‑muscled by opponents, and failed to impose his presence as many had hoped. He recorded only one successful dribble and did not register a single shot. When he is allowed to flow, Wirtz can be a joy to watch, gliding across the grass with a work rate that places him fourth in the league for total runs this season. Yet his output has lacked the swagger and risk‑taking that characterised Rayan Cherki’s emergence at Manchester City.
At Leverkusen, Wirtz was a leader; at Liverpool, he has yet to assume that role. His undeniable talent – coupled with a long‑term contract – buys him patience, but that patience is not limitless. "He is in a new league, under a new manager, in a new system," Carragher noted.
"But we are ten months in now. We need to see a lot more." Turning to the north, Newcastle United continue to play with the intensity that defined Eddie Howe’s tenure.
They rank second in the league for sprint distance and have been among the top five for that metric in each of Howe’s five seasons. However, this high‑energy approach is now exposing defensive frailties.
Newcastle’s pressing style can create gaps when the back line fails to push up quickly enough. Those spaces were evident in their 2‑1 loss to Bournemouth, a match where they never truly controlled the proceedings. Howe insisted the margins were fine, yet Andoni Iraola’s side produced superior chances, reflected in an expected‑goals total of 2.99 – the highest Newcastle have conceded this season, just edging past the previous week’s tally against Crystal Palace. Since the end of January, Newcastle’s expected goals against figure is worse than every other Premier League side except bottom‑placed Wolves, placing them among the league’s leakiest defenses.
The home record is particularly alarming. Newcastle have been defeated in five of their last six league games at St James’ Park – a number that matches the total losses they endured across the entire previous season and the two seasons before that combined.
Their once‑formidable fortress now feels porous. A vulnerable Newcastle inevitably reflects on Eddie Howe.
Even the often‑criticised Steve Bruce never sank as low in the table as Newcastle currently sit. Consequently, Howe’s selection choices and his role in recruitment are under intense scrutiny. Players such as Yoane Wissa have struggled to make an impact, Anthony Elanga has again underperformed, and Nick Woltemade has become a problem that needs solving. Howe recognises that answers must be found at the top end of the pitch, yet it is the defensive shortcomings that are currently the most damning.
In summary, Chelsea’s recent woes stem from a blend of poor finishing, questionable shot quality, and perhaps a mis‑firing roster, while Newcastle’s high‑pressing philosophy is being undermined by defensive lapses. Both clubs face critical junctures where tactical adjustments, personnel changes, or a shift in mindset could determine whether they reverse their downward trajectories or continue to flounder in the Premier League race.